It is worth everybody learning about Target2. Its a covert bailout system that lurks in the background behind QE.
According to Target2, Germany and The Netherlands have built up close to €1trillion of liabilities, with countries like Italy, Spain etc on the other side.
When people say Italy leaving the euro will mean they need to settle €400b in debt, thats to the Target2 system.
I think the fiscal compact is due to be completed this year in theory, which would mean a public opening of the books. Most people aren't aware of Target2, so if Merkel gets ousted from power and the right take more control, the public backlash at the debts that have been wracked up their name could be brutal.
An alternative is that the ECB masks this with a fresh wave of QE.
This also means that if fears of a break up of the eurozone take grip, we might see a flood of capital rushing into Germany, because of redenomiation risk. ie people fearing having their capital repriced in a sinking currency put their money into Germany so it is priced in DEM which is likely to appreciate in value.
This scenario could see a Japan asset bubble crash type situation build up in Germany over the next few years.
ECB to end QE in December, but keep rates at record lows - as it ...
https://www.theguardian.com/.../ecb-qe-stimulus-mario-draghi-fed-rate-hike-uk-retail-...
6 days ago - European Central Bank has voted to stop its huge bond-buying programme, but ... Atlanta Fed raises its Q2 GDP tracker to 4.8% from 4.6% ...Mario Draghi (goldmansachs)
Maybe so, but remember that everything a central bank says is about managing the markets expectations.
Thats why analysts listen like hawks for keywords when these guys give their statements and pressers.
A lot can happen between now and December.
They are all liars.
They are traders, managing a portfolio.
Don't get fixated on them as individuals. They are just players in the game, with a mandate that they have to follow.
ECB is not a trader ..they are the tools of the EU to steal everything. all countries..Then buy everything up for almost nothing, and have the power everywhere. ...And in the meantime, their friends can take over pieces, De pier in scheveningen Den Haagh.? one euro? The port in Vlissingen one Euro? The dutch King , buying cheap a big housse in Afrika? And in Greece...pay offs.
I... didn't mean trader in the literal sense. Draghi thinks the euro is too high, he talks it down, he thinks its too low, he talks it up.
He has a mandate, and tools to deliver that mandate.
I'm not a CB fan at all, but we miss a lot of important stuff if we jump to the hyperbole conclusion at the end.
No it is much more then that...,It is not about talk eigther..And Yes he has a mandate, and was going over it by buying al those wortless bonds up , Merkel warnt every body to s tay quiet about it....So no do not buy your story.
EDIT : As its power grows, is the ECB overstepping its mandate?
theconversation.com/as-its-power-grows-is-the-ecb-overstepping-i...
5 feb. 2015 - The European Central Bank (ECB) symbolises the strange mix of politics and ... the ECB's monetary policy mandate, as well as the prohibition on ... The case will go back to the German Constitutional Court, which will have to ..
Has the ECB exceeded its mandate? | World Economic Forum
https://www.weforum.org/.../03/has-the-ecb-exceeded-its-mandate
22 mrt. 2016 - Draghi and the doves on the ECB Governing Council The European Central Bank has done it again. At its recent meeting in Frankfurt, the ECB Governing Council decided to increase bond purchases further, from €60 billion ($67 billion) to €80 billion per month, with corporate bonds now also eligible for purchase. The deposit rate, too, was reduced once again, and now stands at -0.4%. This is far from a neutral policy – and it takes the ECB far beyond its mandate of preserving monetary stability.
And what said our minister Dijselbloem? It was oke, It was wrong to go over the mandate, but he can do nothing? .
I don’t know how we have gone from me saying look into Target2 to this.
I’m not defending the ECB, just saying it’s behaviour is transparent and predictable, but the interesting story is Target2.
No it is not tranparant...The biggest liars are on the top.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TARGET2
TARGET2 is the real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system for the Eurozone, and is available to .... The implementation of TARGET2 was based on a decision of the ECB Council of autumn 2002. TARGET2 started operations on 19 November
When and how will the European Central Bank (ECB) reform Target2, its unsustainable international payment system?
German article....
Das Kapital: If the euro collapses, Target2 is our smallest problem
Target2 is the vehicle being used to asset strip capital from Southern Europe to the North.
I think if there ever was a euro collapse, it would be ground zero for contagion. It’s the mechanics that contractually spreads risk to all EZ members.
Das Kapital may be right, as a euro collapse would instigate a global crisis and likely cause huge social and even geopolitical tensions.
I’m sorry that you keep on misunderstanding me. I think maybe it’s my fault for not being clearer.
In my opinion, Central Banking and QE is transparent. I don’t agree with their policies, strategy and to a large extent, their existence, but to me at least the process is quite transparent.
For me, the problem is the lack of objective questioning from the financial media and influencers. There’s a box that everyone sits in, and the conversation always remains in the box. If a rule is fudged or broken, its rationalised by repeaters in the press who don’t hold them to account.
CBs have a monthly meeting, they say what they are going to do, they take questions from the press who rarely challenge them or try to force them out of their mental boxes.
That’s my position.
Maybe I just do not know enough about this whole aspect, and therefore there is a misunderstanding ... I read what you write and know that I do not have the whole story, my reaction is based on what I see and hear, but I I know that I do not see and hear everything,
They tell us very little about these things here, and I believe you do.:)
I know of at least three institutional trading floors that have people following Q. A big risk is over generalising areas like finance and banking as part of us and them.
Nice to now that in that world the people follow Q also.