tyb
RCAF CFC3385 A310 is back in SoCal after departing yesterday from San Diego Int'l Airport >>123711 pb and at MCAS Miramar.
Was the ANON that winked several times departing San Diego Int'l Airport last week
SPAR168 USAF Learjet 35 departed Vandenburg Space Force Base after a ground stop
Prior stop at Kirtland AFB, NM and depart of Scott AFB earlier today
SAM237 inbound from JB Elmendorf departure after arriving from a Hickam AFB depart yesterday-this is a State Dept AC
SPAR17 USAF C-40C back out from JBA after it's San Francisco depart earlier today- >>123862 pb
Atlanta Fed President Pours Gasoline On Fire With 50Bps Hike Comment, But There Are Reasons To Ignore It
Atlanta Fed President Pours Gasoline On Fire With 50Bps Hike Comment, But There Are Reasons To Ignore It Here we go again.
After we saw a veritable rollercoaster in market last week, after Powell’s shockingly hawkish FOMC presser which spooked Wall Street into predicting that 5 (as JPM and Goldman now expect), six or even seven rate hikes (as per the latest Bank of America forecast) are on deck in 2022 alone, tensions have also remained elevated after Powell refused to refute speculation of a 50bps rate hike this year.
Of course, tensions eased on Friday after the latest set of dismal economic data, which led the Atlanta Fed to come out with a 0.1% Q1 GDP estimate which will turn negative in the coming days after just a few more incrementally negative datapoints…suggested that inflation will fade far sooner and the US economy will slide into contraction long before the Fed can hike even a handful of times, let along go the way to 2.50% or 3.00% or whatever strategists believe the neutral rate is these days. This, together with tens of billions in month end mutual fund rebalancing, sent futures soaring on Friday in the latest violent intraday reversal.
But with futures set to open in just a few hours, we may get another sharp drop at 6pm ET when traders punt risk after yet another Fed official – we would say hawk but that’s meaningless now that even the uber-doves have turned hawkish to appease Biden and his imploding approval rating hinted at a 50bps rate hike in March.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Raphael Bostic, president of the Fed’s Atlanta branch, said the Fed could “supersize a rate increase to half a percentage point if inflation remains stubbornly high.”
Curiously, while not jumping on the latest Wall Street bandwagon calling for 5 or more hikes in 2022, Bostic instead stuck to his call for only three quarter-point interest rate increases in 2022, with the first coming in March, but he said a more aggressive approach was possible if warranted by the economic data.
That, the FT notes, could mean rate rises at each of the seven remaining policy meetings in 2022, or even the possibility of the Fed increasing the federal funds rate by half a percentage point, double its typical amount and a tool it has not used in roughly two decades.
“Every option is on the table for every meeting,” Bostic said on Friday. “If the data say that things have evolved in a way that a 50 basis point move is required or [would] be appropriate, then I’m going to lean into that . . . If moving in successive meetings makes sense, I’ll be comfortable with that.”
“I do think that a view has emerged that we have some meetings that we really just dial it in and that there’s no ability of action at, and that’s just never been my mindset.
Bostic added that he would be watching closely for a deceleration in monthly consumer price gains and further evidence that rising wages are not feeding meaningfully into higher inflation when thinking about his forecast for interest rates. Which means that the next CPI print will be especially important.
And, as we noted on Friday, the Atlanta Fed president said he was encouraged by the latest employment cost index (ECI) report, which was published on Friday and which showed a sequential decline, which prompted Bostic to expect a moderation in wage growth going forward.
That said, Bostic expressed little concern about the recent market gyrations, and said it was a natural response to a Fed that was beginning to withdraw its support.
“The reduction of accommodation should translate into tighter financial markets,” Bostic said. “The developments that we’ve seen on that front are comforting in the sense that markets are still functioning the way they’re supposed to, and they are responding to conditions in ways that are rational and appropriate.”
moar
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/atlanta-fed-president-pours-gasoline-fire-50bps-hike-comment-there-are-reasons-ignore-it
Prolly why all the 'panic' buying into the close(s) all week.
This is the FRB official (Atlanta) who lowered the GDP estimates last year-see cap #2 when the rest of them were playing Sgt. Schultz
Futures are down slightly but that means little as these can (and do) change quickly in a thinly traded market (afterhours) as you must match size and bid in pre/post trading hours-so no @market orders here and usually just the big boys play with little to no retail
>>123867 lb
SWQ521 737 on approach for Milwaukee-Mitchell from Punta Cana, DR depart earlier today-berry short turn around time.
SWQ309 737 on approach at Long Beach from San JOse Int'l depart
Like I said on friday I hope deez are not just wild-goose chases.
Economic Schedule for week of January 30th
The key report scheduled for this week is the January employment report.
Other key indicators include January ISM manufacturing and services surveys, and January vehicle sales.
-
Monday, January 31st -
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for a reading of 61.7, down from 64.3 in December.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November.
2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for January.
-
Tuesday, February 1st -
8:00 AM: Corelogic House Price index for December.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.
10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December from the BLS.
Jobs openings decreased in November to 10.6 million from 11.1 million in October.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 57.5, down from 58.8 in December.
-
Wednesday, February 2nd -
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 208,000 payroll jobs added in January, down from 807,000 added in December.
10:00 AM: the Q4 2021 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau.
-
Thursday, February 3rd -
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 250 thousand from 260 thousand last week.
All day: Light vehicle sales for January. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 12.6 million SAAR in January, up from 12.4 million in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for January.
-
Friday, February 4th -
8:30 AM: Employment Report for January. The consensus is for 155 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.9%. There were 199 thousand jobs added in December, and the unemployment rate was at 3.9%.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/01/schedule-for-week-of-january-30-2022.html
Japan's Dec factory output falls faster than expected
Japan's factory output shrank for the first time in three months in December as a decline in machinery outweighed a small rise in car production, casting a cloud over the strength of the economic recovery.
Retail sales posted their third straight month of year-on-year gains in December as low coronavirus cases encouraged shoppers. Record infections this month driven by the Omicron variant of the virus, however, are expected to have hit consumer sentiment. Factory production lost 1.0% in December from the previous month, pulled down by a decline in output of general-purpose and production machinery, including chip-making equipment. That meant that output, which came in weaker than a 0.8% decline forecast in a Reuters poll of economists, dropped for the first time in three months. The data showed output growth of cars and other vehicles slowed to 1.5% from the previous month in December, much weaker than the 43.7% surge in November and a 15.9% jump in October. Major Japanese automakers are still struggling with chip shortages. Toyota Motor Co (7203.T), the world's biggest car seller, said this month it expected production to fall short of an annual target of 9 million vehicles for its current business year that runs until the end of March due to the drag from the chip shortage. read more
Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) expected output to grow 5.2% in January and 2.2% in February. The government kept its assessment of industrial output unchanged, saying it was showing signs of picking up. Separate data showed retail sales were weaker than expected, rising 1.4% in December from a year earlier, which was smaller than the median market forecast for a 2.7% rise. That marked the third straight month of increases for retail sales, which were lifted by stronger demand for general merchandise and food and beverages.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/japans-dec-factory-output-falls-faster-than-expected-2022-01-31/
Train wreck 'a comin here....Rates been negative for years here so can't lower dhem
SWQ309 737 departed Long Beach after about 30 minutes on the ground ne
North Korea says Sunday's launch was of Hwasong-12 missile
North Korea confirmed on Monday it had tested a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) on Sunday, according to state news agency KCNA, the first time a nuclear-capable missile of that size has been launched since 2017.
The launch was first reported by South Korean and Japanese authorities on Sunday. Analysts and officials said the test appeared to involve an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), which North Korea has not tested since 2017 when it suspended testing its largest missiles and its nuclear weapons. "The inspection firing test was conducted for the purpose of selectively inspecting the ground-to-ground mid-range long-range ballistic missile Hwasong-12 and verifying the overall accuracy of this weapon system," KCNA said. North Korea has previously said the Hwasong-12 can carry a "large-size heavy nuclear warhead." KCNA said the missile launch was conducted in such a way as to ensure the safety of neighbouring countries, and that the test warhead was fitted with a camera that took photos while it was in space. Photos released by state media showed space-based images of North Korea and the surrounding areas through a round camera lens. North Korea first took such photos in 2017, analysts said. Leader Kim Jong Un was not reported to have attended the test, which was at least the seventh launch in January, one of the busiest ever for North Korea's advancing missile programme.
On Sunday South Korean President Moon Jae-in said the launch takes North Korea a step closer to fully scrapping a self-imposed moratorium on testing its longest-range intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Kim has said he is no longer bound by that moratorium, which included a stop to nuclear weapons tests and was announced in 2018 amid a flurry of diplomacy and summits with then-U.S. President Donald Trump. North Korea suggested this month it could restart those testing activities because the United States and its allies had shown no sign of dropping their "hostile policies." It is unclear if IRBMs such as the Hwasong-12 were included in Kim's moratorium, but those, too, have not been tested since 2017. That year North Korea flight-tested the Hwasong-12 at least six times, achieving three successful flights and three failures.
Controversially, in two of those tests North Korea launched the missile over the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido. In Sunday's test, North Korea said it fired the missile on an elevated trajectory "in consideration of the safety of neighbouring countries." The test "confirmed the accuracy, safety, and operational effectiveness of the produced Hwasong-12 type weapon system," KCNA said.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/N-Korea-at-crossroads/North-Korea-says-Sunday-s-launch-was-of-Hwasong-12-missile
good...still kinda glad I don't have to deal with kids but in some ways not.
Moar cause of what they and parents have been put through.
the hysteria 'bout all that pretty bad here too
Think spouse is only one in her office that din't do it.
#840 early
>>123894, >>123905 Biden Drops Off Hundreds of Illegal Aliens at Florida Hotel-gatewaypundit
>>123898 Q drops # 2557 and 2558 These sister drops came to mind as related to Russia.
>>123903, >>123905, >>123913, >>123926 pf report(s) SWQ flight activity and Canadians back to SD
>>123904, >>123908 Op Ed: Admiral, I Am NOT Ready For War-gcaptain
>>123909 Atlanta Fed President Pours Gasoline On Fire With 50Bps Hike Comment, But There Are Reasons To Ignore It FinancialTimes via ZH
>>123912 Twatter intel: "Cargo on the San Diego dock to be loaded on the USNS Bob Hope who came in today - January 30, 2022"
>>123917 Economic Schedule for week of January 30th-calculatedrisk
>>123920 "it's the calm before the storm"-graphic
>>123921 Japan's Dec factory output falls faster than expected-reuters
>>123922 Archive info update
>>123927 North Korea says Sunday's launch was of Hwasong-12 missile-nikkei
840
Hungarian PM Orbán to visit ally Putin in Moscow
Hungarian AF HUAF500 A319 Budapest to Moscow and on final approach (should be on ground by nao)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/31/viktor-orban-hungarian-pm-vladimir-putin-moscow-russia-visit
SPAR15 USAF C-40C departed Munich Int'l Airport after arriving yesterday from JBA depart
SWQ AC night and early morning activity
SWQ9309 737 departed Bloomington, IL after a groud stop-inbound to Bloomington from Long Beach Int'l ground stop and San Jose Int'l depart yesterday
SWQ9842 737 departed Denver Int'l after an overnight to Las Vegas-then to Phoenix and on ground-moar middle 'o the night activity
cold here too
I did see dhat-
looked for his AC but no luck finding so wherever he went it was not on da scope-or he never left.
Prolly in Joe's basement
Watch Live: US & Russia Square Off In Rare UN Security Council Debate
The UN Security Council in New York is set to meet at 10am EST after the US demanded that Moscow "explain itself" over what Washington has for weeks asserted is "imminent" plans to "invade" Ukraine.
"Our voices are unified in calling for the Russians to explain themselves," Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the US Sunday news shows. "We’re going into the room prepared to listen to them, but we’re not going to be distracted by their propaganda."
But voices aren't exactly "unified" on the 15-member council, given especially China's stance. Lately Beijing has issued rare condemnation of NATO's history of expansion and has called for calm.
China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told reporters late last week that "China and Russia see each other as a priority in our respective diplomacy. There is no ceiling to China-Russia mutual trust, no forbidden zone in our strategic cooperation and no limit on how far our longstanding friendship can go."
Russia has denounced Monday's meeting as a "shameful public-relations stunt" orchestrated by the US: “I can’t recall another occasion when a SC member proposed to discuss its own baseless allegations and assumptions as a threat to intl order from someone else,” wrote Dmitry Polyanski, Russia’s first deputy permanent representative to the U.N., Friday on Twitter.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-us-russia-square-rare-un-security-council-debate
moar if you need yer ears to bleed
o7
One Year After Coup, U.S. Will Slap New Sanctions on Myanmar
The U.S. plans to issue fresh sanctions Monday against Myanmar, a person familiar with the matter said, marking one year since the military seized control of the government in a coup.
The move which the person familiar spoke about on condition of anonymity ahead of the official announcement is the latest step for the U.S., which has led international sanctions against the regime while supporting diplomatic efforts by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Asean has struggled to get the military government to stick to a five-point consensus agreed to last year that includes stopping conflict with civilians.
Myanmar’s generals led by coup leader-turned-premier Min Aung Hlaing have struggled to suppress armed resistance from ethnic militias and pro-democracy forces since overthrowing the country’s civilian government. A widespread disobedience movement has partly paralyzed the economy while foreign investors, mostly Western, exited the country.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in December the U.S. was weighing new sanctions against the junta. The U.S. was also “actively looking” at whether the Myanmar government’s actions toward the country’s Muslim Rohingya minority should be labeled “genocide.” A 2018 United Nations report said Myanmar’s top generals should be investigated and prosecuted for committing genocide and war crimes against the minority population.
Some 1,500 protesters have been killed since the military takeover, and civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi is facing six years in prison with more court verdicts to come. Rising food prices and joblessness may also leave nearly half the country’s 55 million population living below the national poverty line by early 2022.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/one-year-after-coup-u-s-will-slap-new-sanctions-on-myanmar-1.1715945
muh folder gettin' stale-see yesterday goin' after dipshit
just don't habs time to get 'em or make 'em but I still do NS ones later on
Japan F-15 fighter disappears from radar over Sea of Japan
Crew of two left Komatsu Air Base in the central Japan on Monday afternoon.
A Japanese Air Self-Defense Force F-15 fighter jet went missing after taking off from Komatsu Air Base in the central Japan prefecture of Ishikawa on Monday afternoon, the ASDF said.
The fighter was conducting training with a crew of two aboard when radar contact with it was lost around 5:30 p.m. over the Sea of Japan about 5 kilometers west-northwest of the base, it said.
The ASDF said it found some floating objects in the area where the plane went off radar during its search and rescue operation. Around the time the fighter jet went missing, the Kanazawa Coast Guard Office received a call reporting a red glow off the coast of Kaga near the base.
The Kanazawa Coast Guard Office in the prefecture said it received a call around the same time reporting a red glow off the coast of Kaga near the base.
The missing fighter belonged to a squadron that functions as enemy aircraft in tactical flight training, according to the ASDF
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Aerospace-Defense/Japan-F-15-fighter-disappears-from-radar-over-Sea-of-Japan
Komatsu Air Base cap#2
and nao we habs one Hungarian AF AC leaving after one just arrived
HUAF523 Falcon 7X departing Moscow
dis one only been dhere for about 1.5 hours
SAM148 USAF G5 departing MacDill after an overnight-inbound from JBA yesterday
FORGE78 and 94 US Army G5s sw from JBA
coupla VENUS flights out but pretty quiet upstairs and has been.
Later on it will get 'busy' as the end of the month today and whoever din't get the required amount of hours will need to do that by today (training)
right on time next door.
like a bad rash...
kek
updating and habs bun
SWQ9010 767 on the move from Phoenix -Sky Harbor se
SAM148 USAF G5 back to JBA
FORGE94 US Army G5 on ground at Asheville Regional Airport
FORGE78 US Army G5 on descent for Pensacola
KECK219 USAF C-17 just landed at JFK Int'l from Quantico ground stop-inbound from Orlando Int'l earlier today
SWQ9309 737 on descent for Laughlin, NV from Bloomington, IL overnight
#840
>>123894, >>123905 Biden Drops Off Hundreds of Illegal Aliens at Florida Hotel-gatewaypundit
>>123898, >>124021 Q drops # 2557 and 2558 These sister drops came to mind as related to Russia.-additional drops 790 and 1124
>>123903, >>123905, >>123913, >>123926, >>124069, >>124086,>>124089, >>124128, >>124136, >>124138, >>124142 pf report(s) SWQ flight activity and Canadians back to SD
>>123904, >>123908 Op Ed: Admiral, I Am NOT Ready For War-gcaptain
>>123909 Atlanta Fed President Pours Gasoline On Fire With 50Bps Hike Comment, But There Are Reasons To Ignore It FinancialTimes via ZH
>>123912 Twatter intel: "Cargo on the San Diego dock to be loaded on the USNS Bob Hope who came in today - January 30, 2022"
>>123917 Economic Schedule for week of January 30th-calculatedrisk
>>123920 "it's the calm before the storm"-graphic
>>123921 Japan's Dec factory output falls faster than expected-reuters
>>123922 Archive info update
>>123927 North Korea says Sunday's launch was of Hwasong-12 missile-nikkei
>>124069 Hungarian PM Orbán to visit ally Putin in Moscow-guardian
>>124075 Watch Live: US & Russia Square Off In Rare UN Security Council Debate-zh and y/t feed
>>124079 One Year After Coup, U.S. Will Slap New Sanctions on Myanmar-bnnb'berg
>>124084 Japan F-15 fighter disappears from radar over Sea of Japan-nikkei
>>124115 Trudeau Press Conference-y/t
>>124119 Q drop #659-Freedom day 4 yr delta
>>124121, >>124131, >>124132, >>124139 JW speaks (trouble on dis end hearing)
trouble on dis end with server issues so here wut i got in case it still craps
#840
>>123894, >>123905 Biden Drops Off Hundreds of Illegal Aliens at Florida Hotel-gatewaypundit
>>123898, >>124021 Q drops # 2557 and 2558 These sister drops came to mind as related to Russia.-additional drops 790 and 1124
>>123903, >>123905, >>123913, >>123926, >>124069, >>124086, >>124089, >>124128, >>124136, >>124138, >>124142 pf report(s) SWQ flight activity and Canadians back to SD
>>123904, >>123908 Op Ed: Admiral, I Am NOT Ready For War-gcaptain
>>123909 Atlanta Fed President Pours Gasoline On Fire With 50Bps Hike Comment, But There Are Reasons To Ignore It FinancialTimes via ZH
>>123912 Twatter intel: "Cargo on the San Diego dock to be loaded on the USNS Bob Hope who came in today - January 30, 2022"
>>123917 Economic Schedule for week of January 30th-calculatedrisk
>>123920 "it's the calm before the storm"-graphic
>>123921 Japan's Dec factory output falls faster than expected-reuters
>>123922 Archive info update
>>123927 North Korea says Sunday's launch was of Hwasong-12 missile-nikkei
>>124069 Hungarian PM Orbán to visit ally Putin in Moscow-guardian
>>124075 Watch Live: US & Russia Square Off In Rare UN Security Council Debate-zh and y/t feed
>>124079 One Year After Coup, U.S. Will Slap New Sanctions on Myanmar-bnnb'berg
>>124084 Japan F-15 fighter disappears from radar over Sea of Japan-nikkei
>>124115 Trudeau Press Conference-y/t
>>124119 Q drop #659-Freedom day 4 yr delta
>>124121, >>124131, >>124132, >>124139 JW speaks (trouble on dis end hearing)
SWQ9010 767 heading to Houston
gotta get on da phone with irl
back in a bit
server issues seemed to habs cleared