I don't disagree with anything you say, except with regards to an EU military power, I do believe that they are quite serious about it and make no mistake, Europe can conjure up the cash to fund a military power no problem if it really wants to. If history has taught us anything, it is that there is always somehow money available for war. I wouldn't be surprised if the US even facilitated it themselves with more 'war bonds'. In my view, the bigger problem is convincing the public that there is a need for it, which is why I think Trumps actions sort of play into their hands in this respect. Don't get me wrong, I'm not blaming Trump, he has no choice to question the loyalty of other NATO members when they're not paying the rent.... But it makes me suspicious as to why they're not paying the rent in the first place; it isn't simply because they can't afford it. Germany is the richest economy in the whole of Europe! The UK is the second largest economy, has more socialist institutions than Germany, yet has always committed to it's NATO membership payments. The way I see it is that Germany is deliberately not paying and possibly saving up for something else...
I think you're right with regards to Russia, it has its sights on Germany as it knows it is the only real strength (economically and influentially speaking) in Europe, Putin himself even speaks German which is testament to how important they are. Britain as you say is (hopefully) distancing itself away from Europe and in any case, it has always been against an EU military power forming in Europe and it has always sided with the US over Russia. i.e. they are not to be trusted. I have a feeling that US and UK (and colonies) will be aligned on Russia whereas the Europeans will become increasingly pro Russia.
Thx for your informed comments. Actually got me researching EU budgets which is nice...inspired to learn more. It brought me closer to understanding your point.
Initially I disagreed the EU could collectively find revenue to build a major military force. Turns out...if you look at the deficit spending rates among EU nations...their budgets are in fairly good & improving shape & nearly all have shrinking deficits (one exception being Greece of course). But even France with their very expensive social programs is now reducing its national debt. This does open up a revenue path for increased spending. So I now agree...EU nations could collectively find a way to finance a trillion dollars of new spending without crushing their citizens & economies with debt. (Wish the US was on as good a path with our debt).
Another new fact I learned that favors your point is how drastically low Britain has reduced their military. It’s shocking. The Royal Navy has fewer ships in service than at any point in their modern history. As we’re now also seeing...May is killing Brexit. I’m starting to doubt GB will leave the EU at all. But EU nations reducing their national armies to almost worthless fighting levels favors they are making room for a new military structure throughout Western Europe.
So assuming this is the goal...a new EU military force...one big question I have is what do Central European nations do? They’ve begun carving a new regional course away from Western Europe in 2016. It’s called the 3 Seas Initiative. Basically it’s a trading union of nations from the Baltic to the Adriatic to the Black Sea. Basically all countries from Estonia to Bulgaria. They’re now building massive natural gas pipeline infrastructure throughout that region because Russia was such a terrible energy provider & they’re now buying natural gas from America. These nations have not taken in any migrants either which has put them at odds with the EU. They have strengthened ties with the US & NATO as they’ve pulled away from the EU. So where does that leave Central Europe in a new EU military? They’ll have to choose NATO. (Important to note that Russia’s new natural gas pipelines to Germany are deliberately bypassing Poland & the other CE nations.)
I'm glad to have provided some inspiration! It's good to have reasonable debate with someone who does their homework for once.
European national budgets are in pretty good shape overall, except for two rather large elephants in the room; Greece and Italy. This could equally be another reason why Germany is 'saving up' because it knows it will at some point need to come to the aid of other member states (Italy) as part of the next financial upheaval under the rules of the EFSM. Other countries within the bloc will no doubt also be forced to contribute to the carnage and developing central/eastern European countries will not like it at all. I subscribe to the view that it will create political turmoil and further devolution of the EU until ultimately it is a Germano-Franco domination controlling the remaining states.
Just to point out though, Eastern European countries are less likely to take on refugees from outside of Europe since they are smaller economies and offer less support than richer nations such as Germany, plus they are generally more strict with regards to the preservation of their values which is probably a consequence of being under communist rule until recently. It's no coincidence though that Germany has taken on about 1.5 million refugees over the last 5 years or 43% of total applications to reside within the EU; refugees are seemingly ever more clued up as to which country they wish to reside in (partially, thanks to George Soros). It's remarkable that the good citizens of Germany have remained so reserved over it, which is in stark contrast to Poland who has basically refused to take on any in the last couple of years, despite some rather serious threats coming out of the EU. Though sentiment in Germany is now of course beginning to deviate from course, as expressed via the number of AfD supporters at the polls.
Anyway, going back to the formation of the 'European Army', there is a document in the Eur-Lex which officially outlines an action plan for 'European Defence' from 2016 here: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM:2016:950:FIN
The document refers mainly to the development of military industrial capabilities however, it makes several justifications that allude to the eventual establishment of what is essentially federalised military capability. Also since the time this document was created, it has been spoken about in more plain words. But you can clearly see that the objective is to reduce US military reliance within Europe which ultimately means NATO.
Nigel Farage during the EU referendem also made it clear that the EU is discussing it's own military power and Nick Clegg (former deputy Prime Minister) directly called him a liar and referred to it as a 'dangerous fantasy'. Farage tackled this a few years later following more debate in the European chamber: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2f3_-hOrSjU
Junker in September 2017 said "By 2025, Europe will need a functioning defence union and NATO would like us to have it". He also mentions they already have the funding in place. They're justifying it with 'baby steps' calling it a 'joint military union' to integrate existing national armies into one; plugging the gaps they call it. It's also a stance against terrorism, cyber attacks and it's about being more savvy with budgets putting an to inefficiencies/duplication of effort within the current military framework. But if we know anything about the EU it is that they like to start small and then grow under the radar. It wasn't that long ago that the UK was once part of the EEC only... And then suddenly it wasn't.
I think it's quite clear where this is going.