>You need just 1 counterexample
this is false. a single counterexample to a probabilistic argument cannot refute it. in the same way that minor anomolous results do not result in rejecting a well formed physical theory. it can certainly refute a full fledged philosophical analysis of something or another (see the immense literature around the Gettier problem - a good synsopsis is Shope's The Analysis of Knowledge). but not an argument rooted in probability.
in this case the likely root of the issue has been pointed out (lots of arrests in the pipeline that have not be prosecuted yet). further, with discussions like this where there is obviously far more available data and data points over a longer time period, one should automatically be sceptical if one or two points are lifted out without a presentation of the wider trends and the context.