ty W
morning all
JAKE12 USAF Rivet Joint back to RAF Mildenhall after a run over Poland along Ukraine/Belarus border area
no Black Sea today?
RCH799 USAF C-17 Globemaster departed Poznan, Poland ws after about 3.5 hours on the ground
This AC went from Ramstein to Rzeszow-Jasionka Airport, Poland and back to Ramstein on 0208
>>125710 lb
SWQ3516 737 departed Guatemala City after a ground stop last night of about 50 minutes then se and currently over Brazil heading towards Rio or Sao Paulo
Trace has been frozen in this position for about 45 minutes
Habs not seen them this far south yet.
Consumer Sentiment Falls a ‘Stunning’ 8.2% in January
That is the lowest print for all indices since 2011.
American consumers began the new year in a sour mood, as the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for January released Friday showed a “stunning” drop of 8.2% from December.
The overall index now stands at 61.7, down from 67.2 a month earlier and 19.7% below what it was a year ago. The current conditions index stands at 68.5, down from 72 a month ago and more than 20% off from January 2021. The future expectations index fell to 57.4 from 64.1, an 18.8% drop over the past 12 months.
here the funny part....
Most economists still forecast a fairly strong economy in 2022, with the Blue Chip Economic Indicators forecast out Friday showing the consensus is for 3.7% growth in gross domestic product this year and 2.6% in 2023. Those are still rates that are higher than the pre-pandemic trend.
https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2022-02-11/consumer-sentiment-falls-a-stunning-8-2-in-january
graph from zh
The Fed Responds to Report that Fed Chair Powell Traded During FOMC Blackout Periods
A Fed spokesperson has provided Wall Street On Parade with a detailed response to our article yesterday, which documented that trades were made in accounts in which Fed Chair Jerome Powell had a financial interest during a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in 2015 and another in 2019. Fed officials are clearly prohibited from trading before and during FOMC meetings because that is when they have insider, market-moving information.
“Chair Powell has not traded during FOMC blackout periods. The transactions that were reported occurred in family trusts over which he had no control. Chair Powell is not a trustee and did not direct or control the trades. He relinquished his previous role as a trustee in 2012 when he joined the Federal Reserve as a Board Member.
“These transactions were regular trades for the purposes of the trust, e.g., raising money for donations under the terms of a charitable trust. The trust is legally required to make certain charitable donations every year. In practical terms, this means that transactions must occur in order to free up funds for those donations.
“The trust financial advisor was advised of our blackout periods and was directed to avoid transactions during those blackout periods. Although they were aware of the FOMC blackout dates, the advisor mistakenly made some transactions during some blackout periods. These transactions were reported as part of his publicly available financial disclosures, which have been available regularly every year since he joined the Board. They are available to anyone through the Office of Government Ethics website, OGE.gov.”
Flaw Number 1: The 2015 trades occurred in “Powell Family Trusts” 3 and 4; the 2019 trades occurred in the “Powell Family Trust 3.” Powell’s financial disclosure forms, which he signed, define what has to be reported under “Part 7, Transactions” as follows: “Part 7 discloses purchases, sales, or exchanges of real property or securities in excess of $1,000 made on behalf of the filer, the filer’s spouse or dependent child during the reporting period.” Thus, Powell or someone in his immediate household had an interest in the assets being sold during two separate FOMC meetings. The assets were not held in Blind Trusts, so Powell – who has a law degree – should have been on top of what was happening in these accounts.
Flaw Number 2: Powell signed an Ethics Agreement in 2017 where he agreed to the following: “If I have a managed account or otherwise use the services of an investment professional during my appointment, I will ensure that the account manager or investment professional obtains my prior approval on a case-by-case basis for the purchase of any assets other than cash, cash equivalents, investment funds that qualify for the exemption at 5 C.F.R. § 2640.201(a), obligations of the United States, or municipal bonds.” It follows, logically, that Powell would do the same thing for sales transactions, i.e., give his approval on a “case-by-case basis.”
Flaw Number 3: The statement regarding the need to raise cash to fund charitable donations is not convincing. Many wealthy individuals gift appreciated securities to charity, obtaining a tax advantage in doing so. Regardless, in both 2015 and 2019, waiting one extra day to make the trades would have avoided running afoul of the Fed’s prohibition on trading during the blackout period around FOMC meetings.
Flaw Number 4: Powell signs all of his financial disclosure forms, including those for 2015 and 2019. Why didn’t he notice that there were trades listed that occurred on FOMC meeting dates and issue a timely public apology?
Flaw Number 5: According to the Congressional Research Service, this is the prescribed procedure at the Fed that is supposed to prevent the problems outlined above, as well as those of the three Fed officials that have resigned over their own trading scandals since last September:
edited as you already know about the others.
It was not an Ethics Officer at the Fed who disclosed to the public the fact that trades in Powell’s accounts occurred on an FOMC meeting date. It was an activist group called Occupy the Fed
Supervisory ethics personnel at the Fed also did not stop Fed Chair Powell from having upwards of $25 million of his family wealth managed by BlackRock while the firm was given three no-bid contracts by the Fed.
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/02/the-fed-responds-to-report-that-fed-chair-powell-traded-during-fomc-blackout-periods/
Absolutely should be NOWHERE near any type of trading no matter wut the arrangements or circumstances are/were
Saw this being raised yesterday and wanted to see if they actually responded-dhey did...kek
Why Is The Fed Suddenly Holding An Unscheduled "Expedited, Closed" Board Meeting On Monday?
With Fed speakers and their media proxies scrambling to walk-back St.Louis Fed's Jim Bullard's calls for an inter-meeting liftoff and uber-hawkish rate-hike trajectory, it is notable that all of a sudden, The Fed has called for an "Expedited, Closed" Board Meeting on Monday Feb 14th (at 1130amET).-see below for it's release
We are sure this is 'probably nothing', right?
But it got us thinking about the last time The Fed held such a meeting..In late November 2015, The Fed held an "expedited" meeting to "Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks. "
Shortly thereafter, this happened... (The Fed hiked rates for the first time since 2006) February rate-hike expectations have fallen today but remain elevated over recent norms-
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-fed-holding-expedited-closed-board-meeting-monday
The CME expectations have backed off considerably-Cap#3 since yesterday's almost 100% >>125631 pb so they are gonna do something as this article suggests very soon.
Closed Board Meeting on February 14, 2022
It is anticipated that the closed meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at 11:30 a.m. on Monday, February 14, 2022, will be held under expedited procedures, as set forth in section 261b.7 of the Board's Rules Regarding Public Observation of Meetings, at the Board's offices at 20th Street and C Streets, N.W., Washington, D.C.. The following items of official Board business are tentatively scheduled to be considered at that meeting.
Meeting Date: Monday, February 14, 2022
Matters to be considered:
Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks.
A final announcement of matters considered under expedited procedures will be available in the Board's Freedom of Information and Public Affairs Offices and on the Board's Web site following the closed meeting.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/20220214closed.htm
RAF RRR6406 C-17 Globemaster on descent for Kyiv from RAF Brize Norton
RCH467 USAF C-17 Globey departed Rzeszow-Jasionka Airport, Poland west and RCH839 C-17 departed Ramstein east for same-was dhere yesterday
German AF GAF602 Global 5000 departed Warsaw west after an overnight-back to Berlin
German minister says geopolitics a factor in weighing Nord Stream 2 approval
WARSAW, Feb 11 (Reuters) - The Ukraine crisis will play a role in the approval process for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany from Russia, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Friday, striking a more hawkish tone than Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Germany has delayed approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline until at least the second half of 2022, but not cancelled the nearly completed project. U.S. President Joe Biden said on Monday the pipeline would be halted if Russia invades Ukraine. Speaking in Warsaw, Habeck, of the ecologist Greens, said the approval process would be strictly in accordance with European law. "And on the other hand, the geopolitical assessment will always have an influence on the approval of Nord Stream 2," he added. On Monday, Scholz said the United States and Germany had the same approach to Ukraine, to Russia and to sanctions, but he did not mention the pipeline publicly by name over the course of his day-long visit on Washington. Whether the United States and Germany are on the same page over the $11 billion pipeline project has become a crucial question as the two major democracies lead NATO allies in pushback against Russian President Vladimir Putin.
https://www.reuters.com/world/german-minister-says-geopolitics-factor-weighing-nord-stream-2-approval-2022-02-11/
#851 update #1
>>125755, >>125757, >>125767, >>125779, >>125783, >>125791 pf report(s) Ukraine/Polish drop offs, SWQ activity
>>125758, >>125771 U.S. Marines Twat:"An AV-8B Harrier with Marine Attack Squadron 214, @11thmeu, takes off from the flight deck of the @USNavy's USS Essex, Feb. 9."
>>125762, >>125766 anutha 'tough' day for BOTUS
>>125765 Consumer Sentiment Falls a ‘Stunning’ 8.2% in January-usnews
>>125770 The Fed Responds to Report that Fed Chair Powell Traded During FOMC Blackout Periods-wallstonparade
>>125773,>>125774 Why Is The Fed Suddenly Holding An Unscheduled "Expedited, Closed" Board Meeting On Monday?-zh federalreserve.gov
>>125783 German minister says geopolitics a factor in weighing Nord Stream 2 approval-reuters
>>125787, >>125788, >>125789 Venture Global Announces $10 Billion LNG Export Facility In Louisiana-waterwaysjournal Dec 10 2020 and Plaquemines LNG Project, Louisiana + call to dig on Venture Global
>weez a team
yup
US expects Russia to invade Ukraine next week: report
US officials believe Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine and an attack could take place as soon as next week, according to a report out Friday.
PBS foreign affairs correspondent Nick Schifrin tweeted that US officials believe Putin has communicated an invasion order to members of the Russian military and that Washington expects a “horrific, bloody” campaign.
According to the report, a Russian attack would be preceded by two days of aerial bombardment and electronic warfare, followed by a ground assault with the potential goal of overthrowing the Kiev government.
Meanwhile, the Kyiv Post newspaper reported Friday that the US was evacuating all its staff from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine. The paper reported that a mission member told the outlet he had received orders to leave the country by Tuesday.
The State Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
https://nypost.com/2022/02/11/us-expects-russia-to-invade-ukraine-next-week-report/
https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
https://www.macrotrends.net/2566/crude-oil-prices-today-live-chart
AF2 USAF C-32A departed Newark Int'l
Harris in NJ Points to Newark as Model for Lead Replacement
https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2022-02-11/harris-in-nj-points-to-newark-as-model-for-lead-replacement
Kamala Harris dispatched to Munich conference to talk Ukraine later this month
Vice President Kamala Harris will travel to Munich, Germany, later this month for a security conference meant to boost Ukraine against the backdrop of a potential invasion by Russia.
The veep’s appearance at the Munich Security Conference, scheduled to take place Feb. 18-20, “will demonstrate our ironclad commitment to our NATO Allies, reaffirm our shared interest in upholding the principles that have underpinned European peace and security since World War II, and underscore our commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the White House said in a statement.
President Biden addressed the Munich conference virtually last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
https://nypost.com/2022/02/09/kamala-harris-to-go-to-munich-conference-to-talk-ukraine/
Canadian AF CFC3386 A310 departed MCAS Miramar after being here all week as HUSK04 doing some off shore werk on the track.
No ANONs from this one but the week before this AC was based at San Diego Int'l and got a wink almost every day on taxi and takeoff roll and usually switched back to HUSK prior to v1
hello to ya!
kek