Watchin' the water ...
Debate Over Water in Southwest Ignores Immigration
Updated: October 16, 2021
The Biden administration’s move to revisit a 2019 U.S. Bureau of Reclamation biological opinion that had relaxed restrictions on water access in California has drawn the ire of state and national Republicans, who issued a statement claiming that “California Democrats and the Biden administration now want to deprive [Californians] of water supplies.”
Yet as Republican and Democratic lawmakers do battle over environmental restrictions on water in the American west, the impact on water availability of one particular factor—mass immigration—has remained obscure.
“Even with improvements in water use, the water supply is going down,” said Jeremy Beck of NumbersUSA, a non-profit that aims to lower immigration levels, in an interview with The Epoch Times. “That doesn’t mean the Southwest is going to run out of water. It means they’re going to have to make some tough choices.”
Those choices could include increased investments in seawater desalination plants and pipelines to pump the desalinated water across hundreds of miles of desert.
Those plants are expensive, with one proposed facility in Pima County, Arizona projected to cost $4.1 billion. They can also take decades to build.
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In a 2020 report on development in Arizona, NumbersUSA estimated that 44 percent of Arizona’s population growth between 2000 and 2015 was due to international migration.
Internal migration within the United States has been another factor, accounting for 56 percent of the state’s growth during that period.
NumbersUSA also projected that Arizona’s population will increase another 3 million by the year 2050, “joining Phoenix and Tucson together into a single mega-city.”
That growth is expected to place additional stress on groundwater and the Colorado River. In August of this year, the federal-level Bureau of Reclamation declared a water shortage at Lake Mead along the Colorado River for the first time ever.
While population growth can stem from natural increase, in the future United States, population growth is likely to be fueled by immigration, both legal and illegal.
Beck cited projections from Pew Research, which suggest that 88 percent of U.S. population growth from 2015 through 2065 will be result from new immigrants and their descendants.
Many of the counties with the highest share of immigrant adults—legal and illegal—are in the southwest on or near the southern border, according to maps from the Center for Immigration Studies.
Pew Research has shown a similar pattern for illegal aliens in a 2016 analysis, with 2.2 million illegal aliens living in California alone.
Of course, as NumbersUSA’s analysis of Arizona shows, internal migration within the United States has been another source of pressure on the Southwest’s resources.
In recent years, many parts of the Southwest, particularly Arizona, Utah, and Nevada, have experienced net in-migration.
Yet internal migration in the country has declined in recent decades, reaching a 73-year low prior to the pandemic.
Additionally, the United Van Lines 2020 Mover Study identified just one Southwestern state, Arizona, among the top ten states for net inbound migration in 2020, at #5 in the country. Other Southwestern states, such as Utah (#17), Nevada (#22), and New Mexico (#20) were in the middle of the pack, while California (#44) ranked among the top ten states for net outbound migration.
Meanwhile, there are some indications that immigration, and particularly illegal immigration, is picking up under the Biden administration.
During just the past fiscal year, encounters between U.S. Border Patrol and illegal immigrants at the southern border have surged, reaching a 21-year monthly high in July 2021.
Senate Democrats sought to provide mass amnesty for 8 million illegal immigrants as part of the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package, though the provision was blocked by Senate parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough.
“There’s no question that the added demand of population will put increased stress on the water system,” said Beck. “These decisions will not get any easier with another 3 million people in Arizona and another 30 million in the American Southwest.”
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