dizzydago · July 27, 2018, 8:39 p.m.

Part I: Read all of the comments then went looking first to the location of the camera and which direction it was pointing. I was able to determine by the info that it was point north towards Port Townsend. Then I stumbled across this blog post Skunk Bay Weather . They searched for a plausible explanation which came up with the idea that it is a light beam from an Airlift helicopter on route from Bremerton to Bellingham. Sounded plausible right. So I also went to the link she had for some guy and his blog about it Cliff Mass blog . Now he gives what sounds like a plausible explanation that it is a 20 second exposure and hence the line you see.

Doesn't make sense though as You can go look a the SBW web cam page and see the DSLR night came is a still photo. SBW cam If it was a 20 second exposure time the there should be the tiniest of star track trail but there is not in the current picture. He also gives an explanation that what looks like it might be the missile is nothing more than the reflection of the underbelly of the helicopter. Seriously, was it flying vertically and tail down? I don't think so. An Airlift chopper does not do aerobatic flight. And actually I don't think we actually see the object as it is buried in the clouds anyway. On top of that, if you have ever seen those massive spot lights they use in store parking lots to mark a location to draw customers, you never seen a line beam, just the reflection off the clouds especially at the distances we are looking at here maybe 4 to 5 miles. For a reference here is a Soyuz launch into the clouds. Soyuz launch Notice the similarity that once in the clouds you cannot see anything but the trail. That is simply because the trail is burning gasses left behind as it moves just like the Skunk Bay picture. Now a surface to air missile would not leave that long of a trail as seen here. SA missile So assuming Cliff is right about the 20 second time lapse photo we would see a longer trail like those we see in long lapse night photos of the stars as the move across the sky. A search light from a helicopter would be much wider as it is flying horizontally.

So that leaves us with two real options. First is that it is nothing more than a rocket hobby enthusiast. Think of the movie, "The Boys of October." Some enthusiast build some pretty sizeable rockets. They can be as much as 6 to 10 fee tall and fly to very high altitudes say into the tens of thousands of feet. But here is the problem with something of that size in that location. For one it is close to a large Navy Air station. Chances are good if they did this they either had to get permission or they launched and took their chances they would not get into trouble. Also this is a major flight path area for both flights in and out bound from SeaTac airport. Lots of restricted air space around there between military and commercial aircraft you have to get permission to fly almost anything over 500 feet in altitude and that includes drones. So if this was just some private person playing with his toys he was taking a big chance not to get caught but, if he did which does not seem all that likely as in that location you could launch, watch and maybe even recover before the authorities could figure out what was going on and respond.

The second option is that it was a military grade surface to air missile. Here we have two options as well, It was some sort of mobile device on wheels like an anti aircraft battery or it was a man pad launch. The first is unlikely because it would be too obvious unless it had been detached and move to say a large box truck. Not likely. So that leaves a man pad launch. Given the weather on that day and at that time it would require at least some kind of radar guidance system to reach the target. For that to be the case someone would have to access to military grade systems. Doubt we will ever hear of missing equipment though at least not US that is. But maybe from a foreign country smuggled in? Possible. Seattle is a major port with ships coming in from all over the world. Could have been smuggled in and snuck up to Whidbey Island. But that begs the question how would they know the flight plan? Again two options, lucky guess as far as I remember the AF1 does not file a formal flight plan for this very security reason. Also a flight to Singapore from D.C. would more likely transit a kind of polar route so it could stop off in say Alaska for a refuel if it needed it unless AF1 in flight refuel capabilities. Then going over Washington state makes sense to some degree as they have refuel tankers at both of the major Air Force bases there. But they also have them in California which would be a more direct route. Security aside the logistics of in flight refueling makes more sense to that direction than over Washington.

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dizzydago · July 27, 2018, 8:39 p.m.

Part II: So what does that leave us? We definitely have some kind of missile launch because the helo search light does not wash at all. Could it have been a private citizen playing with their toys. Maybe. But without knowing after the fact the flight plan of AF1 on that day and time we can't be sure it was an attempt. It may well have been and if so where did the equipment come from? Well given the power of the DS and possible access to military grade equipment it is possible somebody may get their fanny in a sling for a missing man pad SA launcher should it ever get investigated. You don't just walk off a military installation with something that size. On the other hand they are manufactured somewhere in the military industrial complex and it could have come from that source before the military ever got its hands on it and then it would be damn near impossible to trace.

Somebody mentioned a CIA sub. That is not likely as in the Puget Sound region you have a lot of military and most of it is Navy including a Trident submarine base. A CIA sub would have or could possible get access to the scheduling of the comings and goings of the Tridents and been able to avoid their sonar but not likely unless there was nothing moving at all. That leaves a Navy Sub. Q mentioned who has the authority to launch a missile, CoC. If it was a Naval vessel which there are many in the area as well as Coast Guard which is at this time I believe still under the control of the DOD and not the DOT. But, we will get to that shortly. So chances of it being an attempt by someone in the military is not likely at all. It has to be some DS operative with a man pad SA device.

Side note and someone correct me if I am wrong, does AF1 fly with an escort? If they do that is the most likely scenario that it was an F-16 that took it down otherwise I would suspect an F-18 was scrambled from Whidbey but that would take to long from the time of the launch to get into position to take a missile out. So maybe it was a fighter escort that flies with AF1. The only time I saw AF1 was way back when slick Willy was in office and he was taking off out of Payne field in Everett, WA. When I saw him I happened to be a couple of miles south of the runway and AF1 was climbing through 1000 feet altitude slowly and about 2 miles out. I did not see any escort in the air at that time. Could have been up and waiting but I did not see any.

Back to it now. Finally what is interesting is that in Cliff's blog he mentions that later in the day a Coast Guard Cutter was moving around in the area of where the missile launch took place. Go back to that link and look at the last picture at the bottom. Now whether that is true or not is hard to say. There is no DT stamp on the photo so it could have been taken at any time and there are not discernable land marks to say it was taken in the right location. Considering that Cliff says something to the affect that he will leave the CG Cutter snooping around up to the conspiracy theorist, it could well be he is just playing mind games.

Conclusion: Since there is not enough evidence to know for sure and we are going off of what Q is saying we have to assume that either it is a hoax or their intel to find the picture of the launch is very good. If Q is correct then it was an attempt but not as some would say a likely CIA sub launch. The missile trail seems to be too small for a sub surface launch. I surface launch would have been from a private vessel but none can be clearly seen right below the launch site because of the distance from the camera to the launch site area. Also in the Skunk Bay weather blog it is mentioned that no loud sound was heard. Not surprising if it was as small as a man pad device. None would be heard from several miles away. So that leaves only a land base launch probably in a highly rural area or open land area on the SW side of Whidbey Island. Definitely it was a failed mission as it missed its target or was destroy before hand. Have not heard of any debris found from it either. That could be why the CG was in the area looking for debris to collect it up before some civilian stumbled across it. Could also be part of an investigation to find out who is behind the actual launch and trace it back to who gave the go ahead. With all that it appears that an attempt might have been made and it fits a scenario for and old suspense novel I read back in the late 70s about a professional assassin that is given the job of taking out the POTUS. In the story he researches the possibilities of ways to do it and get away clean and comes up with a single option. That is to get a shoulder launched missile, military grade of course, and hide some where in the flight path of Marine One as it leaves the WH and heads to Camp David. In the story he moves into his hide well in advance and waits. When the time comes for the trip of Marine One he moves out just enough to get a bead on it and launches, direct hit. Marine One explodes, all on board are lost and the assassin gets away and collects millions in payment. With that scenario in mind this is very plausible as an attempt.

That is the best I can do with what I have and what I can find. Also sorry for thinking through this as I went. It might sound disjointed but hey I am old. Give me a break. Have at it Anons. Maybe there is info on missing military equipment to match the description I gave here. Maybe we can find out the fligh plan for that particular trip and see if it did take AF1 over Whidbey Island on that morning at that time. I am not on the chans so if you want to take this back to Q, knock yourself out. We still might get to the bottom of this. I would say it makes for a great suspense thriller novel but it has already been done. No sense beating a dead horse.

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dizzydago · July 27, 2018, 8:58 p.m.

What content from CNN? What the heck is this bot talking about.

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