U.S. oil price passes $85 as OPEC wary to increase crude supply
Oil in the U.S. rallied above $85 a barrel for the first time since 2014, another landmark in a surge in global energy prices, while an eye-watering rally in market structure deepened.
West Texas Intermediate rose as much as 1.6%, while global benchmark Brent also rallied. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told Bloomberg Television at the weekend that producers shouldn’t take the increase in prices for granted. That conservative stance was echoed by both Nigeria and Azerbaijan.
The most recent leg higher in the market has been led by the market’s structure, which has been rallying even faster than headline crude prices. WTI for immediate delivery was trading more than a dollar higher than the next month as traders pay premium prices to secure supplies, a bullish structure known as backwardation. The closely watched spread between the nearest two December contracts was the strongest since 2013 and trading at beyond $12 a barrel.
Oil has more than doubled over the past 12 months, and coupled with a global energy crunch it is fanning inflationary concerns. So far, there appears to be little end in sight for the rally, and Wall Street has been steadily upping its views of the market, expecting prices to trade higher for longer. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says consumption is on the cusp of returning to pre-Covid levels, while the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have been restrained in easing the draconian supply cuts imposed in 2020 to salvage prices.
“Continuous global stock drawdowns are still widely anticipated in the coming months and only a dent in demand growth could change the underlying sentiment,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at brokerage PVM Oil Associates.
Prince Abdulaziz said that demand may increase 500,000-600,000 barrels a day if the Northern Hemisphere’s winter is colder than normal and companies switch from gas to crude, he also cautioned that more barrels from OPEC+ would do little to curb costs of gas in Europe and Asia or gasoline in the U.S.
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/10/25/us-oil-price-passes-85-as-opec-wary-to-increase-crude-supply
https://www.macrotrends.net/2566/crude-oil-prices-today-live-chart