Australia discussing 'contingency' plans with United States over possible Taiwan conflict

Andrew Greene - 1 April 2021

A senior American diplomat says Australia and the United States are discussing contingency plans in case a military conflict erupts over Taiwan.

The US embassy's most senior diplomat currently posted to Australia, Michael Goldman, has also praised Australia for standing up to China's "economic coercion" during the past year.

"We have enormous respect for what Australia's done over the past year, in calling for a COVID investigation, in standing up to economic coercion, and I should say in the course of that proving that your economy is much more resilient in terms of your markets than you may have anticipated," he said.

In a wide-ranging discussion on an Australian National University podcast, Mr Goldman was asked to describe the significance of Taiwan in conversations between the US and its allies in the region, including Australia.

"I think we're committed as allies to working together, not only in making our militaries interoperable and functioning well together but also in strategic planning," Mr Goldman said.

"And when you look at strategic planning, it covers the range of contingencies that you've mentioned, of which Taiwan is obviously an important component," he added.

Across the region, concerns are growing over escalating tensions between China and the democratic nation of Taiwan, which China considers a renegade territory of its own.

Mr Goldman is the chargé d'affaires in Canberra, with President Joe Biden yet to announce a replacement for the Donald Trump-appointed former ambassador Arthur Culvahouse, who returned home earlier this year.

He said while the US was focused on the risk of Taiwan facing an "overt crude military intervention", it was "also concerned with all sorts of other aspects of coercion that don't quite reach the level of a military invasion".

"You can think of all sorts of things, ranging from a blockade to cyber incursions to, you know, lobbing missiles over the island. We're thinking about all sorts of those other things," Mr Goldman said.

Australia does not formally recognise Taiwan diplomatically, but the government regularly calls for a "peaceful resolution" of differences between China and the small independent nation through dialogue and without the threat or use of force or coercion.

During his conversation with the head of ANU's national security college, Professor Rory Medcalf, Mr Goldman did not indicate whether the Biden administration expected Australia to deploy any personnel in the event of an armed conflict over Taiwan.

Mr Goldman, who has previously been posted to Taiwan, said the US was "bound by a moral obligation and also a matter of legislation to help Taiwan with its legitimate self-defence needs".

In December, a senior Taiwanese politician called for greater security and economic cooperation with Australia as his nation tries to counter China's increasingly assertive military.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-01/australia-discuss-contingency-plans-us-possible-conflict-taiwan/100043826

Capitol Riot Exposed QAnon’s Violent Potential

Masood Farivar - March 31, 2021

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WASHINGTON - Many followers of the QAnon conspiracy theory see themselves as digital warriors battling an imaginary cabal of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who rule the world from the convenience of their keyboards.

But the January 6 U.S. Capitol riot by supporters of former President Donald Trump exposed the potential for violence in a movement that reared its head on the fringes of the internet in 2018 and now boasts millions of adherents around the world.

At least 34 QAnon adherents participated in the Capitol siege that disrupted the certification of President Joe Biden’s election victory, while 32 other QAnon followers committed ideologically motivated crimes before and after the Capitol insurrection — for a total of 66 who engaged in criminal conduct.

This is according to researchers at the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland, who have conducted the most comprehensive study yet of QAnon’s criminal activities. The conspiracy theorists' alleged offenses ranged from weapons possession to kidnapping and murder.

The 34 followers who took part in the Capitol riot represent more than 8% of the roughly 400 rioters who have been arrested to date; that shows a greater QAnon presence in the riot than had been previously estimated. The number is likely to increase as the FBI continues to investigate the Capitol riot, said Michael Jensen, a senior researcher at START.

In the latest case not included in the START report, a Texas-based lifestyle coach and her QAnon-following boyfriend were arrested last week on charges of storming the Capitol, according to a criminal complaint unsealed on Tuesday.

While the vast majority of QAnon believers don't advocate violence, the report shows the movement's potential for violence, an assessment first made by the FBI in 2019.

"Not all the violent extremists are jihadists or white supremacists, they come from these conspiracy theory groups as well," Jensen said in an interview.

Among the most notorious QAnon supporters arrested in the Capitol riot was Jacob Chansley, a 33-year-old Arizona man known as "QAnon Shaman." Sporting horns, a bearskin headdress, and red, white and blue face paint, he entered the Senate chamber where he left a threatening note for then Vice President Mike Pence that read, "It's Only a Matter of Time. Justice is Coming,” according to court documents.

The QAnon movement took off in late 2017 when an anonymous prognosticator began posting on the 4chan imageboard about an alleged plot by Satan-worshipping pedophiles and global elites seeking to undermine Trump. Though Q's predictions have failed to materialize, the conspiracy has lived on.

The first known QAnon-inspired criminal act occurred in June 2018 when QAnon follower Matthew Wright had a standoff with law enforcement officers in the middle of a bridge in Arizona, according to Travis View, co-host of the QAnon Anonymous Podcast.

Wright demanded the release of a Justice Department inspector general report on the Russia investigation that he believed would "reveal all of the things that the deep state was supposedly doing," View said.

"He was certainly motivated by QAnon ideology," View said.

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The following year, Anthony Comello killed suspected Gambino crime family boss Francesco Cali outside the victim’s home, believing Cali was part of the deep state — the suspected invisible, sinister power structure — according to View. It was one of three homicides linked to QAnon since 2018.

"A lot of QAnon followers have this sense of moral righteousness that they are fighting a very noble crusade and this allows them to [use it] as moral justification to do some very dangerous and criminal things, which is the case with all extremists," View said.

The START report on QAnon offenders is part of an ongoing study of radicalization in the United States. It comes amid heightened concern in the U.S. about domestic violent extremism in the wake of the Capitol riot.

Reflecting the makeup of the broader QAnon stratosphere, the QAnon offenders studied by START are a diverse group.

“Some come from affluent backgrounds, with good educations and work experience, and have no known criminal histories,” Jensen said. “Others were unemployed at the time of their arrests, come from poor socio-economic backgrounds, and have substance abuse or mental health issues.”

However, several characteristics set them apart from other far-right extremists. For one, the QAnon adherents in the study tended to be an older group, averaging 42 in age. There were also far more women in their ranks; 16 of the 66 QAnon adherents facing charges are women. Among the 35 arrested before the Capitol riot, 63% had documented mental illness while 44% radicalized after experiencing trauma. Three of those people took part in the riot and were arrested again.

"There are a number of [women] whose children have been victims of physical or sexual abuse by family members [or] their children had been taken away from them," Jensen said. "That really sparked their kind of radicalization process into the movement, that they were drawn to the narrative that QAnon is fighting this ring of criminals that are engaging in child sex trafficking."

There were notable differences between the QAnon followers who took part in the riot and those who were arrested earlier. The most glaring was that those who took part in the riot had lower rates of substance abuse, mental illness, and unemployment. The non-QAnon rioters also had a generally low rate of unemployment, suggesting that the pro-Trump mob was a relatively well-off group with the means to take time off and travel to Washington.

Twelve of the 66 had known ties to other extremist groups, suggesting cross-pollination across extremist lines.

Seven belonged to the so-called "sovereign citizens" anti-government movement, two each were members of the Oath Keepers and the Proud Boys, and one was affiliated with the Wolverine Watchmen militia. But only two of the 12 — Oath Keepers Joshua Macias and Antonio Lamotta — participated in the Capitol riot.

In most cases, Jensen said, the QAnon followers with “dual affiliations” had already been immersed in other movements before embracing the conspiracy theory.

Colin Clarke, director of policy and research at the Soufan Group, said far-right groups see QAnon conspiracy theorists as "useful fools."

"We've seen on the Telegram channels online discussions from other aspects of the far-right, openly talking about whether or not and how to recruit these people now that these conspiracies have proven bankrupt," Clarke said.

What connects the two movements, Clarke said, is "a heavy dose of anti-Semitism" that permeates the conspiracy theory.

https://www.voanews.com/usa/capitol-riot-exposed-qanons-violent-potential

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START releases new analysis of QAnon offenders in the United States

Erin Copland - February 24, 2021

A new research brief from START's Radicalization and Disengagement (RaD) team examines the characteristics of QAnon offenders in the United States. The new research brief explores both the characteristics of QAnon offenders, and the offenses they commit.

As of February 24, 2021, 56 QAnon followers have committed ideologically-motivated crimes in the United States, according to a new research brief. This includes two offenders who were inspired by the PizzaGate conspiracy, a precursor to QAnon, who committed crimes in 2016, and 27 individuals who participated in the Capitol insurrection on January 6, 2021. The offenders come from 27 states, including 7 from California, 4 from Arizona, 3 from New Jersey, 3 from New York, 3 from Pennsylvania, and 3 from Virginia. Using auxiliary data from the Profiles of Individual Radicalization in the United States (PIRUS) project, these infographics provide information on the characteristics of U.S. QAnon offenders and their crimes.

The brief, "QAnon Offenders in the United States" is available on the START website. Follow our Radicalization and Disengagement (RaD) team on Twitter for more: @RaD_UMD.

https://www.start.umd.edu/news/start-releases-new-analysis-qanon-offenders-united-states

—

QAnon Offenders in the United States

Abstract:

As of March 23, 2021, 66 QAnon followers have committed ideologically-motivated crimes in the United States. This includes two offenders who were inspired by the PizzaGate conspiracy, a precursor to QAnon, who committed crimes in 2016, and 34 individuals who participated in the Capitol insurrection on January 6, 2021. The offenders come from 30 states, including 9 from California, 4 from Arizona, and 4 from New Jersey. Using auxiliary data from the Profiles of Individual Radicalization in the United States (PIRUS) project, these infographics provide information on the characteristics of U.S. QAnon offenders and their crimes.

Full Citation:

Jensen, Michael and Sheehan Kane. 2021. "QAnon Offenders in the United States," College Park, MD. March.

START Author(s):

Michael Jensen, Sheehan Kane

Publication URL:

https://www.start.umd.edu/sites/default/files/publications/local_attachments/START%20QAnon%20Research%20Brief_3_23.pdf

https://www.start.umd.edu/publication/qanon-offenders-united-states

Dutton’s appointment in Canberra hints at more hawkish stance on China

Yu Lei - Mar 31, 2021

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been forced to reshuffle his cabinet after weeks of shocking allegations of mistreatment of women in federal politics. "Hawkish" Australian politician Peter Dutton - former home affairs minister - has now become the new defense minister.

Dutton has sharply criticized China for launching so-called cyber attacks against Australia, and smeared the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative. He is also an extreme populist with a strong tendency of racism. These characteristics have helped Dutton win the favor of Australia's populist and racist political forces and the US' ultra-right political forces. It's fair to say Dutton becoming defense minister is due to the support of ultra-right political forces inside and outside Australia.

It is expected that Dutton may strengthen military cooperation with the US, including purchasing military equipment from the US such as fighters, submarines and missiles. On the Indo-Pacific Strategy and the South China Sea issue, Dutton may further follow the US' suit and face China with a tougher attitude.

Australia has easily made money by exporting minerals to China. It does not care much about spending money on purchasing military equipment from the US because this can please the US, win the support of US government and military. Only in this way can the Morrison government consolidate its position and cabinet.

In addition to the attitude toward China, Dutton's attitude toward New Zealand is also very tough. For example, he said earlier in March that Australia was "taking the trash out" by deporting criminals to New Zealand, which triggered the latter's political backlash. Dutton becoming defense minister will further widen the gap between Australia and New Zealand. However, Dutton is an extreme populist favored by Washington.

It is expected that Australia's neighbors will not welcome Dutton's coming into power as defense minister. Australia's relations with New Zealand, Indonesia and South Pacific island countries may all be impacted. But Canberra may believe that Washington's support is all it needs.

Former Australian politician Stephen Conroy said on Monday that Australia "is clearly" looking underprepared for "any tension" in and around the South China Sea, according to Sky News. Dutton "needs to get on top of a number of issues," he said.

Australia's attitude toward the South China Sea and many other issues is in line with that of the US. With Dutton being the defense minister, Australia will take further actions to cooperate with the US to stir up South China Sea issues. It is very likely that Australia will further meddle in the South China Sea issue together with the US, but it may not dare to enter China's 12-nautical mile territorial sea. Canberra does not yet have such courage and ability.

Australia has always been tough on Asian countries, which also shows its racism. Considering the history of the US-Australia alliance and the political, economic and regional interests that Canberra has gained from it, Australia's firm domestic support of the alliance will not change in the short run. Australia's national strength cannot be compared with that of the US, but it is learning the US hawks' attitude toward China and their diplomatic policies. Australia's current national conditions do not support the country to be aggressive in all aspects. However, it seems Canberra does not believe it will pay a price by confronting Beijing.

China-US disputes will be long-term, so are China-Australia disputes. China should guide its people to understand our "tug-of-war" with the US-led Western countries will exist in the long run. We should have patience, strategy and determination.

The author is chief research fellow at the research center for Pacific island countries of Liaocheng University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202103/1219951.shtml

WHO Covid-19 report: New Zealand shuts its eyes to appease China

WILL GLASGOW and BEN PACKHAM - APRIL 1, 2021

New Zealand has refused to stand with Australia and its other Five Eyes partners to speak out against a much-criticised World Health Organisation investigation into the origins of COVID in China, as it tries to escape Beijing’s wrath.

The shortcomings of the investigation, which has been highly sensitive in China, were imm­ediately pointed out in joint statements released by the four other Five Eyes nations — the US, Britain, Canada and Australia — as well as Japan, South Korea and eight other countries, and in a separate statement by the EU.

Even WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus himself, who has been criticised for being too conciliatory to Beijing during the pandemic, acknowledged data had been with­held from the investigation team.

“In my discussions with the team they expressed the difficulties they encountered in accessing raw data,” Mr Tedros said at a press conference, which was seemingly censored on the Chinese internet on Wednesday.

“I expect future collaborative studies to include more timely and comprehensive data sharing,” the WHO chief said.

But in Wellington, the Ardern government said it needed more time before it would comment on the report, even though it has been circulating among WHO members for days.

“Our technical experts are currently analysing the report,” a spokeswoman for New Zealand Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta told The Australian.

“As this is a scientific report, we want to make sure we understand the science before making any comment,” she said.

While Australia’s relationship with China has imploded during the pandemic, New Zealand has become Beijing’s favourite member of the Five Eyes group.

Wellington was rewarded in January with an upgrade in its free trade agreement with China. That was signed as Beijing continued a trade retaliation campaign on more than $20bn worth of Australian exports aimed at punishing the Morrison government for calling for an independent inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus without forewarning Xi Jinping’s administration.

Tony Browne, a former New Zealand ambassador to China, said the Ardern government’s ­absence from the joint statement was not unexpected.

Noting that he did not want to sound critical of Australia’s approach, the retired diplomat said the Morrison government’s call for an inquiry was “framed in terms that were seen as provocative and even hostile in Beijing”.

“The way that the demand was outlined was seen by China as going beyond health into the political,” he told The Australian.

“Calling China into account for the nature of its political management of the issue might sound like a good thing to do, but you know for certain it’s not going to go anywhere in terms of any sort of co-operative involvement from China,” he said.

The WHO team in their report said they were unable to conclude where or how the virus began spreading, although they believe it most likely jumped from a bat or other animal host to a human.

‘Wuhan lab theory needs further study’

A statement signed by the US, Australia and 12 other countries said it was critical the WHO team be given “full access” so they could accurately study the origins of the coronavirus.

The EU statement said the report was a “helpful first step”, while regretting the late start of the study and the limited availability of early samples and related data.

A theory pushed by the Trump administration that the coronavirus emerged from a laboratory in Wuhan was described as the least likely hypothesis, but Tedros acknowledged the WHO team said that theory required further study.

“Further data and studies will be needed to reach more robust conclusions,” he said.

China’s foreign ministry said Beijing had provided “full co-operation” to the WHO team and then repeated a conspiracy theory about the coronavirus leaking from a military lab in America.

“There is still a big question mark over the lab at Fort Detrick,” the foreign ministry spokeswoman said.

Meanwhile, China’s state-controlled Global Times reported that the virus may have arrived in Wuhan on frozen food brought by foreign participants at the October 2019 Military World Games, a theory with no supporting evidence in the report.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/who-covid19-report-new-zealand-shuts-its-eyes-to-appease-china/news-story/d13e82a36ae8d88fea024beca3bb35b8

Ben Roberts-Smith: Afghan civilians to testify via video link in former soldier's defamation case

Fairfax Media’s case bolstered after court agrees witnesses would have little hope of travelling to Australia to give evidence

Christopher Knaus - 1 Apr 2021

Afghan civilian witnesses will be allowed to give evidence via remote link in the Ben Roberts-Smith war crimes defamation proceedings against the Age and Sydney Morning Herald, a judge has ruled.

The ruling is a win for the old Fairfax newspapers, allowing them to rely on alleged eye-witnesses as they fight allegations they defamed Roberts-Smith, a Victoria Cross winner and special forces veteran, by suggesting he committed war crimes.

The newspapers published a series of reports about Roberts-Smith’s actions between 2009 and 2012, including an allegation he kicked an Afghan civilian named Ali Jan off a cliff while he was bound. Jan was later shot.

Roberts-Smith has vehemently denied the allegations and is suing in the federal court.

The newspapers have been attempting to bolster their defence by introducing new evidence about Roberts-Smith’s alleged actions during deployment.

That has included evidence from five witnesses, including four Afghan civilians, who are unable to travel to Australia to appear in the federal court. The civilians include relatives of Ali Jan and witnesses to the alleged crime, the court heard.

One of the witnesses, known as person 62, was captured by Australian forces alongside Ali Jan. Person 62 says he was watching through a doorway when he saw a “big soldier” kick Ali Jan down a hill.

“Person 62 then moved from the door way to the outside,” the court said. “He then saw Ali Jan being taken from the dry creek bed below the slope/hill to the cornfield, ‘which was approximately 30 metres away’ by two soldiers.”

“Person 62 states that Ali Jan was then shot multiple times. After the soldiers had left in the helicopters, Person 62 saw Ali Jan’s body in the cornfields. He saw that he had been shot in the face, body and his arm.”

The court heard the witnesses had low prospects of travelling to Australia to give evidence, including because they would be unlikely to obtain visas.

Roberts-Smith’s lawyers opposed them giving evidence via video link from Afghanistan, saying it was “simply unworkable”. The witnesses would need to be shown photographs, maps and other representations of the landscape, structures and the persons involved, they argued. The secrecy restrictions governing the trial forbid the sharing of such sensitive documents via video-link, they said.

The evidence was also at odds with the testimony of other witnesses, his lawyers argued, meaning it needed to be led with precision on distance, proximity and location. That was said to be not possible via video-link and would be further complicated by the use of interpreters.

But in a decision on Thursday, Justice Anthony Besanko ruled it was permissible for the witnesses to give evidence from Afghanistan.

He said the evidence of the witnesses, if accepted as identifying Roberts-Smith, was “evidence of very serious misconduct” and was an “important aspect of the respondents’ case”.

Besanko said there was some risk of disadvantage to Roberts-Smith by the use of the video link. But he said two principles favoured allowing the witnesses to give evidence remotely.

“First, the application is based on the assumption that if the Afghan witnesses are not permitted to give evidence by [audio-visual link], then they will not give evidence in the proceedings,” he said. “The respondents have said that they will continue their efforts to bring the Afghan witnesses to Australia for the trial, but the assumption underlying the application is that that will not be possible and, absent an order that permits them to give evidence by AVL, they will not give evidence at the trial.”

“Secondly, I am satisfied that the respondents have made all reasonable efforts to bring the Afghan witnesses to Australia. Those efforts are likely to be unsuccessful.”

Nick McKenzie, the award-winning investigative reporter who authored the stories, described the decision as landmark and said it would be the first time Afghans would testify in an Australian case about an alleged war crime.

“The world will be watching,” he tweeted.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/01/ben-roberts-smith-afghan-civilians-to-testify-via-video-link-in-former-soldiers-defamation-case

https://twitter.com/Ageinvestigates/status/1377469432918761472

Australian adviser to overthrown leader charged under Myanmar secrets act

Chris Barrett - April 2, 2021

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Singapore: Australian economist Sean Turnell has been charged along with Myanmar’s ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi with breaching the country’s official secrets act and faces a prison term if found guilty.

Khin Maung Zaw, the senior lawyer representing Suu Kyi, told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age on Thursday night that Turnell, an adviser to Suu Kyi, was charged on March 25 in East Yangon District Court. Suu Kyi and three of the ministers from her government were also charged under the colonial-era act, he said.

The lawyer said Turnell and Suu Kyi were charged under section 3.1C of the Burma Official Secrets Act. It refers to the collecting, publishing or distributing against the interests of the state of “any secret official code or password, or any sketch, plan, model, article or note or other document or information which is calculated to be or might be or is intended to be, directly or indirectly, useful to an enemy”.

It is punishable with a prison term of up to three years or, in the case of naval, military or air force affairs of the state, up to 14 years.

Khin Maung Zaw said “all five of them were charged under the same section” and that he would be defending Turnell and the three ministers as well as Suu Kyi, who was already facing a string of other charges.

Turnell, who was devising reform of Myanmar’s banking processes, was accused on state television last month of trying to flee the country with secret government financial information, but the lawyer said he had not been given the details of the allegations being made by prosecutors against the Sydney-based academic.

“We haven’t got that information because we haven’t officially been appointed as his lawyers yet and we cannot look at the papers of that case,” he said.

“Three senior lawyers and two junior lawyers from Yangon will represent those five.”

The charging of Turnell, which was first reported by Reuters on Thursday night, is an alarming development for his family and friends who have said the former Reserve Bank of Australia senior analyst had not been trying to leave the country in the days after the February 1 coup and had spent years dedicating himself to improving the financial system in Myanmar.

It is also a further blow to the efforts of Australian officials in Yangon, who have been attempting to secure Turnell’s release since he was detained five days after the military seized power again.

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More than 530 people have been killed in the crackdown against the pro-democracy movement in the two months since then, among them many children, as the south-east Asian nation teeters on the brink of total collapse and civil war.

Turnell was allowed to speak over the phone to his wife, Sydney economics lecturer Ha Vu, about a month ago and the junta’s spokesman said at a press conference last week the military would permit more such communication.

It has not been disclosed, however, exactly where he has been held for the past two months.

A spokesperson for Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade on Friday called on the military regime to “allow Professor Turnell to return to his family in Australia”.

“Professor Turnell has been detained with limited consular access for almost two months. The Australian government continues to consider this to be arbitrary detention,” the spokesperson said.

“Australia continues to seek his immediate release and official information about the reasons for his detention both in Myanmar and through the embassy in Australia.”

Suu Kyi had previously been hit with several less serious charges including illegally importing six walkie-talkies and violating coronavirus restrictions during last year’s election, which her National League of Democracy won in a landslide.

Her government was to begin another term on February 1 but she was arrested that morning, along with many other NLD politicians, as the country was abruptly returned to military control following a decade-long flirtation with democracy.

Two other Australians, Matthew O’Kane and Christa Avery, who have lived in Myanmar for 10 years and run a business consultancy there, were prevented from leaving the country on a relief flight nearly a fortnight ago and placed under house arrest.

On Friday (AEDT), a special meeting of the UN Security Council issued a statement strongly condemned the use of violence against peaceful protesters in Myanmar and the deaths of hundreds of civilians, but dropped the threat of possible future action against the military.

The British-drafted press statement approved by all 15 council members after intense negotiations expressed “deep concern at the rapidly deteriorating situation”. The original draft was much stronger and would have expressed the Security Council’s “readiness to consider further steps”. It would also have “deplored” the use of violence against peaceful protesters.

But at the insistence of China, Myanmar’s neighbour and friend, the reference to “further steps” was eliminated and the stronger language, including the words “killing” and “deplore”, was softened.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/myanmar-s-deposed-leader-aung-san-suu-kyi-australian-adviser-charged-20210401-p57g2c.html