A lot of focus on the Senate, which is good, but we really need to focus on the house as much if not more. Based on what I am seeing in the polls which are not a great predictor so much as psyop, R floor is 175 with an advantage in 16 more races. We need to win 218 to retain the house which means 43/72 races in play. Of these races:
42 R held Trump Won in play
AR2,CA50,FL16,GA6,IA1,IA3,IL12,IL13,IL14,KS2,KY6,ME2,MI6,MI7,MI8,MI11,MN2,MT,NC9,NC13,NE2,NJ2,NJ3,NJ11,NM2,NY1,NY11,NY19,NY22,NY27,OH1,OH12,PA17,PA10,UT4,VA2,VA5,VA7,WA3,WA5,WI1,WV3
22 R held districts Trump Lost in play
AZ2,CA10,CA21,CA25,CA39,CA45,CA48,CA49,CO6,FL7,FL26,IL6,KS3,MN3,NJ7,PA1,PA7,
TX7,TX23,TX32,VA10,WA8
7 D Held Trump Won in play
AZ1,MN1,MN7,MN8,NH1,NJ5,NV3
3 D Held Clinton Won in play
CA7,FL7,NV4
42 Seats R held Trump won that are in play. 14 lean R, 1 lean D 27 toss up
22 R held Clinton won districts 2 Lean R 3 Lean D 17 Toss up
7 D held Trump Won 5 Lean D 2 Toss Up
3 D held Clinton won 3 Lean D
Sauce
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html
nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/26/us/elections/house-races-midterms.html
Analysis: I know that we have certain candidates that we dislike, but this is a raw numbers game and it is for Q and Potus, so suck it up. The best way to get a favorable map is to push the generic ballot. 2016 was a generic ballot neutral election, so applying a +/- number to each race using a generic ballot provides a rough number for how far the blue wave will go (we are going to lose some house seats). Also, when they say there is an advantage and you have an incumbent in a district that the presidential candidate of the same party won it is as close to a slam dunk as possible. I expect a minimum of 15 out of 16 where R has advantage. If not, that will likely be a problem. This gets us to 190. We need 28 more to retain the house. There are 46 tossups meaning a necessary win rate of just over 60%. 44 of those seats are held by R currently. The two seats held by D are open seats making them true tossups. Of the 44 R tossups, 27 are incumbents from what I was seeing (computer issues at time so might be more). This is an advantage from the stand point of winning. If the win rate for them is arround 65% than that is 17 or 18 seats. From there it would be 10 or 11 out of 19 to win. This reflects an uphill battle.
There are a few strategic approaches that will help us improve odds. The first thing that is easier for what we do is to drag the DNC through the mud. We have the dirt and more comming every day. There is a lot there and we can move public opinion to move the needle on the generic ballot through social media. The next thing to do is attatch battleground Ds to the DNC establishment. Inuendo of impropriety is all that we need to flip some seats to likely R. The easiest seats to do this with would be ones with R incumbents in districts Trump won. CA50,IA1,IA3,IL12,KY6,ME2,MI8,MN2,MT,NY19,NY22,OH1,UT4,VA7,WA5 fit that bill. These should be lean R and if we push them into that column now, that reduces the number of races that a Trump bump is neaded in and frees up money too. If these 14 races are included with the 16 that lean R and we win 90% of those then it would put us at 202, win 16 out of the remaining 32 toss ups to win. This would be a board that would favor R.