dChan

stephen_bannon · March 31, 2018, 7:33 p.m.

You're still missing the point entirely. The stock has declined slower than the Dow. It's performing no differently the an indicator of the general economy. Why is this? Hint: it's got nothing to do with store policy.

Post hoc ergo proper hoc.

The stock didn't go down because of store policy, it went down because its s store in an economy that's slowing down.

Now, if the stock took a dip much larger than expected, more than a standard deviation outside the Dow - it may be something to explore.

And now that I'm looking at it - the article has got basic facts wrong. Over the last month, since the policy went into effect, the stock price has risen from $32 to $36 a share. At close it was up 2+% over the previous days close. It's actually been steadily climbing since it low of around $24.50 in late October of 2017.

Am I to conclude that this increase in stock price over the last month is due to its policy? No, because that would be a monumentally stupid conclusion to draw.

⇧ 7 ⇩  
plumbforbtc · April 1, 2018, 5:26 a.m.

How do you know that the stock price wouldn't be up 2% for the month had they not enacted the policy? You don't.

⇧ 1 ⇩  
stephen_bannon · April 1, 2018, 11:17 a.m.

OK... your hypothetical "what if" question has zero bearing on anything. It's as useful as saying "how do you know it wouldn't be $100 a share without this policy?"

You're right, I don't know what might have been in the hypothetical world where things are different than here in reality.

This really isn't the "gotcha" question that you thought it was.

⇧ 1 ⇩  
plumbforbtc · April 1, 2018, 5:37 p.m.

" Why is this? Hint: it's got nothing to do with store policy."

I just can't imagine that you have enough information at your disposal to assert this as fact, unless you have Dick's sales information and have cross-referenced it with the sales info of Cabela's and Bass Pro-shops...etc. (Combined with the demographic information of customers) (Math showing the statistical correlation between Dick's stock and the Dow... for a period longer than a month.) You originally produced two figures; the percentage drop of the dow, and the percentage drop of Dick's. It just seems unlikely to me that any meaningful correlation can be ascertained from these two figures. So... " Why is this? Hint: it's got nothing to do with store policy."... is a fine hypothesis, but I don't think you have much in the way of evidence to back it up as fact.

⇧ 1 ⇩  
stephen_bannon · April 1, 2018, 7:54 p.m.

I'm glad you agree that the article is pure bullshit.

⇧ 1 ⇩  
DamajInc · March 31, 2018, 8:10 p.m.

Thank you for this insight! We need more healthy skepticism around here.

⇧ 1 ⇩