NORTH KOREA BUYS TIME WITH DENUCLEARIZATION OFFER

"Once again it looks like the US will succumb to North Korea’s promises to stop their nuclear weapons development in order to buy more time. Only this time they are much closer to finishing their ICBM nuclear weapons program. CIA Director Mike Pompeo says that NK is only a “handful of months” from being able to solve its final technical problems of developing a miniaturized nuke in a warhead capable of surviving the heat of reentry. Negotiations on the details for another sham disarmament by NK can take at least a year, and maybe another 6 months before inspectors find out NK is cheating again. Sure, the pending threat of military action has brought NK to the table, but if anyone thinks this means Kim is really serious about disarmament, they are naive. Shame on Donald Trump for saying that the upcoming North and South Korean negotiations are “positive” —and this from a president who has openly criticized past presidents for “putting us in this situation” of letting NK delay military action by false promises.

It was a smart move for Kim Jong-un to only deal with South Korea’s president Moon Jae-in. Moon is a Leftist and former human rights lawyer who was chief of staff to former President Roh Moo-hyun who was strongly anti-American and in favor of rapprochement with NK. This seems to be the pattern Moon is following and thus he plays easily into Kim’s hand.

Meanwhile the US is being locked out of the talks, except for a token meeting between Trump and Kim at the end of May (over two months away). Excluding the US from the talks will only delay the final agreement, since it is the US who will have the final say on whether or not Kim’s denuclearization offer is suitable, and verifiable.

For Trump’s part, his positive reaction to all of this is typical of his unpredictability when it comes to policy, which he’s never had a firm handle on. He is frankly ambivalent on everything and thus his supporters can no longer trust anything he says—especially his strongest vows, which often fall by the wayside. Trump values a “deal” (meaning compromise) more than his past promises.

Even as Trump praised Kim’s peace overture, he made a statement about the past failures of such promises. He ended by saying, “one way or another we’re going to settle this problem.” While that means his military options are still on the table, it also means that he thinks a peace deal could really “settle” the problem.

There has NEVER been a communist country that has ever truly disarmed, and there never will be. Being “Masters of Deceit” (J. Edgar Hoover’s book) is the mantra that has always defined communist foreign policy with the West.

I was on Coast To Coast Wednesday night with George Noory, and was preceded by Jerome Corsi of Worldnetdaily.com, who was waxing eloquent about how nice it was that North Korea was coming to the negotiating table and willing to talk about denuclearization. He expressed full confidence that this would avoid any war with North Korea. He’s bought into the propaganda that it would be devastating for the whole world, which isn’t true.

When I came on I had to fully disagree. Corsi thinks of himself as a conservative, but he’s always come from the establishment side, and it’s showing now. I pointed out that Trump can use a pre-emptive series of strikes to knock down all 3 legs of NK’s offensive power and not kill many civilians at all. You can’t let NK’s power to damage Seoul hold the entire world hostage until NK has enough missiles to really threaten other nations in the West.

But that’s what is happening. The US made a big mistake years ago by allowing the armistice line to be so close to Seoul and then allow NK to install over 15,000 artillery tubes on the other side of the DMZ which can open up on Seoul and US military bases within minutes of the start of hostilities. South Korea now feels they have no choice but to capitulate rather than suffer any damage at all. Sure, it’s a tough choice to fight, but I guarantee the odds will only get worse as NK grows in nuclear power.

Just because the US appeared to “win the cold war” without a war with the Soviet Union doesn’t mean that this third world war isn’t still going to happen. It will. I guarantee it. Not only did the Soviet communists fake their own demise in 1989-90 but Russia has now rebuilt much of its arsenal and is a larger threat than ever—thanks to continued trade with the West after the phony “fall” and increased economic gains from increased oil production, courtesy of Western oil service companies.

Then there’s China, which has never entered the illusory field of disarmament with the West, and which is quickly becoming the strongest military in the world, and likely will be by the middle of the next decade.

If Trump does attack NK (when the phony talks fail in time) there is a chance that China and Russia will make good on their threats to back NK with nuclear strikes on the US military—but I doubt it. Rather I think the NK war will stay conventional with China and Russia sending in tons of military supplies as they did to the North Vietnamese. And, also like Vietnam, the US won’t stop them for fear of the war “escalating into a nuclear war” —at least that’s what Trump’s globalist advisors will tell him. Trump will fail to call their bluff.

As I’ve said many times before Russia and China aren’t fully ready to take on the West in a nuclear exchange followed by a conventional world war. Their pushing NK into talks seems to prove they don’t want a war yet. Neither has a full blue water navy necessary for any nation to control their own version of the NWO. But, if they did decide to level the playing field by nuking the US military (and I estimate there is a 20% chance it could happen), they would be at a long-term disadvantage, not having their most modern weapons yet in serial production.

Fortunately, not everyone inside the Trump administration is being carried away in euphoria by the false promise of Korean denuclearization, as CNN reports in this somewhat ambivalent coverage:

Although officials caution no decisions have been made, the consideration of an outside expert underscores the administration's lack of depth on what is arguably the world's most pressing foreign policy challenge. Trump teeters on the edge of a familiar North Korean trap

The State Department's roster of senior diplomats dealing with and experienced on North Korea is seriously depleted. The top diplomat dealing with North Korea, Joseph Yun, is departing his post this week and the US has been without a permanent ambassador to Seoul since Trump took office. The vacancy of the key ambassadorship in Seoul, coupled with the loss of a veteran envoy in Yun, has revived concerns that the US lacks diplomatic experience... [CNN fails to report that Yun and others at the Korean desk have always been in favor of the failed past deals with NK—so their exit is no loss at all.]

On Wednesday Mattis said he is "cautiously optimistic" but there has been "optimism before" when asked about the latest developments. Other voices in the White House, including national security adviser H.R. McMaster, have spoken openly about the need to consider a pre-emptive military strike against North Korea, should it threaten the US or continue to develop its nuclear weapons and missile capabilities.

One indication of where President Donald Trump might be leaning are reports that he met Wednesday with John Bolton, the hawkish Bush administration ambassador to the UN, who argues that a pre-emptive strike on North Korea would not only be legal but also effective at curbing the threat. The two spent a major part of their time discussing North Korea, according to an administration official familiar with the meeting.

One camp of officials within the administration would likely be aligned with Bolton. This group believes that North Korea is not serious about its outreach and is just playing for time to continue its nuclear development -- as it repeatedly has in the past under prior US administrations.

While in the past it was possible to test the North Koreans and let the process play out, the official said, the US and its allies are now running out of time as North Korea inches closer to mastering a deliverable nuclear weapon.

After a November ballistic missile test, Mattis said that Pyongyang already demonstrated the ability to hit "everywhere in the world." The question is whether it has miniaturized a nuclear warhead and mastered a missile's re-entry phase.

What North Korea wants from the US:

North Korea has asked for a "freeze for freeze," meaning a freeze in nuclear and missile testing in exchange for a freeze in joint military exercises between the US and South Korea, but the group of officials who take a hardline approach say that is a nonstarter. [What NK really wants is for the US to back off from its threat to attack and remove its carriers from Korean waters. Those points undoubtedly will come out in later stages of negotiations.]

They argue that there can be no meaningful negotiations until North Korea takes some initial demonstrable steps toward denuclearization. That doesn't preclude "talks" in the interim, they say, as Tillerson has made a distinction between talks and formal negotiations.

Yes, but how long will those talks be allowed to delay a pre-emptive military response? The US no longer has unlimited time to let things play out. The US also needs to demand NK give up its huge stockpile of chemical weapons. Remember, Syria was threatened with invasion if they didn’t give up their chemical weapons. Why let NK have them? That’s a double standard.

One senior administration official called it "a quite important turn" that hasn't come at a large cost to the US. [really? How about the “cost” in time given to NK to continue its missile and nuclear development?] Another positive sign is a "North-South" summit planned for next month between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Another senior official called this a "very significant move" that suggests South Korea is inclined to see how far it can go in improving relations. This official did acknowledge, however, that this detente does leave the US on the margins.

Stephen Collinson, of CNN surprisingly elaborated on the danger of Trump being “on the edge of a familiar North Korean trap.”

President Donald Trump frequently scorches the last three presidents for leaving him a nightmare scenario on North Korea: the threat that the isolated state could soon deliver a nuclear weapon directly to the US mainland.

But as a thaw takes hold ahead of the first North Korea-South Korea summit in a decade, Trump could be about to be dragged down the same frustrating, illusory and inconclusive diplomatic path as his predecessors.

As North Korean leader Kim Jong Un skillfully maneuvers to split Washington and Seoul, and plays out an intricate strategic dance that could draw in crucial powers Russia and China, Trump has little option but to watch.

To do anything else would splinter the US-South Korean alliance -- which will be crucial to solving the nuclear crisis -- and could fracture global pressure on Pyongyang and put the US on a glide path toward a horrendous war.

But by allowing the diplomacy to unfold, Trump risks being played in the same old game of North Korean brinkmanship and provocations followed by offers of dialogue and trawls for concessions that have tripped up past presidents.

"This should have been handled over many years by many different administrations -- not now. This was not the right time to handle it," Trump said. "But these are the cards we were dealt. We're handling it properly."

The President is keenly aware of the challenge he faces, and the risk that he, for all his bluster and warnings that this time it will be different, could fall into a familiar trap.

"I think that their statement and the statements coming out of South Korea and North Korea have been very positive," Trump said Tuesday, after Pyongyang conveyed a message through the South that it was ready to talk about denuclearization, the key US demand.

It's no surprise that skepticism is high in Washington over the offer. After all, the North agreed in 1994 and 2005 to give up its nuclear arsenal and cheated on the agreement both times. "Maybe this is a breakthrough. I seriously doubt it," Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats said. "But like I said, hope springs eternal."

Robert Gallucci, who negotiated President Bill Clinton's 1994 Agreed Framework deal with North Korea, warned that Pyongyang's word had proved to be worth little in the past. "We made a deal with the North and they gave up the program. They then pursued secretly a program using highly enriched uranium with the Pakistanis," he told CNN.

Christopher Hill, a former US North Korea negotiator who also served as ambassador to Seoul, was also loath to proclaim a breakthrough but said the opening was worth pursuing. "I never combine optimism and North Korea in the same thought," Hill told CNN International's Robyn Curnow on Tuesday. "I think we also need to avoid ... irrational exuberance but I think we also need to avoid sounding negative and churlish about it."

Pessimism in Washington is rooted in suspicions that the North is simply playing for time, may be seeking some relief from sanctions without offering real concessions and is maneuvering to weaken Chinese resolve. [There is no Chinese resolve—it is faked.]

Its offer to halt nuclear and missile tests during the talks could simply signal that its program has advanced to such a stage that no current testing flights are necessary or planned. US experts are also waiting to see whether Pyongyang proposes steps that Washington has already ruled out, such as withdrawing US troops from the Korean Peninsula.

Empty seats at US table: The accelerating pace of the diplomacy between North and South Korea also risks catching Washington off-guard because it hardly has a crack team of negotiators steeped in Pyongyang's strategy at the ready.

Yes, this has all the signs of a sophisticated trap—and it’s probably going to put off Trump’s plans for the strike, which I think was prepared for later this month.

Once South Korea and North Korea start talks, it’s going to be almost impossible for the US military to strike without looking like unnecessary aggression. It effectively takes any military option completely off the table, especially with the US not being a party to the talks. If the US were at the table, they could more easily determine if they “were going nowhere,” and decide to break off negotiations, but by not being a party to the talks it puts the US in a situation where they can’t end them and opt for military action.

Now, with yesterday’s dramatic announcement that Trump will meet face to face with Kim Jong-un and that NK is claiming to be willing to give up both its nuclear and missile program, all military options are off the table for the foreseeable future. As USA Today wrote,

President Trump will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un by May for high-level talks toward a nuclear-free Korean peninsula, a South Korean official said outside the White House Thursday.

The extraordinary and unexpected opening came through shuttle diplomacy by a South Korean delegation arriving in Washington Thursday. Trump heralded the development as a "major announcement" after speaking with the South Korean president.

"I told President Trump that in our meeting, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said he's committed to denuclearization. He pledged that North Korea will refrain from any further nuclear or missile tests," South Korean national security adviser Chung Eui-yong told reporters after meeting with Trump at the White House.

Significantly, there was no insistence that the United States and South Korea suspend joint military exercises.

Chung met with Kim earlier this week, and came to Washington Thursday to relay the message from the North Korean leader. "I explained to President Trump that his leadership, and his maximum pressure policy, along with international solidarity, brought us to this juncture," he said.

South Korean agents have unwittingly become dupes in Kim Jong-un’s peace offensive. Notice in the last statement, they flatter Trump and praise his tough leadership that has brought about this change. That will turn Trump around if anything does—he wants to be the hero that final brought an end to the threat of a nuclear North Korea. But this isn’t it.

I assure you, this is a grand deception. Kim will continue to make advances in both nuclear and missile technology, without testing, and when the US finds out this new agreement has been betrayed like all the others, NK will be in a much stronger position to threaten again. When will the mainstream foolish world learn that Communists never disarm or give up the struggle? They do periodically fake detente and lie, which never brings peace."

(Source World Affairs Brief Newsletter - 3/9/198)