Counter Intellegence global telegram Excerpt from a russtrat article on Kazakhstan.
The question of wording in understanding the crisis on the territory of Kazakhstan has a very substantive meaning. Because the main question of what is happening is "what was that?" To consider the riots in Kazakhstan as another manifestation of "color revolutions" in their traditional sense, two fundamental points are still hindered by two fundamental points: firstly, the protest did not have leaders and, secondly, political demands were not voiced.
After the activation of the CSTO forces in the confrontation between the authorities of Kazakhstan and the radicals, there was a clear turning point, and the resistance of the latter will most likely be suppressed at this stage. However, further events may follow at least two main scenarios.
If the radicals have clear leaders and they are able to formulate a political program of action that looks like an excuse to transfer part of the power, the conflict goes into a long phase. Which, it is possible, will acquire the character of a civil war of low intensity.
Here, a variety of options are possible - for example, the concentration of radicals and those simply dissatisfied with the policy of the leadership of Kazakhstan in specific regions of the country, where its own quasi-power will de facto be established, the interests of which will have to be taken into account.
For Western companies engaged in oil production, this option looks quite promising - suffice it to recall Libya or the northern regions of Syria, where civil war does not at all interfere with the commercial interests of corporations. The most unfavorable outcome may be the fragmentation of Kazakhstan into several zones of influence - perhaps even self-determined territories - of conflicting local and global geopolitical players.
The transition of the formed opposition to relatively peaceful negotiations with the authorities is also possible. However, this option again means serious and long-term internal instability for Kazakhstan, which is extremely undesirable given the gigantic land border with Russia, the increased activity of the special services of any states and the proximity of Kazakhstan to regions with a large number of supporters of Islamic fundamentalism.
Taking into account the Donbass factor, the emergence of a new “distraction” hotbed right next to Russia’s side will certainly become a serious challenge, to respond to which it will have to spend significant resources, while avoiding control over the high-risk southwestern, Ukrainian direction.
https://russtrat.ru/analytics/7-yanvarya-2022-0220-7972
https://t.me/CIG_telegram