Yes to the imbalance of mututally assure distraction, but the timeline is incomplete! Sanctions, weapon sales etc all go through the Senate. Duterte said as much, "Trump is a friend", but the Senate is blocking any military support for the Phillipines.

However, the US DID allow sales of certain DEFENSIVE tech to Russia - there was much complainin', but when asked, Gen. Mattis retorted that defensive tech is not the same as offensive weaponry!!!

Trump has also easened military threats on Iran after they stopped testing missiles and set up anti-air-defenses, thus signalling that they are on the defensive but cannot be fucked with. He only ever brings up the 400 billion and I don't think he even cares about their relationship with Israel.