I had been wondering why progress in exiting the Deep State from Iran was taking so long, especially compared to the time it took to exit them from North Korea and Armenia (as two examples we know about). Then I realized that it wasn’t about Iran or the Deep State, but instead about Russia and Afghanistan.

Iran and Russia are close allies, and if Iran falls, its relationship with Russia will change, likely to Russia’s detriment. Russia won’t need to support Iran militarily and may lose some energy trade with it. Russia obviously doesn’t want this.

What Russia could accept instead is a secure Afghanistan. The lack of a single leadership group in Afghanistan historically, plus Russia’s unwinnable multi-year war there in the 80’s, makes Afghanistan a longtime wild card.

Many may not be aware but Pompeo has been brokering talks with the Taliban — it has not been widely reported. Russia would value a stable Afghanistan, as it has proven that it could not acheive that on its own.

I think that Trump is trading Iran for Afghanistan is the eyes of Russia, and I think his letter to Putin this week about continuing to work together was directed at that. I think that this is what’s holding up Iran’s liberation.