tyb
good morning
>dhats purdy...one of the better ones..but I am biased
morning
Europe-Med Activity
Hungarian AF HUAF636 Falcon 7X on ground at Naples from Budapest
Prolly there for immigration meetings is muh guess
Some FOREX news for Hungary and they (Hungary) got the oil deal, not voting against Ukraine and now the bureaucrats in Brussels via FOREX mrkts are attacking the forint to get further concessions out of Orban-guess they din't like bing bent over on that Oil deal
Hungary's sliding forint pressures PM Orban to reach deal on EU funds
The Hungarian forint fell to a record low against the euro on Monday, exposing the economy's vulnerabilities and putting pressure on Prime Minister Viktor Orban to reach a deal with Brussels on the release of frozen European Union funds. Unblocking access to about 15.5 billion euros of EU recovery fund grants and loans, pending approval by the EU's executive Commission, could boost the forint and trigger a winding down of short positions built up against the currency, while also driving down government bond yields, analysts said.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/hungarys-sliding-forint-pressures-pm-orban-reach-deal-eu-funds-2022-06-27/
Got two RAF euro fighters RAF7009 and RAF7008 that were spotted Black Sea just north of Istanbul and now just SW of it
Italian AF PERSE71 G550 SIGINT behind US Navy P-8 Poseidon over eastern Romania-Israelis have a similar AC-2 of them in fact
and speaking of Israel...
Czech AF CEF08 on ground at Prague switched on and he returned from a ground stop in Tel Aviv of 90 minutes then back to Prague-some instructions given perhaps
F35LTNG departed southern Israel heading NW and just crossed the Czech/German border
NATO02 E-3A Sentry AWACS on the track for the G-7 meeting
Swiss AF SUI531 CL-60 on ground and just landed at Zurch from Bern'''
Austrian AF EAGLE11 Eurofighter (don't see much from Austria up at all) west from Graz
Norway AF RAVEN66 Falcon 200 EW (Electronic Warfare) landed at Warsaw (just NW of) from Oslo depart
>>140662 lb
Saudi Banks Facing $43 Billion Tab Get a Rates Breather for Now
Saudi Arabia’s cash injections into banks brought immediate liquidity relief for an industry still in the grip of a funding challenge.
The interest rate banks charge one another for loans had its biggest two-decline since the height of the global pandemic in March 2020 after policy makers acted to address the worst funding crunch in over a decade. The Saudi Central Bank, known as SAMA, in recent days placed about $13 billion as time deposits with commercial lenders, according to people familiar with the matter. But under the assumption that Saudi banks will expand credit by nearly 14% this year while deposits grow far slower, Bloomberg Intelligence estimates lenders will still need to raise about 160 billion riyals ($43 billion) to finance bigger loan books. The first signs of a turnaround have already emerged, however, with liquidity conditions loosening sharply since Friday’s close. The three-month Saudi Interbank Offered Rate, or Saibor, slipped to 2.9281% on Monday, a decline of nearly 37 basis points in two days. Banks included in Saudi Arabia’s benchmark Tadawul index climbed as much as 1.4% on Monday before losing gains and closing down 0.3% -- still faring better than the country’s broader equities gauge.
I don't know if that (their interbank rate-like LIBOR) is empirical data...LIBOR is and always has/had been a survey so they were able to make up what rates they charged each other but that rate determined what many financial products were set at-they (our system) are still hanging onto that btw and are using a "franken" version of it cause they were supposed to stop using it as they transfer to Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR)-which will probably be just as "accurate"-which to say is not.
The extent of the funding stress among Saudi banks has little precedent outside periods when oil prices were crashing or global crises like the credit crunch of 2008-2009, when the price of crude collapsed below $40 a barrel. This year, by contrast, Saudi Arabia is on track to run its first budget surplus in about a decade after seeing revenues soar on the back of a rally in oil prices above $100 and rising production.
Saudi Arabia’s finance minister said last month that the government would hold excess oil revenues in its current account until at least early next year, as it looks to break an oil-linked boom-bust cycle that has typified the economy in the past.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/saudi-banks-facing-43-billion-tab-get-a-rates-breather-for-now-1.1784439
The 'cost' of always having hopium growth projections.
gibs me a minute
slow for me and inet right now
edit to 723 for format
Credit Suisse "Convicted" of Failing to Stop Money Laundering
Credit Suisse Group AG was convicted of failing to prevent money laundering by a Bulgarian cocaine trafficker, in the first ever criminal conviction of a major Swiss lender in the country’s history.
The verdict, in which a former relationship manager at the bank was also convicted on money laundering charges, was handed down by Switzerland’s top criminal court on Monday afternoon. Credit Suisse will be fined two million Swiss francs ($2.1 million) over the conviction, the court ruled. (A parking ticket amount fine-wise and how many other instances of that where they din't "get caught" but noted for an actual conviction-but no one goes to jail and no major action taken-love how they started it off with the "legacy matter" statement-they said the same shit about the Nazi transactions too)
The decision is another blow to the tarnished reputation of Credit Suisse, which had argued the crimes date to an era when compliance standards were less stringent. It has been struggling with a series of scandals that have sent its shares to near-record lows, and may face a second criminal indictment in an unrelated case later this year. The case was criticized by Credit Suisse for having been brought so many years after the events in question. The bank expressed its “astonishment” in late 2020 when Swiss prosecutors publicly charged it with money laundering offenses, given the alleged crimes took place between 2004 and 2008. Credit Suisse said in a pre-trial statement that it “unreservedly rejects as meritless all allegations in this legacy matter raised against it and is convinced that its former employee is innocent.” But under Swiss law, local prosecutors can press criminal charges against banks if they believe those institutions didn’t do enough to screen clients and their cash for obvious ties to illicit activity. The former Credit Suisse manager, a woman who can only be named as E. under Swiss reporting restrictions, accepted deposits of used bank notes that regularly exceeded 500,000 euros ($528,650) at a time, according to the 515-page indictment. Cash deposits were very common given the parlous state of Bulgaria’s banks at the time, she said in testimony.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/credit-suisse-convicted-of-failing-to-stop-money-laundering-1.1784387
ty
6,500 US Flights Delayed Sunday Amid Continued Travel Chaos Ahead Of Fourth Of July Weekend
While airlines and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) blame each other for soaring flight delays and cancellations that have made traveling across the country a living nightmare, flight disruptions show no signs of abating as the situation worsens ahead of the July Fourth holiday weekend when travel demand will increase. On Sunday, 6,700 flights were delayed, and nearly 900 were canceled across the US, according to data from FlightAware.
Flight disruptions were particularly disruptive over the Juneteenth and Father's Day weekend when tens of thousands of flights were delayed or canceled -- forcing many to sleep in airports for more than 24 hours. On Friday, airline industry group Airlines for America, which represents the country's largest airlines (American Airlines, Delta, United, Southwest, JetBlue and Alaska Airlines as well as shippers FedEx and UPS), blamed the FAA's own understaffing is "crippling" East Coast air traffic.
United Airlines recently slashed flights from Newark Liberty International Airport, citing the airport's construction and air traffic control problems. But it's not just FAA staffing issues and infrastructure woes. Airlines have grappled with pilot shortages after travel demand jumped following the reopening of the economy post-COVID lockdowns. The industry is short 12,000 pilots, United's CEO Scott Kirby recently pointed out. He warned: "there's no quick fix."
I wonder why THAT is...picrel
To alleviate congestion, United, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Delta Air Lines, JetBlue Airways, Alaska Airlines, and Spirit Airlines have all reduced flights this summer. Some carriers are even pulling flights from smaller airports. The blame for this summer's travel mess in the skies is across the board. Airlines are dealing with a historic pilot shortage, while the FAA doesn't have enough staff amid a very robust demand period for travel despite soaring ticket prices. Internet searches for "why is my flight delayed" have spiked to a record high amid all the travel chaos.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6500-us-flights-delayed-sunday-amid-continued-flight-chaos-ahead-fourth-july-weekend
Italian AF 3100 Falcon 900 departed Riyadh, SALuigi Di Maio, Italian Minister of Foreign Affairson that AC back to Rome
Saudi Ministry of Investment to host Saudi-Italian Investment Forum
https://www.zawya.com/en/press-release/events-and-conferences/saudi-ministry-of-investment-to-host-saudi-italian-investment-forum-uc7uohk1
Hungarian AF HUAF 636 departed Naples after a 30 minute ground stop NE and looks like it went to Skopje, Northern Macedonia-frozen at 14K feet at this point
Italian AF IAM3163 Falcon 900 heading to Beirut from Rome depart
Housing: Inventory will Tell the Tale; Altos Research Reports Inventory Above Peak in 2021
This morning Altos Research released inventory data as of June 24th showing that current inventory is above the peak in 2021.
...
Cap#1 of the inventory change vs 2021, 2020 (milestone 3 above) and 2019 (milestone 4). The blue line is the year-over-year data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and dashed purple is compared to 2019. Two years ago (in 2020) inventory was declining all year, so the two-year comparison will get easier all year. Based on recent increases in inventory, my current estimate is inventory will be up compared to 2020 in Q3 of this year (in the next few months), and back to 2019 levels at the beginning of 2023. Inventory will tell the tale!
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/06/housing-inventory-will-tell-tale-altos.html
Local (SD area of SoCal) anecdotal info: a house that had been for sale for a few months finally closed the other day..it was $80k OVER the ask..still a ways to go before this whole thing cools off here but he ain't lying above "Inventory will tell the tale!
yeppers
all those defaulted props sat in limbo-land because they din't want to eat the diff (from the last bubble) and then they shoved what they could into phony and fraudy which is why they always had "low inventory" still tons of those just sitting without occupants-not so much here but in other places in the country.
aye
#953
>>140717 NATO chief says alliance aims to boost rapid reaction force numbers from the current 40,000 to over 300,000
>>140721, >>140739 pf Europe-Med Activity:Hungarians with a quick stop at Naples then to Skopje/Some RAF Eurofighters over Black Sea heading SW-Italian SIGINT and US Navy P-8 over eastern Romania/Czech AF back to Prague after Tel Aviv stop of 90 minutes/F35 left Israel-NATO AWACS AC west of Munich for G-7
>>140721 Hungary's sliding forint pressures PM Orban to reach deal on EU funds
>>140723 Saudi Banks Facing $43 Billion Tab Get a Rates Breather for Now
>>140729 Credit Suisse "Convicted" of Failing to Stop Money Laundering
>>140734 6,500 US Flights Delayed Sunday Amid Continued Travel Chaos Ahead Of Fourth Of July Weekend
>>140735 Weds will be the next SCOTUS opinion day
>>140736 SCOTUS sides with a high school football coach in a First Amendment case about prayer at the 50-yard-line
>>140737 SCOTUS clarifies how district courts should assess prisoners' requests for reduced sentences under the First Step Act
>>140738 SCOTUS sides with two doctors who challenged their convictions for unlawfully prescribing opioids.
>>140739 pf Italian AF 3100 Falcon 900 departed Riyadh, SA Luigi Di Maio, Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs on that AC back to Rome-Saudi Ministry of Investment to host Saudi-Italian Investment Forum
>>140740, >>140741, >>140742, >>140745 Housing: Inventory will Tell the Tale; Altos Research Reports Inventory Above Peak in 2021
Hungarian AF HUAF636 Falcon 7x done at Skopje and north-very quick stops for this one today-picrel
Going to Kecskemet AB now where it began it's day earlier-it also had stops at Weeze Int'l Airport, Germany for an hour and Ramstein AFB for 45 minutes prior to that Naples arrival
Italian AF 3100 Falcon 900 continues back to Rome from Riyadh, SA depart
Italian AF IAM3163 Falcon 900 landed at Beirut (off screen)
This is where the biggest chunks of the NYFRB Securities Lending Ops have been directed at for the last week-two issues of 2 year notes
'''NYFRB operations for week of June 19th-see under Securities Lending Ops-all cap #4 on those and the breakdown(s) of the largest portions of those are listed under "Securities Lending Operations" in the the following linkys >>139959, >>140075, >>140181, >>140370 pb
Poor 2Y Auction Tails At Highest Yield Since 2007 As Foreign Buyers Flee
We start today's two-fer auction special day (there is a 5Y auction at 1pm), with another nosebleeding 2Y auction yield.
Moments ago the Treasury sold $46 billion in 2Y paper at a high yield of 3.084%, tailing the When Issued 3.077%, and the highest yield since December 2007. Just as notably, with the exception of a brief reversal in April, this was the 11th consecutive higher 2Y auction high yield.
The bid to cover of 2.509 was the lowest since March, printing below last month's 2.607%, and was well below the six-auction average of 2.63.
The internals were also disappointing, with Indirects taking down just 51.5%, the lowest since November's 45.6%; and with Dealers holding on to 23.2% of the auction, the most since January (with QE over they will have trouble disposing of this paper) They are still doing it and the first QT failed miserably-it's just not listed under the Treasury Securities Operations so I guess they are 'technically' correct but all this is tied to Notes and/Mortgage backed Securities
>>138076 pb The First QT Operation where $892.684M was offered and only $112.389m was sold-those were 30 year GinnieMae Mortgages
>>140242 NYFRB Statement Regarding Treasury Securities Small Value Exercise-another attempt at QT
^^^ These are 22.5 and 30 year Notes which are tied to Mortgages
Directs were awarded 25.3%, the most since March, and well above the 18.6% recent average. Overall, this was a disappointing 2Y auction which was somewhat unexpected in light of the sharp concession today which saw yields spike as futures rose.
And now we look for the day's main event: the sale of $40BN in "bellybusting" 5Y paper at 1pm.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/poor-2y-auction-tails-highest-yield-2007-foreign-buyers-flee
yes he is
learned a lot from his stuff and you niggas talking about it too-can't forget that
SAM332 USAF G5 departing Rzesow Airport after a ground stop of about 5 hours-clean shirt delivery and going over the final deet's for Zelensky's appearance in front of the NATO meeting...."from Kyiv"...
This AC arrived at Warsaw yesterday
Hungarian AF HUAF636 Falcon 7x up again and west -BIZZY AC here!- from Kecskemet AB
Norway AF RAVEN66 Falcon 20 departed Warsaw and on descent for Papa AB-western Hungary
00000000 USAF B-52 Stratofortress about to do a refueling exercise with CODY01 USAF KC-135 tanker over Iowa
The BUFF (B-52) trace will "freeze" at the point it is at and then the signal will catch up once this is over and they split from each other abit further west
BUFF = Big Ugly Fat Fellow
Mkt Fag, Godzilla and Mecha-Godzilla present: The Gold Act of 1900 and the Market Crash of 1907-setting the stage for the creation of the Federal Reserve
Mkt Fag:"Let us revisit our topic on Financial discussions with Godzilla and Mecha Godzilla-we will be starting with the Gold Act of 1900 and work our way forward from that point, we'll also be bringing some other guests into the mix when time allows as they also have some unique perspectives to offer. This topic is vast and the nature of it is very subjective-so please consider these are the opinions of the presenters, including muhself and all of the original source material is provided for you to also do your own analysis and for your own opinions to be formed on them-please make sure you verify the facts as they are stated and I will make sure that the opinionated portions are noted when they are given." I think we are ready to begin as our two main guests Godzilla and Mecha-Godzilla are in an undisclosed studio located in metropolitan Tokyo......" Are we ready to begin fellas?".
Godzilla and Mecha Godzilla:" We are ready!".
Mecha-Godzilla:"I'm a litle tired after dropping off those phaggits in Munich but let's do this!."
Mkt Fag:"Let's begin...we are starting with the Gold Standard Act in 1900 because there was a lot that happened from that point forward-we have to start somewhere but that also doesn't mean that the things that happened prior to that are any less important-we are using that as a jumping off point....Godzilla..I believe you won the coin-toss so please begin."
Godzilla": Your President McKinley signed dhat on May 13th, 1900 and it removed Silver and made Gold the Standard or sole basis for redeeming paper currency..they basically removed what was called bimetallism which had allowed silver to also serve as a monetary standard. It set the value of gold at $20.67 an ounce and valued the dollar at 25.8 grains of gold....this problem had been around for a long time-like WAYYY back but was brought to a head in the US during your Civil War when actual paper currency was introduced and that really complicated the situation becasue now it was a question of which one to use...it was a mess!..so they did that (Gold Standard of 1900) to eliminate Silver-because THEY had plans for THAT later on."
Mecha-Godzilla:"Yeah that was really fugged up because before that you could redeem doze pieces of paper for either gold or silver and a populist movement came along and wanted to use Silver because it was moar plentiful than gold or at least that wuz what they said."
Mkt Fag:"Gonna jump in here as those are good points but even being "on a gold standard" the system could not help itself and decided that is was now a free-for-all and not long after we had a "sound" monetary policy (that was highly abused) we got the stock market crash of 1907 and this is where JP Morgan (Rothchilds Stooge) effectively took over the markets...Mecha-Godzilla...I'd like to have you pick that story up now."
The Gold Standard Act of 1900 and After
https://mises.org/library/gold-standard-act-1900-and-after
President McKinley signs Gold Standard Act, March 14, 1900
https://www.politico.com/story/2013/03/this-day-in-politics-088821
Mecha-Godzilla:"Ok got it nikka...So it all "started"-LUBS that term..let's say intentionally triggered by an artificial run on the copper markets by Augustus Heinze (President of the Mercantile National Bank) where he started to buy the stock of United Copper-his own company....so that the price would soar..His brothers were in on dis scheme who just happened to own a brokerage firm (Gross & Kleeberg)-Imagine that...but they fugged up and din't think that the short sellers (that he had sold short to) could return the stock and that would keep the prices high...well they did as Otto and Arthur P Heinze-the brokers-overestimated how much of the stock they really controlled."
Mkt Fag:"Yes you are correct so when he margin-called them at high prices he did not expect those shares to be delivered as they (short-sellers) came up with the shares and his play backfired-so you think that short squeeze attempts were a new thing..guess again..it's gone on for as long as there was a mechanism to do it with."
Godzilla:"And buy having the stock delivered the market figured out his game and the price of United Copper dropped and that created a run on banks that he was associated (and there were many he sat on the BoDs) with and you had a feedback loop triggered with many other banks...and in stepped JP Morgan (Rothschild)to 'rescue it'."
Mkt Fag:"This was not the ultimate catalyst as you did have the 1906 earthquake in San Francisco and prior to that JP Morgan began underwriting huge bond offerings funded by the the European Banks-cause "times were still good"-Wall Street has this tendency to over-do it and not let up until they have to-anyway you also had Union Pacific having received it's money from selling Northern Pacific and Great Northern Railroads so what did they do? Let's see..if you had $55,968,000 in cash and the prior year you had $7,345,000 they went full retard and then borrowed $75,000,000 on its notes and buying $131,970,000 in railway stocks."
King-Kong:"Yeah lemme jump in here ..Hi nigga's..no hard feelings ok?...So what that did was basically create the conditions for a very shaky financial system of debt-held capital..so it wasn't necessarily the Heinze situation that caused the crash...but THAT was the trigger the system used to create the "crash".
Mkt Fag: "Please reference the source material for an exact timeline of what habbened during the "crash" portion of this episode-it gives you finer details of it-that we will not go into with the discussion-remember this is so you check all this out and form your own opinion-our guests are just here to present some "color" to it".
The Panic of 1907: How J.P. Morgan Took Over Wall Street
https://www.gothamcenter.org/blog/the-panic-of-1907-how-jp-morgan-took-over-wall-street
Why the Panic of 1907 Led to a Recession
https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/why-the-panic-of-1907-led-to-a-recession
Otto Heinze
https://stevenwarranresearch.blogspot.com/2012/06/otto-heinze.html
Panics and the Fed
https://www.slideserve.com/merton/panics-and-the-fed-powerpoint-ppt-presentation
Godzilla:"The stage is set for JP Morgan to swoop in and take over the system becasue as "luck"-not luck-would have it he formed a committee to decide what could and couldn't be "saved"-and low and behold JP Morgan via that committee took over Mercantile Trust (of which Augustus Heinze was the President) and the real screw job here was he promised one of the other banks (Knickerbocker Trust and coincidentally a large competitor of Banker's Trust-way more on THAT one in a future post-hello Jerome Powell!) but declined to do that and since all of this was under the direction of the Rothchilds US "emissary" August Belmont (the Belmont Stakes Horse Race is named after him-he was also responsible for The Rothys Cuban interests too) it was no wonder that the President and a director of the Knickerbocker Trust Company-Charles Barney committed suicide."
Mecha-Godzilla:"Suicided is moar like it since he knew the details of the promise and a MAJOR competitor was eliminated so TOTALLY suicided because he could have spilled the beans of that but we digress...".
Mkt Fag:"We've really only scratched the surface on this as this was the trigger of one of the largest cases of corporate consolidation in American history and set the stage for the Jekyll Island meetings in 1910 but there was one problem for them..there was still the issue of dealing with the people who were opposed to what they all knew in private was coming...
We will pick up our conversation on this subject with the events that occurred after this YUGE engineered takeover of the financial system as we set the table for the introduction of the Federal Reserve Act in 1913
Moar on Rothchild Rep. August Belmont here-Flamboyant Banker Influenced Business and Politics in Gilded Age New York
https://www.thoughtco.com/august-belmont-1774024
Charles Barney Suicide
https://idnc.library.illinois.edu/?a=d&d=TUC19071116.2.24&e=-en-201img-txIN----
BOXER5:5 USAF C-40C west from JBA depart
ty
that AC coming up...
Possibly seeing some JA stuff here as they said he had 14 days to appeal from when they told him-we don't know when that was (him being told) only that it was publicly announced on June 17th-so assume he was told on June 17th that would leave 4 moar days left-and there has been no announcement on any appeal being filed-Stay Tuned!
PAT78 USAF G5 inbound to RAF Northolt from JBA depart-this AC spends most of it's time over CONUS as FORGE78- It had a trip from JBA to Westchester Cty Airport, NY yesterday for 2h 45min then back to JBA
Remember we had PAT44 go to Stansted Airport on 0510-11-see below linky and cap#2 and that AC also spends most of it's time over CONUS as a FORGE94 flight but it's last visible flight was on 060622 to Appleton Int'l Airport, WI where it still is according to ADS-B
That flight (PAT44) took place when the SAM911 flights were going on and those were over a series of days with all the destinations being the same except one-Stansted Airpport
>>134986 pb Julian Assange Movement/Extradition-and preparation for/being done?
We had the announcement on JA extradition 10 days ago (June 17th) and I would imagine that if they are going to "bring him back"-in public of course cause I don't think he is even there and hasn't been for a long time-it would be through a secured Military Base and not a public airport like Stansted, Luton or Heathrow.
refresh for format fix