Major Deep Dig into Senate Open Seat Elections

I am not very trusting of sites like "real clear politics" anymore. Not since the 2016 election have pollsters gotten it so wrong! You'd think they would have learned their lesson, but nope… they are still trying to be the tail wagging the dog by basically saying "these elections are too close to call" when the GOP is clearly leading. They are trying to INFLUENCE public opinion rather than simply reporting on it. So I decided to really do a deep dig into their sources to find out WHY they have ZERO races "leaning GOP", but have 9 of them as being "Toss ups".

I invite you to come along with me on this journey! Start by going here:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html

The first indication that there is fuckery afoot is that there are a LOT of "Likely Dem" and "Leans Dem", but only ONE "Likely GOP' and ZERO "Leans GOP". There's a lot in the middle, though… including states like Texas, Tennessee, and Montana. SOMETHING is not right here!

To understand how they arrive at these conclusions you have to understand how RCP does their predictive modeling. They take polls and kinda find an "Average" of the +GOP vs +DEM that come out of them. If they are within +/- 3 or so, they say it's "too close to call". However, it's possible to fuck with those averages by including polls from MONTHS ago that favor the +DEM side, which is something I suspect I will find in my investigation.

I begin with the Toss Ups, and just go down the row. Let's investigate!

>>2996038

Arizona

Here we have 3 polls. The first thing that jumps out at me is that the ONLY poll showing a +DEM advantage, is one from 3 fucking months ago. The trend is DEFINITIVELY towards the GOP side!

>ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights 9/5 - 9/6 597 LV 4.0 46 49 McSally +3

>Gravis 9/5 - 9/7 882 LV 5.3 48 49 McSally +1

>Emerson 6/21 - 6/22 650 RV 4.0 40 32 Sinema +8

The next thing to notice is that the +DEM poll has the Republican with only 32% support, and the Democrat with only 40% support. That's an indicator of an EARLY poll being conducted that actually shows a lot of indecision… probably before primaries were concluded? Let's look at the actual PDF of that poll, shall we?

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-az-6.24.pdf

Huh, this is Sinema vs THREE DIFFERENT GOP candidates! So this was done BEFORE the GOP primary was decided! Huh… How can you possibly use this to determine anything? They yank out 40% support for Sinema, and 32% for McSally… there's a 43/26 split on Ward, and a 54/30 split on Arpaio!

JEEVES, FUCKERY IS AFOOT!

To better understand what the general feeling of Arizona citizens is towards DEM or GOP, look at the REST of the poll showing the intentions of voting for GOVERNOR.

> In the Governor’s race, Republican Governor Doug Ducey leads his GOP opponent Ken Bennett 44% to 22%, with 35% undecided.

Looking at the other polls, what do we notice? TWO of them happened in the last week and show a clear favorite in the GOP Nominee, now that there aren't 3 of them to choose from!

I'm going to call it right now. Arizona is going to the GOP…

1) The trends go that way.

2) This poll is being held by RCP to keep this state in the "toss up" collumn.

3) The Governor, in spite if low approval ratings, is still beating the DEM in polling.

4) General bias against GOP in polling as shown by 2016 results.

>>2996038

Florida

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/fl/florida_senate_scott_vs_nelson-6246.html

Here we see the very same thing going on we saw in Arizona! We have 7 different polls done, but they DOGGEDLY hold on to the one from 6/17 that shows Nelson at +4, and it is the ONLY one with Nelson in the lead. This gives us a +1.7 RCP average, keeping it in the "Toss Up" category.

Let's examine that one, shall we?

http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/Toss%20Up%20Questions_NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll_Florida%20Annotated%20Questionnaire_June%202018.pdf

In this poll, we see that they polled 344 registered Democrats, but only 326 registered Republicans. This was a HUGE tactic used in 2016: Oversampling Democrats. Still, there are only 670 of the 947 polled who are registered as Democrat or Republican. Are there REALLY 277 registered Independant people in this poll? That's quite a lot!

Either way, oversampling and a non-representative sample of registered voters points to there being fuckery afoot here as well.

Looking at the other polling, we show a CLEAR favorite in Rick Scott.

>SurveyUSA 9/7 - 9/9 634 LV 5.3 46 44 Scott +2

>Quinnipiac 8/30 - 9/3 785 LV 4.3 49 49 Tie

>Gravis 8/29 - 8/30 1225 LV 2.8 47 47 Tie

>Florida Atlantic University 8/16 - 8/20 800 RV 3.4 45 39 Scott +6

>Mason-Dixon 7/24 - 7/25 625 LV 4.0 47 44 Scott +3

>CBS News/YouGov 6/19 - 6/22 839 LV – 46 41 Scott +5

>NBC News/Marist 6/17 - 6/21 947 RV 3.9 45 49 Nelson +4

+2, Tie, Tie, +6, +3, and +5…

Let's look at the two "Tie" ones.

First, the Gravis one:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Florida_(August_30_2018).pdf

This poll seems pretty much on the "good" side of polling… 12% of those polled are hispanic or have a member of their immediate family as being Latino, Hispanic, or Spanish Speaking background… 69% of those polled are white… There is no obvious over-sampling of Democrats… but again 33% are independent, which is INCREDIBLE to me that there are so many who claim that.

77% are VERY likely to vote, with only 9% being "Somewhat Likely"…

A big key in this one is to look at some of the other ideologically driven questions… 49% say Kavanaugh is qualified for the USSC. 43% support Brennan's security clearance being revoked (42% oppose)… 39% are more likely to vote for a candidate that supports Kavanaugh's appointment to the USSC (35% would be less likely), so that means Nelson is being given a clear indication: If you want to win this election, you had BETTER vote for Kavanaugh!

Looking at Question 23, the hatered for the MSM is obvious. 49% say they Disapprove of the MSM, with only 41% saying they approve… but look at that 36% that STRONGLY disapprove!

And 51% approve of the border wall!

Moving on to the OTHER "Tie" poll…

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2566

First question I always ask myself? What is the breakdown of those polled… NOT THE PERCENTAGES, BUT THE RAW NUMBERS! They do not include that in this "press release" version, so you have to go to the "sample and methodology detail" link…

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/fl/fl09052018_demos_fjya13.pdf/

785 total people polled. 34% GOP, 31% Dem… so good job not oversampling DEMs, Quinnipiac!

Anyway, I can find nothing really wrong with either of these "tie" polls to show any sort of bias…

The bottom line is this… the +4 Nelson poll from 6/17 is bullshit. The RCP average of +1.7 for Scott is thus bullshit.

Without that +4 to Nelson, the RCP average shifts to +2.7 Scott. Still within the MOE of most polling, but definitely a huge swing towards calling this state for the GOP.

I'm going to call it for Scott now.

NEXT!

>>2996038

Indiana

Right away we see touble. The RCP average is +5.7 for the DEMs. Why this is in the "Toss Up" category is a mystery to me. This should PROBABLY be "Leaning DEM" to be honest. We have the Dem, Joe Donnelly, vs the Republican Mike Braun. There are only 3 polls to look at here, and two are pretty out of date…

>NBC News/Marist 8/26 - 8/29 576 LV 5.0 49 43 Donnelly +6

>Trafalgar Group (R) 7/31 - 8/7 1420 LV 2.6 51 39 Donnelly +12

>Gravis 5/10 - 5/15 400 LV 4.9 46 47 Braun +1

Honestly the only one that should be considered at this point is the most recent one… but what's with that +12 one from a month ago?!?

Let's investigate!

https://www.trafalgarstrategy.com/news/in-senate-poll-aug-18/

OH HO! What's this?!?! This is nothing more than a survey report with no methodology shown, and nothing more than baseline results showing support before and after the Kavanaugh Hearing votes!

Donnelly is up 50.7% to 38.6% as a baseline… now that we know THAT, who would you vote for if Donnelly votes FOR Kavanaugh? Oh, 39.4% to 38.5%… but if he votes AGAINST Kavanaugh, 45.3% to 38.0%…

This is not a legitimate poll… and if you click "See Full Report", you have to request access to a google doc? WTF is this bullshit?!?

This poll is 100% not to be trusted!

So let's look at that NBC News one, shall we?

The link given by RCP is to a news report… you have to click another link within that report to get to the nitty-gritty poll numbers… I don't trust NBC to tell me what I need to know… just what they WANT me to know, so I'm going to look into the raw data!

http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/NBCNews_MaristPollIndianaAnnotatedQuestionnaire_September2018_1808311755.pdf

955 Adults polled… they break it down by simply "Adults", then "Registered Voters" and then "Likely Voters". That's the one we care about. Notice how we have to dive deep into fine print in a huge wall-of-text paragraph to get the REGISTERED voter data, and the LIKELY voter data… only 576 of these 955 are LIKELY voters. That's a HUGE difference, but RCP is being honest here and that's what they reported on the site… so kudos to them. (Credit where it's due, right?)

A few things to note… you should usually combine "stronly approve" with "approve" (or "Slightly approve") to get overall approval, and do the same with "strongly" or "slightly" disapprove. On the question of approval of Trump as president? We have TOTAL approval of 48%, and total disapproval of 45%… that's a good sign.

Looking at the Generic Ballot for the HOUSE question, the Likely Voters favor the GOP candidate 48% to 44%… which is at odds with the Senate numbers… but a LOT, actually. But that's likely caused by the Libertarian candidate taking 8% of the overall vote… generating a split of 44/41/8…

With that nugget of information, I think we can call Indiana going to the Democrats… but ONLY because of the Libertarian candidate… if the Dems get 45% of the vote for the house, and 44% for the Senate… it stands to reason the libertarian candidate is only stripping 1% from the Dem there, and the other 7% of her support is coming from the GOP. The GOP goes from 48% in the house, to 41% in the Senate race… which kinda explains it all.

I'm a Libertarian myself… and I personally HATE how they are even a political party… they just need to become a wing of the GOP and push the GOP to more libertarian ideals… and stop tanking elections for the GOP!

Conclusion: Indiana stays DEM.

>>2996038

MONTANA

The very first thing to notice here is that there has not been a poll done in Montana for 2 fucking months… which means no polling since Trump's rally there.

The latest poll was a HUGE one with over 2000 people surveyed. 42% are GOP and only 28% are DEM…. that's a very large oversampling of GOP… I just can't understand why this is even a close race…

Keeping it as a Toss Up, mainly because we don't have any current data. Will monitor.

>>2996038

MISSOURI

Here we see that McCaskill has no recent polls where she is leading… two ties, and a +2 GOP.

At least these polls are actually RECENT… two happening in the last month.

Looking at the most recent poll, which came out as a tie:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/poll-high-profile-missouri-senate-race-locked-dead-heat-n906001?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

Here we have another instance of 3rd Party Fuckery. The Libertarian and Green candidates are stripping 8% support from both candidates. 3% Green stripped from the Dem, 5% Libertarian stripped from the GOP. You can see it in the difference between the HOUSE race poll results, and the Senate poll results. In the house, the GOP has a 43 to 42 advantage. In the Seante, it drops to 40/44.

The key thing to look at here is the favorability of McCaskill… 49% unfavortable, and 41% favorable.

All that said… I think by the time election day comes around, it's likely that we pull out a GOP win.

>>2996038

NEVADA

Here we have a very very old poll from April showing a +1 for the GOP. Looking at the most recent one from this very week, we have a +1 DEM advantage. Let's examine that one!

Out of 500 likely voters, we have a split of 206 GOP vs 208 DEM. Once again we have some 3rd party fuckery, with a libertarian, an independent, an "Independent American"… but it's only 28 of the total, or about 5% in all.

Anyway, nothing stands out in this poll that shows anything going one way or the other. There's a general hatered of Trump here, but that doesn't seem to be reflected in the polling for voting for a party.

Conclusion: Toss up

>>2996038

NORTH DAKOTA

Gravis poll from FUCKING FEBRUARY keeps this RCP average at only a +0.5 for the GOP. The only poll since was in June, and shows Cramer at +4 over Heitkamp.

This one is obviously going to go to the GOP… I'm going to call it now as a GOP victory with a final result being 54% to 46% for the GOP…. yes, a +8 spread!

>>2996038

TENNESSEE

The RCP average shows a +1.3 to the DEM side. We have 3 relatively recent polls, so no fuckery there.

>NBC News/Marist 8/25 - 8/28 538 LV 5.1 48 46 Bredesen +2

>Gravis 8/9 - 8/11 620 LV 3.9 44 48 Blackburn +4

>Emerson 7/11 - 7/14 657 RV 4.1 43 37 Bredesen +6

Notice how the Gravis poll has a MOE of 3.9%, which is covered by the +4 to Blackburn… but the NBC poll has a MOE of 5.1% which is NOT covered by the +2 for Bredesen. If you take half the MOE, and correct towards the center, that means Blackburn is at about a +2 for the Gravis, and at a +1 for the NBC poll. This is a rather tenuous method, for sure, but it points towards there being a slight advantage to the GOP for this state.

Going deeper into the NBC/Marist poll… Here we get some confirmation that the GOP have an advantage. For CONGRESS, there is 50% support for the GOP, compared to 42% for DEMs.

I'm going to call this for Tennessee, but it's going to be only a 2-3% win.

>>2996038

TENNESSEE

The RCP average shows a +1.3 to the DEM side. We have 3 relatively recent polls, so no fuckery there.

>NBC News/Marist 8/25 - 8/28 538 LV 5.1 48 46 Bredesen +2

>Gravis 8/9 - 8/11 620 LV 3.9 44 48 Blackburn +4

>Emerson 7/11 - 7/14 657 RV 4.1 43 37 Bredesen +6

Notice how the Gravis poll has a MOE of 3.9%, which is covered by the +4 to Blackburn… but the NBC poll has a MOE of 5.1% which is NOT covered by the +2 for Bredesen. If you take half the MOE, and correct towards the center, that means Blackburn is at about a +2 for the Gravis, and at a +1 for the NBC poll. This is a rather tenuous method, for sure, but it points towards there being a slight advantage to the GOP for this state.

Going deeper into the NBC/Marist poll… Here we get some confirmation that the GOP have an advantage. For CONGRESS, there is 50% support for the GOP, compared to 42% for DEMs.

I'm going to call this for Tennessee, but it's going to be only a 2-3% win.

>>2996038

TEXAS

What I love about this one is that it's being called a TOSS UP, when not a single poll shows any advantage to "Beto" the fake hispanic… Cruz is at a +3.2 on the RCP average.

>Emerson 8/22 - 8/25 550 RV 4.4 39 38 Cruz +1

>NBC News/Marist 8/12 - 8/16 759 RV 3.8 49 45 Cruz +4

>Quinnipiac 7/26 - 7/31 1138 RV 3.5 49 43 Cruz +6

>Texas Lyceum* 7/9 - 7/26 441 LV 4.7 41 39 Cruz +2

I am not worried about Texas. Cruz wins by 5% to 7%

>>2996038

The bottom line and conclusions.

GOP WINS

Arizona

Florida

North Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

There are 47 safe seats for the GOP. Add the "Likely GOP" seat for Mississippi 2, and you have a base of 48 total seats.

These 5 wins of the supposed "Toss Ups" means the GOP has 53 seats almost guaranteed.

DEM WINS

Indiana

They already have Indiana, so they just retain this seat… the GOP will fail to flip it.

STILL TOSS UP

Missouri

Montana

Nevada

Of those, Montana doesn't have enough information yet to call it either way. Missouri and Nevada have 3rd party fuckery going on… and are STILL toss-ups.

I suspect that the 3rd party influence will diminish as we get closer to the election, if it's known that a 3rd party vote is going to lead to Dems winning.

Assuming we can pull out Montana and Missouri… that gives the GOP 55 seats.

>>2996143

New Fox News Poll out today shows Cramer +4

>>2996134

New Fox News poll out today shows McCaskill +3

>>2996093

New Fox News poll out today shows Braun +2… so that's quite a flip from the +12 and +6, and shows a trend towards the GOP. I'm going to put Indiana back at a TossUp until we see more data. If we get another +GOP poll we can conclude it'll go GOP in November.

>>2996049

TWO new Arizona polls out today… the one from ABC 15 shown in the original post above had McSally at +3… shortly after posting this, Fox News came out with a new poll showing Sinema +3…

>>3043408

I just don't understand how Manchin has such a lead in WV. With all the coal jobs coming back, and Manchin voting AGAINST the tax bill… How the hell is WV hillbilly country BLUE? WTF is wrong with these people?

RCP has WV as "Leans Dem"… Manchin at +8.4 in the RCP average.

According to the latest poll that shows Manchin up by 8 points…

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4802025/WV-Poll-Presentation-8-30-Media-1.pdf

• 60% of WV likely voters approve of Trump… 19% higher than the national average.

• Joe Manchin’s Job Approval Ratings Have Decreased and His Disapprovals Are at a 5-Year High. (43% approve, 39% disapprove)

• 45% want a GOP run state legislature, 34% want a DEM one.

• Manchin still leads Morrisey 46% to 38%

Something's fishy in WV!

Here's the interesting thing… it seems 8% wanted Blankenship… and 4% of those would have voted for him rather than Morrisey.

W/O Blankenship: 46%/38% with 16% unsure.

With Blankenship: 45%/34%/8% with 13% unsure.

Here's what bothers me about this poll.

1) It's only 404 likely voters.

2) It doesn't ask a vital question: "If you had to vote for one or the other, which would you choose?"

3) The fact that Manchin can't get more than 46% support, when his disapproval ratings are so fucking high?

18% of 404 is 72 people.

Anyway, I really REALLY question the validity of this poll…

>>2996038

So looking at this polling trend… there have been new polls released on a fairly regular basis for the past week and a half, going all the way back to 9/4… at least one poll per day, with there being a maximum of a 3 day gap between releasing of polls between 8/31 and 9/4.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/senate/

Suddenly after a HUGE batch of polls released by Fox News and KSTP/Survey USA on 4/13, the polling has been quiet as hell… we are now into day 3 of quiet. I can't help but wonder if maybe there are some +GOP polls being held back, waiting for contradictory +DEM polls to counterbalance them? Like, imagine the pollsters thinking, "OMG this can't be good, this will give the GOP hope that things are swinging their way… better wait for some other polls to come in…"

Not saying anything truly nefarious is happening, but it's been kinda the pattern of the news organizations to slow walk good news for the GOP, but rush to press with any bad news;.

>>2996038

Okay, this is kinda crazy…

Since July 19th, the only polling that has been reported have been in the following states:

AZ, CA, CN, DE, FL, IN, ME, MI, MN, MO, NV, NJ, NM, ND, PA, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI

This leaves out:

AL, AR, CO, GA, HI, ID, IL, IA, KS, KY, LA, MD, MA, MS, MT, NE, NH, NY, NC, OH, OR, RI, SC, SD, VT, WA, and WY.

I find it very difficult to believe that 27 states, over half of them, have not had a poll done on the senate races in almost 2 months!

Just something to keep in mind, we are working with VERY old data right now!

>>3044397

Okay… I'm an idiot… I am a COMPLETE idiot… it's the senate… only 1/3rd of it is elected each cycle… Derp. LOL

Still, numerous states that HAVE races going on have had no polling… NE for example.

>>2996038

I am now going through every single senate race and seeing when the latest polls are, and keeping a spreadsheet on it. There's already 5 races I see who have absolutely NO polling data.

Hawaii isn't likely to ever elect another GOP member of the senate ever again… so no shock there.

There are TWO races in Mississippi, and neither has any polling done. One (MS2) is a special election with an open primary that is being decided ON ELECTION DAY it seems? And then it will advance to another special election once the GOP candidate is decided I guess. Such an odd one.

Maryland has no polling data, but it's not shocking if it goes DEM… half the DC swamp lives in this state.

Nebraska has no polling either, but that's almost certainly going to Deb Fischer… this is my state, and I don't really like her, and may even vote against her in protest… because she's turned into a DC swamp creature herself… depends, though.

Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington state also have no polling done on them yet… which I find extremely not shocking. All three are DEM strongholds anymore.

Finally there's Wyoming, which is solid red, and has no polling either.

Interesting Races the GOP may actually win!

Bob Menendez in New Jersey is only at a +6 in the polling, and that's from 8/20… so it may have gotten tighter since then. This is one of those states I could see flipping GOP… (After all, they elected Republican Chris Christie as governor, right?)

Will have to monitor.

Another interesting one is Ohio. The latest poll is from 6/21, so it's fairly old. It's also +13 in the favor of the DEMs. However, Trump carried this state… so it's one to watch for new polling data at the very least.

>>3048000

Nice trips!

Yeah, there's a lot of states like that. Montana, believe it or not… Billings is pretty blue, but the rest of the state red… it's odd how blue centers around urban areas, isn't it? Even in the whitest of whitebread states.

I'm in Nebraska, and District 2 (Omaha and the surrounding metro) almost went to Hillary… the rest of the state is deep red… but Omaha has like 55% of the damn state population!

Isn't it odd, though, how these states are NOT being polled? It's almost like they're afraid of what they'll find.

>>3058847

Fuck's sake… WRONG FUCKING THREAD you muppets! Goddamned Reddit retards…

>>3065148

WRONG FUCKING THREAD, YOU FUCKING MUPPET!

>>2996038

New polls…

New Mexico. Was +18 DEM (8/18), now +21 DEM (9/15)… this state is pretty much a lock for the DEMs

>>2996134

Missouri: Previously a Tie as of 9/11, still a tie as of 9/16. Good sign. Still a toss-up… but then 9/17 another came out showing +3 GOP. Good trend!

>>2996109

Montana: Previously +3 DEM (7/10), now +2 DEM (9/16). Still a Toss Up, but I anticipate come election day, the GOP will prevail.

>>2996223

Texas: Was a +1 GOP (8/25), now +4 (9/16). A good sign with trends going in the right direction.

>>3080564

Scratch that… Cruz +9 as of 9/18

Notable poll shift… Michigan's race was +22 for the Dems as of 9/7. It is now +15… that's quite a shift towards the center, and may be an indication of rising black support for Trump.

>>2996157

Notable shift. 9/11 showed a +3 GOP… now as of 9/17 it's +5 DEM… shifting this to a Toss Up.

Something is hinky with this poll, though.. .

>A total of 1,000 adults who live in Tennessee were interviewed by telephone by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Among the entire sample, 26% described themselves as Democrats, 33% described themselves as Republicans, and 42% described themselves as independents or members of another party.

Only 26% are democrats, yet the democrat has 50% of the vote? SOMETHING is not right here. 42% describing themselves as independent is WAY out of line with the norm…

>>3080573

RCP had MN1 at +15 for the dems… it's now +30… what the fuck? That's not even possible in my mind. How the fuck does that happen? NO OTHER STATE has that big of a swing… the next highest being +25… most being under +22…

MN2 is showing a shift from +9 DEM to +7 DEM… which is far more believable.

>>3081005

Keep in mind senate voting is state-wide… not just a specific region of the state. BOTH of these seats are being voted on by the very same set of constituents.

>>3087609

This is a senate races thread dude.

New ND poll shows Heitcamp is totally losing support… it went from "toss up" to "leans GOP"

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>>3290696 (KEK, "been here since the beginning" but posts in the wrong fucking thread? Suuuuure)

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>>3180437

FOR FUCK'S SAKE YOU FUCKING IDIOT NOOBS FROM REDDIT!!!

THIS IS NOT A BREAD FOR POSTING GENERAL SHIT! THIS IS SPECIFICALLY A THREAD ABOUT THE 2018 SENATE RACES, AND YOU'RE SHITTING IT UP WITH YOUR STUPID BULLSHIT OFF TOPIC POSTS!!!

LURK MORE, STOP POSTING UNTIL YOU KNOW HOW THIS BOARD WORKS, YOU FUCKING RETARDS!

BO/BV, please delete every single one of those above linked posts! NONE of them have anything to do with the midterms, or are anywhere NEAR the topic of this thread!

Notable Poll shifts

Tennessee

Polls shifted from +5DEM to +5GOP in 1 month between 9/11 and 10/4.

Calling it for the GOP at this point.

North Dakota

Was +4GOP on 9/11, now +12GOP, and shifted to "likely GOP" on RCP.

Arizona

On 9/17, was +7DEM, now +2DEM as of 10/4

California

This is rather notable… Feinstein was at +22, and is now only +11… in fucking California?

Delaware

On 9/27, a poll came out as +37 DEM, a very VERY large departure from the previous +8DEM figure from 7/29… very odd.

Rhode Island

We got our first RI poll of the year on 9/21, showing a +19DEM margin.

Not shocked.

Maryland

We got our first Maryland poll of the year on 9/19, showing a +39DEM margin.

Not shocked.

>>3362274

Current "wins" for the GOP:

Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Mississippi 1, Mississippi 2, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

GOP wins 13 of the current races.

4 are considered safe. (UT, WY, NE, MS1)

1 is considered "likely" (MS2)

1 is considered "leaning" (ND)

Those give us 48 total Senators for the GOP.

The current "toss up" states on RCP that I am calling for the GOP:

MT, AZ, TX, MO, TN, FL, IN

That's 7 of the current 8 "toss up" states that are going to swing to the GOP. The only toss up that I have currently going DEM is Nevada.

FLIPS

DEMS flip Nevada

GOP flips ND, FL, IN, MT, and MO.

Net gain: GOP +4

>>3365773

Yeah, no shit you're new… you just posted in a pinned thread regarding ONLY the Senate 2018 elections… fucking off topic dude… go to a RESEARCH thread.

>>3390876

Well done, idiot! Good job posting this bullshit in a thread titled

"DEFEND THE SENATE 2018"

Fucking retards need to stop with this bullshit already!

BIG NEWS

Texas just got changed from Toss-up to Leans GOP.

NEW POLLS

Arizona showing +6 for the GOP candidate!

Nevada showing +2 now for the GOP candidate!

TENNESSEEEEEEEE

TN IS NOW SHOWING AS "LEANS GOP"!!!!!

This means 50 Senate seats for the GOP, 6 toss-ups to go (4 of which are held by DEMS, and all of which we can win)…

We may end up with 56 GOP senators when it's all done!

>>3453239

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html