ty B and good morning
lubs the title
kek!
>Ebbudy a Planefag Now, NOT We Gotz the SFT'lous GOLD Right Chere
i kinda missed on dat pointing pepe but feex't it
fergot ToT
morning w see ya here and bizzy
nice ta see ya
SPAR19 USAF C-40C on final approach at Songshan Int'l-Taipei City
Don't see anything else visible in the area however there are at least 2-4 fighters escorting this (if it's not just a fake trace) Nancy infamous fer shit like this and that haz already been pointed out and proven
>>144480 lb
There is nuffin on these twatter accts. from Singapore and/or Malaysia just normal BS
They only referenced Hawaii and Guam and posted those yesterday
Belgian AF BAF80 Falcon 7X departed Baku and east after about 90min on the ground for a refuel-departed Brussels Int'l earlier
This is one of two high-level Falcon 7x VIP transports for the Belgian Air Command
SPAR19 USAF C-40C on ground at Taipei with SPAR20 C-40C still sitting at Kuala Lumpur after it's arrival last night (CONUS time)
>qr and TS full of planefag wannabe's
expected dhat-they will quickly move on to the next "thing"
wasn't staying up fer that shit and knew it would be arriving when I got up and dhere it was.
Did they detail every tiny little course adjustment too?
kek
Chinese AF 20149 Y-20-lime green dot heading EN and appeared just east of Tunisia and currently over the northern Aegean Sea-this is their version of a C-17 Globemaster
Russian AF "N" departed Athens (it's displayed as an SU-57 fighter...it's not) heading NW-it is most likely a Helocopter or a drone based on it's traces (speed and altitude observed before)-it's last trace had it heading to Mykonos, Greece on 0728
Swiss AF SUI025 Pilatus PC-24 departed Bonn (home of the German Luftwaffe) after a ground stop of about 30 minutes-heading back to Bern/Belp
what most don't know is that flightradar, radarbox is just an estimated placement based on flight plan but ADS-B is based on actual data rec'd-can still fake dhat too
That is why they went all sperg-a-thon when it was presented as "scrubbed" as many tried to imply-how stoopid do the ijits look from saturday that said "oh she's already there" and there hadn't been enough time elapsed for it to even be believable.
peperetardface.png
JAKE11 USAF RC-135 Rivet Joint done with it's harassment program around Kaliningrad and had a trip up to Estonia prior to that and RAF RRR9912 A330 MRTT (Multi Role Tanker Transport) was on the track refueling fighters as it (JAKE11) passed by and it is now done and heading west
that they brought the other C-40C to the same Airport in Malaysia and it's still sitting dhere makes me question if she even left..they just filming this whole thing dhere?
and this story is patently false with the following statement
Nancy Pelosi’s plane to Taiwan was the most-watched flight in the world
excerpt
"Trackers glued to the service included the state-owned Chinese publication Global Times. “According to Flightradar24, a Boeing C-40C with the call sign SPAR19 has departed from Paya Lebar Air Base this morning,” the Global Times wrote at one point,"
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nancy-pelosis-plane-to-taiwan-was-the-most-watched-flight-in-the-world-11659453646
It clearly moved to Malaysia last night (CONUS time) and left from their NOT Singapore as that article states-they don't even mention that it took off from Malaysia to go to Taipei
>>144511 SPAR19 USAF C-40C has moved from Singapore-Paya Lebar Air Base to Sultan Abdul Aziz Shah Airport in Malaysia
>>144275 pb Economic Schedule for Week of July 31st, 2022
>11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit (which will be a complete and total disaster with revolving credit at yet another record high)
NY Fed Q2 Report: Total Household Debt Surpasses $16 trillion
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Report shows an increase in total household debt in the second quarter of 2022, increasing by $312 billion (2%) to $16.15 trillion. Balances now stand $2 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. The report is based on data from the New York Fed's nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel.
Mortgage balances rose by $207 billion in the second quarter of 2022 and stood at $11.39 trillion at the end of June. Credit card balances also increased by $46 billion. Although seasonal patterns typically include an increase in the second quarter,the 13% cumulative increase in credit card balances since Q2 2021 represents the largest in more than 20 years.Auto loan balances increased by a solid $33 billion in the second quarter, while student loan balances were roughly unchanged from the first quarter and stand at $1.59 trillion. Other balances–which includes retail cards and other consumer loans –increased by a robust $25 billion. In total, non-housing balances grew by $103 billion, the largest increase seen since 2016.
Mortgage originations slightly declined in the second quarter and stood at $758 billion. The volume of newly originated auto loans increased to $199 billion, continuing the high volumes seen in dollar terms since Q3 2020. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased by $100 billion and now stand at $4.22 trillion–the largest increase in more than ten years.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/08/ny-fed-q2-report-total-household-debt.html
kek
nope..just confirms it nothing but a PR exercise..and not eben a good one
>lowerlipout.png
yeah kinda disappointing given the hype
ty muh nizza
that credit report is the don't look here lookit Pelosi thang
if she even there-that other AC still sitting in Malaysia 'should have been' the escort to run 'cover' so you wouldn't know who was on which plane-din't eben do that and it had a sequential callsign SPAR19,20..which would suggest that was it's purpose-seen that before-that how 45 used the 747s as you really din't know which one he was on until they split-one went to the actual destination the other to a different airport (even the 757s that way) so dunno really wtf they were doing with that at this point.
Planefag:Let's haz a look at CONUS
SAM672 USAF G5 west heading to Peterson SFB from JBA
SAM653 USAF G5 also west from JBA
SAM729 USAF G5 north from JBA
SCORE40 US Navy P-8 Poseidon on the track in C-Bay
2 Hurricane Hunters from St. Croix TEAL17and33WC-130J Hercules NW
The FRB just trotted out it's latest jaw-bone BS to cool off the markets-see below on why they keep going up
All this "we're not done raising rates" rhetoric-since they have to be seen saying something instead of actually doing it....they are still only going to raise them 25bp-cap #2(if they even do that)you'll get the latest CPI#s on August 10th-which will actually show that is has slowed and then KANGZZZ Bostic will have updated his GDPNOW bullshit (the next one is Thursday Aug 4th and will probably have one moar prior to CPI)
All this talk about stocks rallying and it is "hated"-they totally want that so it puts people to sleep... (wtf do people expect with record numbers of buybacks, still too cheap access to capital and NYFRB Operations over $2t a night and every time it flinches to the upside you get a wave of short-covering?
Not rocket science...
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
edit to above
ty
chek yo ears
Planefag Update:Belgians went to Seoul SoKo, SAM729 coming back from a stop at Thule AFB, Greenland (rare sight that is) SAM653 back at JBA after 30m stop at Omaha, CANE11 Nightwatch from Lincoln to Wright-Pat AFB, SCORE40 P-9 done over C-Bay
Belgian AF BAF80 Falcon 7x went to Seoul SoKo-Incheon Int'l earlier
Can't find anything on this as the Belgians are usually pretty tight-lipped about who goes where and when they do it-especially Ursala
>>144563 CONUS Update
SAM729 USAF G5 south from Thule AFB, Greenland-there for about 90m and not a usual sight to see this in/out of Thule as they always vanish when they go up north like this so to get a trace that definitively places it in and out of Thule is not something I've seen very often
SAM653 USAF G5 went to Omaha-Eppley Field for about 30m and back to JBA
CANE11 USAF E-4B Nightwatch went to Wright-Patterson AFB from Lincoln Muni Airport , NE
SCORE40 US Navy P-8 Poseidon went back to Pax River after it's werk over C-Bay
..this article proves muh point of the last few months...totally setting it up as predicted but it is only temporary for these next few readings....cap#1 latest FEDWatch Sept Rate hike-still at 25bp even with all the "talk" and articles today.-removing hikes in early 2023-they told everyone that in Feb of this year as well
Financial markets may see three-month string of 8.8% inflation readings starting next week, adding up to `bad news’ (but peaked!!,,kek)
The financial market’s most knowledgeable inflation traders are expecting a string of roughly 8.8% annual headline U.S. consumer-price readings over the next three months, starting with the Aug. 10 release of July’s data.
While such readings would be below June’s 9.1% reading and support the theory that inflation may have peaked at an almost 41-year high, the expectations of inflation-derivatives traders still adds up to what could be a lot of bad news for the broader market. The reason boils down to the length of time that high U.S. inflation persists, which would upend the hopes of investors, traders and policy makers for a relatively quicker and meaningful slowdown in price gains. The string of 8.8% figures — broken down as 8.78% for July, 8.75% for August and 8.79% for September — already takes into account the recent decline in gas prices, along with a drop in commodities such as wheat W00, -3.28%, and would come while the Federal Reserve is in the midst of an aggressive rate-hike campaign. Hopes that inflation may have peaked in June may be obscuring the risk that a wage-price spiral could still develop and that price gains in other areas, like shelter, could accelerate or remain sticky, some say.
On Tuesday, top officials at the Fed said the central bank needs to raise interest rates a lot higher and probably keep them high for awhile to contain the worst outbreak of inflation in almost 41 years.(but they won't do it-they will only talk about it-today's FEDWatch moved a little in the direction of a 50bp hike in Sept but they will not be doing that as the "all-clear signal will have been given by those coming CPI # releases)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-markets-may-see-three-month-string-of-8-8-inflation-readings-starting-next-week-adding-up-to-bad-news-11659464595
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
>>144511 lb
SPAR20 USAF C-40C departed Sultan Abdul Aziz Shah Airport, Kuala Lumpur-Malaysia after arriving yesterday prior to Nancy's departure "to Taipei"
I would look for Nancy's AC to move on to Seoul later on in it's day as it is just 8:30am in the morning in Kuala Lumpur departure and Taipei and 9:30am in Seoul-the next purported destination fer that group
edit to ^^ add times and fix format
THIS....what a total retard..and the St. Louis FED is basically the data 'hub' for the entire FRB system and the final sentence in this article.....no werds...'
Fed’s James Bullard expresses confidence that the economy can achieve a ‘soft landing’
St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said Tuesday that he still thinks the economy can avoid a recession, even though he expects the central bank will need to keep hiking rates to control inflation.
“I think that inflation has come in hotter than what I would have expected during the second quarter,” the central bank official said during a speech in New York. “Now that that has happened, I think we’re going to have to go a little bit higher than what I said before.”
The fed funds rate, which is the central bank’s benchmark, likely will have to go to 3.75%-4% by the end of 2022, Bullard estimated. It currently sits at 2.25%-2.5% following four rate hikes this year. The rate sets the level banks charge each other for overnight lending but feeds through to many adjustable-rate consumer debt instruments.
Nevertheless, Bullard said the Fed’s credibility in its dedication to fight inflation will help it avoid tanking the economy.Bullard compared the Fed’s current situation to the problems central banks faced in the 1970s and early ’80s. Inflation is now running at the highest points since 1981.
He expressed confidence that the Fed today will not have to drag the economy into a recession the way then-Chairman Paul Volcker did in the early 1980s.
“Modern central banks have more credibility than their counterparts in the 1970s,” Bullard said during a speech in New York. “Because of this … the Fed and the [European Central Bank] may be able to disinflate in an orderly manner and achieve a relatively soft landing.”
Markets lately have been making the opposite bet, namely that a hawkish Fed will hike rates so much that an economy that already has endured consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth will fall into a recession. Government bond yields have been heading lower, and the spread between those yields has been compressing, generally a sign that investors are taking a dim view of future growth.
In fact, futures pricing indicates that the Fed will have to follow its rate increases this year with cuts as soon as the summer of 2023.
But Bullard argued that the ability for the Fed to steer the economy toward a soft landing rests largely on its credibility, specifically whether the financial markets and the public believe the Fed has the will to stop inflation. He differentiated that from the 1970s era when the Fed enacted rate hikes when faced with inflation but quickly backed off.
“That credibility didn’t exist in the earlier era,” he said. “We have a lot more credibility than we used to have.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/feds-james-bullard-expresses-confidence-that-the-economy-can-achieve-a-soft-landing.html
I really hope you see the set-up here...it is absolutely PRICELESS-books will be written about the amount of manipulation to get this recession declared over with before the election-they are well on the way to "achieving" that
sadly that will be lost in the display of muh democracy today
The headlines I saw earlier
"most dangerous day this century!"
I think that was bbc and usually moar tepid Sky Aus were even on that angle too-they usually 'ok' and passable on some things but not on that one today
full on fear pron
Here is a current look at Civil Air traffic in the Taiwan Straight (and not all flights just a handful to show that it is pretty much a normal day) two shuttle flight crossing with another heading to Magong Island-the only difference is that some airlines have chosen to go around Taiwan-Vietnam (Viet Jet), South Korea (Korean Airlines) while others are not-ANA Cargo 747 going through (Tokyo-Hong Kong), Starlux Airlines heading to Bangkok from Taipei-basically a few minor changes but this is not a big deal air traffic-wise
hope they follow through and stay on point since they are gonna habs quite a mess to deal with after early Nov.
64-14837 USAF KC-135 tanker heading back up to altitude after refueling dooty just south of Hong Kong-with SPAR19 USAF C-40C still on ground in Taipei---the biggest nuffin burger ever...good try nancy! but no one is buying yer bullshit
genuinely sorry that din't habben but never thought that was going to be allowed no matter wut-he din't really have much of a chance as total unknown and not there long enough.
Still did it and tried and that is what counts
good on you RW
edit to 589
aye will check before I leave
going soon too
>hope you rest comfortably tonight
beleebs I will have that this evening and hope am a little later for the right reasons...THAT
tap muh nizzas on yer side
ttyitm
thanks for the ear earlier...it helps
goodnight
SPAR20 USAF C-40C east of southern P.I. after it's Kuala Lumpur departure-ima still a bit perplexed as to why they brought this all the way over (from Scott AFB, IL) and arrived just in front of nancy's departure and then it sat until a few hours ago-so did you film all this shit there?-who knows but nancy's past with "visiting" places isn't exactly spot free
It would have made the most sense if they did what I thought they were doing last night >>144514 lb namely using this as a 'cover' AC so no one would know which one she was on-but they din't even do that and for this planefag that just doesn't make any sense especially when you look at the lengths they went through to demonstrate the "danger" of this...it is a complete failure from even a third world propaganda PR stunt perspective-never thought I'd say it but I feel embarrassed for them and especially the Politicians that are on this trip too...no pictures of Singapore or even Malaysia??-just absolute state of utter desperation-the way they did it-just waltz right in to a supposedly "hot-spot"..just not believable at all imo
#979
>>144534, >>144537 SPAR19 USAF C-40C began it's descent to Taipei Songshan Airport from Sultan Abdul Aziz Shah Airport departure-SPAR20 USAF C-40C is still sitting on the ground in Malaysia and on final at Taipei
>>144539 Belgian AF BAF80 Falcon 7X departed Baku and east after about 90min on the ground for a refuel-departed Brussels Int'l earlier-SPAR19 on ground at Taipei
>>144542 Montana morning from Ben Garrison-betty nice
>>144543 Planefag Med and Europe: Chinese AF 20149 Y-20-lime green dot heading EN and appeared just east of Tunisia and currently over the northern Aegean Sea-this is their version of a C-17 Globemaster-Russian AF "N" departed Athens (it's displayed as an SU-57 fighter...it's not) heading NW
>>144550 They can't even get the airport where she "left" from correct and failed to mention it left from Malaysia-Nancy Pelosi’s plane to Taiwan was the most-watched flight in the world
>>144551, >>144555, >>144561 Now China is threatening to shoot missiles into the middle of the ocean like a North Korea temper tantrum and a look at commercial air traffic in the Taiwan straight-Air Hong Kong A330 Shanghai to Hong Kong right down the middle of the Taiwan straight....:I
>>144553 Dr.SHIVA LIVE: What IS A Revolution? The Elites Are FULLY Prepared for One. Are YOU? y/t
>>144554 NY Fed Q2 Report: Total Household Debt Surpasses $16 trillion
>>144560 This is how the people of Taiwan are greeting Piglosi. This trip still makes no sense unless it is to distract from democrat cheating in the primaries this week
>>144562 45 TS: "Why is Crazy Nancy Pelosi in Taiwan. Always causing trouble. Nothing she does turns out well (Two failed Impeachments, loss of House, etc.). WATCH!"
>>144563 Planefag: Let's haz a look at CONUS: SAM672 to Peterson, 653 west, 729 due north SCORE40 P-8 over C-Bay 2 Hurricane Hunters NW from St. Croix TEAL17,33
>>144565 FRB sends out the tardzz to cool off the markets they fugged up-here how it going down
>>144570 Planefag Update:Belgians went to Seoul SoKo, SAM729 coming back from a stop at Thule AFB, Greenland (rare sight that is) SAM653 back at JBA after 30m stop at Omaha, CANE11 Nightwatch from Lincoln to Wright-Pat AFB, SCORE40 P-9 done over C-Bay
>>144572 Financial markets may see three-month string of 8.8% inflation readings starting next week, adding up to `bad news’ (but peaked!!,,kek)
>>144573 SPAR20 USAF C-40C departed Sultan Abdul Aziz Shah Airport, Kuala Lumpur-Malaysia after arriving yesterday prior to Nancy's departure "to Taipei"
>>144576 Fed’s James Bullard expresses confidence that the economy can achieve a ‘soft landing’ because "they have moar credibility in THIS era" HFS they are so lost
>>144578, >>144579 Listen very closely to what Nancy Pelosi says…. 👂👀 So who is in charge of our government? The Military is in full control, America!
>>144585 Civil Air traffic confirms Pelosi visit is a nuffin burder-as much as they try to hype it..FAIL
>>144586 SAM537 USAF G5 arriving at JBA from Anchorage-Ted Stevens Int'l and Osan AB SoKo departure/SAM729 USAF G5 just landed at JBA from Thule AFB, Greenland
>>144589 64-14837 USAF KC-135 tanker heading back up to altitude after refueling dooty just south of Hong Kong-with SPAR19 USAF C-40C still on ground in Taipei
>>144590 Arizona District 2 results-RW din't make it through but he tried and many don't do anything and respect must be giveno7
>>144595 SPAR20 USAF C-40C east of southern P.I. after it's Kuala Lumpur departure-ima still a bit perplexed as to why they brought this all the way over (from Scott AFB, IL)
SPAR19 USAF C-40C went to Osan AB, SoKo Nancy and the Politicians from Taipei depart-it landed just over 2 hours ago and SPAR20 USAF C-40C went to Okinawa, Kadena AB from it's Kuala Lumpur departure, it has been there for about 8 hour
South Korea’s Yoon on summer holiday as Nancy Pelosi visits Seoul from Taiwan
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3187595/south-koreas-yoon-summer-holiday-nancy-pelosi-visits-seoul
Interdasting that SoKo's new President is not 'available' fer nancy also remember on her Hawaii stop the INDO-PAC commander (Aquilino) was 'bizzy' in New Zealand and if she goes to Japan I wonder if Kishida will be unavailable as well
Reducing the size of auctions (I've noticed they have also give some 'extensions' to the NYFRB Securities Lending portion of these as well) the last one being a 6 month bill for $12m and the bigger one was a 1 year bill @ $175m-it kinda doesn't matter them shrinking the size of these when you can put it into the NYFRB Ops on the 'spin cycle' and those are now up and over $40b nightly nao**
Treasury Slashes Auction Sizes Through October Despite QT, Plans Biggest Cuts To 20Y Bond
In a time when the Fed's QT is expected to soak up sloshing investor liquidity, while the end of Fed TSY buying (and phased out rolling of maturities) is meant to lead to a (gradual) increase in Treasury auction sizes, today's quarterly refunding announcement by the Treasury was counterintuitive, because instead of boosting the size of auctions across the curve for August and futures months, the Treasury reduced its quarterly sale of longer-term debt for a fourth straight time (in line with expectations) and laid out plans for cuts to a range of maturities in coming months, with the 20-year bond - which has long been "kinked" on the curve and paying a higher yield than even 30Y paper - singled out for the biggest trimming.
The Treasury Department said in a statement in Washington that it will sell $98 billion of long-term securities at its so-called quarterly refunding auctions next week -- down from May’s $103 billion. According to Bloomberg, this marks the longest string of declines in about eight years. The offering sizes are as follows:
*$42 billion of 3-year notes on Aug. 9, compared with $45 billion at the May refunding and $43 billion at the July auction
*$35 billion of 10-year notes on Aug. 10, compared with $36 billion last quarter
*$21 billion of 30-year bonds on Aug. 11, versus $22 billion in May
This issuance will raise $43.9 billion in new cash from private investors, which is a very modest number considering the trillions in excess liquidity floating around. Indeed, as Bloomberg also notes, the continued shrinkage in TSY auctions "rebuts the notion that the Fed’s QT is having an immediate impact in soaking up investor cash-- if SOMA redemptions were going to bite, they would result in higher issuance." Alas, that is not happening, since for now the Treasury has yet to decide whether and when it will need excess cash; meanwhile there are roughly $2.2 trillion in excess liquidity parked at the Fed's O/N Reverse Repo facility (Every single day) The most acute auction cuts came at the 20 year tenor: the Treasury anticipates cuts of $2 billion to both the new and reopened 20-year bond auction sizes starting in August. According to the Treasury, market participant feedback in the past quarter has indicated that slightly larger reductions to 20-year bond auction sizes relative to surrounding maturities would improve the structural supply and demand balance at the tenor, but also noted that it was important to ensure benchmark liquidity size and that any adjustments be made in the context of Treasury’s regular and predictable issuance framework.
The Treasury said that feedback from market participants showed that slightly larger cutbacks to the 20-year than for other securities “would improve the structural supply and demand balance” for that bond. But the department was also told “it was important to ensure benchmark liquidity size.”
Some dealers had predicted even bigger reductions for the 20-year bond, given demand that’s been so low as to contribute to that security yielding more than both 10-year and 30-year Treasuries. Needless to say, as shown below, the Treasury needs all the help it can get in normalizing the curve.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-slashes-auction-sizes-through-october-despite-qt-plans-biggest-cuts-20y-bond
(This is the Primary Dealers-cap #3 telling Treasury we have enough of this shit and don't need anymoar-while they (NYFRB) continue to buy almost $1B in Mortgage Backed Securities every day from them (counter-parties)-see cap #3-$832m today and they 'showed up with $2.498B to sell-also see cap #4 for the complete balance sheet and how much they have "reduced it" only $8.882B but that number keeps going back up with the daily buys of the MBS-so sometime after the year 20,000-well after in fact-they will finally reduce this to something under $500B at the current rate-so NEVER
** $41.883B yesterday accepted
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/securities-lending
The rush to 'sell' showing up in data as the FOMC raised rates last week and since they have been 'managing' the 30 year bond (that is in the top 5 on the NYFRB 'spin cycle' Securities Lending Ops) and the MBS buys Fannie/Freddie 30y-see below-mortgage rates have decreased
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications increased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 29, 2022.
... The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 82 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates declined last week following another announcement of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, with the likelihood of more rate hikes to come. Treasury yields dropped as a result, as investors continue to expect a weaker macroeconomic environment in the coming months. The 30-year fixed rate saw the largest weekly decline since 2020, falling 31 basis points to 5.43 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The drop in rates led to increases in both refinance and purchase applications, but compared to a year ago, activity is still depressed. Lower mortgage rates, combined with signs of more inventory coming to the market, could lead to a rebound in purchase activity.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) decreased to 5.43 percent from 5.74 percent, with points increasing to 0.65 from 0.61 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
Cap#1 refinance index since 1990. With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months. The refinance index is just above the lowest level since the year 2000.
Cap #2 shows the MBA mortgage purchase index According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 16% year-over-year unadjusted. The purchase index is now only 14% above the pandemic low.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/08/mba-mortgage-applications-increase-in.html
Remember when the NYFRB buys the MBS in it's daily operations this drives the rate down-the ones they are targeting are the Fannie/Freddie 30 year so you want to know why rates drop for 30 year fixed mortgages when the FOMC is raising Prime?..there is yer answer and they will never stop this
Hungarian AF HUAF647 Falcon 7X departed Teterboro Airport SWFM Péter Szijjártóafter arriving on 0801 and attending the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty conference in New York
Stop Spread of Nuclear Weapons, Hungarian FM Spells Out in New York
https://xpatloop.com/channels/2022/08/stop-spread-of-nuclear-weapons-hungarian-fm-spells-out-in-new-york.html#
SAM709 USAF G5 departed Robbins AFB after a about 3h30m on the ground and back to JBA
SAM686 USAF G5 heading to MacDill AFB (CENTCOM) from JBA depart
They, Japanese, have no choice to continue to go along with whatever the Russians are gonna do with this..as to say they are along for the ride with no real alternatives...sucks to be you'
Russia Orders New Sakhalin-2 Operator to Be Set Up in Far East
Russia’s government ordered the establishment of a new operator for the Sakhalin-2 gas project in the Far East region, according to a document published in the nation’s legal database.
The entity, called Sakhalinskaya Energija, is to be based in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, the main city of the Sakhalin island, where the project is located, according to the order. Russia’s gas giant Gazprom PJSC will hold just over 50% in the company, in line with its ownership in the former operator Sakhalin Energy.
The order follows an earlier decree by President Vladimir Putin, which required transfer of the project operator from Bermuda to a new Russian entity amid risks to the country’s interests and economic security. Foreign shareholders in Sakhalin-2, which in addition to offshore gas fields includes Russia’s first liquefied-gas plant, have one month from the entity’s establishment to decide whether they want to take a holding in the new company.
So far, Russia’s commercial register has no information on Sakhalinskaya Energija. Shell Plc, with a 27.5% stake in the facility, announced it would exit the project after Russia invaded Ukraine. Its chief executive officer, Ben van Beurden, said the energy major is “entirely unlikely” to take a stake in the new Sakhalin entity.
Japanese trading houses Mitsubishi Corp. and Mitsui & Co own a combined 22.5% in Sakhalin-2. Japan, the biggest buyer of LNG from the plant that’s been operating since 2009, said it needs to study what contracts under the decree would look like, and discuss its response with Japanese stakeholders, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on July 1 after the project’s reshuffle was first announced.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/russia-orders-new-sakhalin-2-operator-to-be-set-up-in-far-east-1.1800965
SLAM45 USAF C-17 Globemaster hooking up with RATS32 USAF KC-135 tanker off SoCal for a refueling exercise
Hungarian AF HUAF647 Falcon 7X went to Dallas-Love FieldPM Orban and FM Szijjártófrom Teterboro depart
Correcting who is on this AC-it looks like it's being shared by the Hungarian PM Viktor Orban and Péter Szijjártó as Orban met with 45 yesterday in Bedminister-Orban is scheduled to speak at Texas CPAC that begins tomorrow
Trump meets with Hungarian Prime Minister Orban ahead of Texas CPAC
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/trump-meets-viktor-orban-ahead-cpac-texas
SNOOP44 USAF RC-135 Rivet Joint west from Lincoln Muni, NE
>>140422 DTCC waived a $9.7 billion margin call to prevent the collapse of Robinhood-US House Committee on Financial Services Report
But an almost $10B margin call?..nope-Reg SHO is probably the LEAST enforced (and most abused) rule they, SEC, haz-cause if they did actually enforce it just about the entire financial system would be charged and they can't have that so interdasting that they even decide to have a look at this and they still let Robinhood operate even though it's owner (Vlad Tenev) habs no (FINRA) license and they get around that by saying he is the the CEO of the parent Co-so you think they should be addressing that as well but no
Robinhood Faces SEC Probe on Compliance With Short-Selling Rule
Robinhood Markets Inc. said it faces a US Securities and Exchange Commission investigation into the brokerage’s compliance with a short-selling rule.
The SEC’s enforcement division requested information about Robinhood’s adherence to Regulation SHO and matters related to securities lending and fractional shares, the Menlo Park, California-based company said Wednesday in a filing.
The online brokerage, which slashed 23% of its workforce this week, has faced several regulatory actions in recent years.
On Tuesday, Robinhood’s cryptocurrency arm was fined $30 million by the New York State Department of Financial Services, which accused the firm of violating anti-money-laundering and cybersecurity rules. In 2020, the SEC fined Robinhood $65 million for misleading its customers about a key source of revenue, called payment for order flow. The firm didn’t admit or deny wrongdoing in that case.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/robinhood-faces-sec-probe-on-compliance-with-short-selling-rule-1.1801170
Reg SHO: Regulation SHO is a set of rules from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) implemented in 2005 that regulates short sale practices.
Regulation SHO established "locate" and "close-out" requirements aimed at curtailing naked short selling and other practices. Naked shorting takes place when investors sell short shares that they do not possess and have not confirmed their ability to possess.
moar
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/regsho.asp
This is a direct result of all of the NYFRB Ops-these wild-gyrations-it isn't becasue 1 day there is all this "organic buying" and the next day not...it is simply a result of the Securities Lending Ops...which today they did $46.266B w/ the 10y coming in at $1.954B and you can see this operation in effect on the 10y-it's over at 12pm EST green line but it begins at the days peak red line
Treasury Curve Inversion Deepens as Yields Jump and Then Plunge
The inversion of the Treasury yield curve deepened Wednesday as the market proved volatile once again, with yields surging on the back of increased confidence about the prospect of Federal Reserve hiking interest rates and then tumbling anew before the day was out.
The gap between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields shifted to a fresh extreme, with the longer rate dropping to be as much as 38 basis below the longer benchmark. That level on the widely watched yield curve metric, seen by many as a potential harbinger of recession, hasn’t been seen since 2000. The benchmark 10-year rate climbed as much as 10 basis points to 2.85% during the US morning, while shorter-dated yields rose even more as traders briefly moved to price in the potential for a 75-basis-point Fed hike next month at around 1-in-2. By late in the US afternoon though, short-end yields were close to where they ended the prior day, while longer end rates were falling, with the 10-year ending around 2.70% (and all becasue of this operation-you don't need to accomplish it all-just get the ball rolling-and rolling they did-this habbens everyday and yet these 'professionals' simply ignore all this going on) The slide weighed on the greenback, with the Bloomberg dollar index down marginally for the day after being up close to 0.4% at one stage during the session. “Yields rose to levels that looked attractive and the buyers started with the back end and it feels like cash was being put to work in fixed income,” said George Goncalves, head of US macro strategy at MUFG. “There is no sense of a catalyst,(no..NONE whatsoever...DERP! just keep ignoring the almost to $50B a day sloshing around in the markets you are paid to ANALysze) but the fact the market can’t hold higher rates suggests there is some skepticism among investors that the Fed will not really deliver on its tough talk.” (they won't-we've already shown this as the expectations for Sept is still at 25bp so talk is cheap-and that is all they do)
A cavalcade of comments by Fed officials and stronger-than-expected data on the US services sector helped drive the earlier move up in yields, while US stocks also advanced for the day. (and as shown in the caps they produce a result and today's example is no different as you see $1.954B thrown at the 10 year -at it;s high (yield-wise) and then the cascade down-while this is going on-cap #1)
The moves are just the latest in a long line of intraday reversals seen in the market recently. With uncertainty over growth, inflation and central bank policy having picked up, there has been an increase in daily moves of this scale over recent months and a concomitant pickup in various volatility measures. Yet even with the pullback late Wednesday, rates on key benchmarks remain above the levels they were at as recently as Monday, with much of the enormous surge in yields seen Tuesday still being maintained.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/treasury-curve-inversion-deepens-as-yields-jump-and-then-plunge-1.1801153
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/securities-lending
edit to above
German AF GAF918 A330Foreign Minister Annalena BAERbockstopped off in Montreal after the Nuclear NPT meeting in New York for the continuing saga of hide muh turbine and blame muh Russians
Annalena Baerbock thanks Canada for delivery of turbines
https://newsrnd.com/news/2022-08-03-montreal--annalena-baerbock-thanks-canada-for-delivery-of-turbines.HkZaKYXOpq.html
So this turbine bullshit---here is a picture of Olaf Scholz with it earlier today-this is COMPLETELY a Siemans issue as they are not releasing the paperwork for it to be shipped back and re-installed-instead they are creating the issue so they can say it's all muh russia.
dhat the funny part-SoKo has a serious glut of chips due to demand destruction and in all this bullshit Taiwan visit the Chinese haz cut off or reduced the sand exports which they need to produce those chips.
Then Paul Pelosi pleads not guilty-tried to weasel his way out with the 11-99 placard (which a fren of mine had years ago and got out of many tickets that way) he certainly din't commit multiple felonies and try to use it that way.
It's a "you've made a sizable donation to the CHP" and get out of speeding tickets (regular ones that you are not endangering people etc-that is it's original intent) thang..NOT fer shit like that-it used to be just a license plate frame but those too easy to fake and then people like this asshoe uses it fer actual crimes
#979
>>144534, >>144537 SPAR19 USAF C-40C began it's descent to Taipei Songshan Airport from Sultan Abdul Aziz Shah Airport departure-SPAR20 USAF C-40C is still sitting on the ground in Malaysia and on final at Taipei
>>144539 Belgian AF BAF80 Falcon 7X departed Baku and east after about 90min on the ground for a refuel-departed Brussels Int'l earlier-SPAR19 on ground at Taipei
>>144542 Montana morning from Ben Garrison-betty nice
>>144543 Planefag Med and Europe: Chinese AF 20149 Y-20-lime green dot heading EN and appeared just east of Tunisia and currently over the northern Aegean Sea-this is their version of a C-17 Globemaster-Russian AF "N" departed Athens (it's displayed as an SU-57 fighter...it's not) heading NW
>>144550 They can't even get the airport where she "left" from correct and failed to mention it left from Malaysia-Nancy Pelosi’s plane to Taiwan was the most-watched flight in the world
>>144551, >>144555, >>144561 Now China is threatening to shoot missiles into the middle of the ocean like a North Korea temper tantrum and a look at commercial air traffic in the Taiwan straight-Air Hong Kong A330 Shanghai to Hong Kong right down the middle of the Taiwan straight....:I
>>144553 Dr.SHIVA LIVE: What IS A Revolution? The Elites Are FULLY Prepared for One. Are YOU? y/t
>>144554 NY Fed Q2 Report: Total Household Debt Surpasses $16 trillion
>>144560 This is how the people of Taiwan are greeting Piglosi. This trip still makes no sense unless it is to distract from democrat cheating in the primaries this week
>>144562 45 TS: "Why is Crazy Nancy Pelosi in Taiwan. Always causing trouble. Nothing she does turns out well (Two failed Impeachments, loss of House, etc.). WATCH!"
>>144563 Planefag: Let's haz a look at CONUS: SAM672 to Peterson, 653 west, 729 due north SCORE40 P-8 over C-Bay 2 Hurricane Hunters NW from St. Croix TEAL17,33
>>144565 FRB sends out the tardzz to cool off the markets they fugged up-here how it going down
>>144570 Planefag Update:Belgians went to Seoul SoKo, SAM729 coming back from a stop at Thule AFB, Greenland (rare sight that is) SAM653 back at JBA after 30m stop at Omaha, CANE11 Nightwatch from Lincoln to Wright-Pat AFB, SCORE40 P-9 done over C-Bay
>>144572 Financial markets may see three-month string of 8.8% inflation readings starting next week, adding up to `bad news’ (but peaked!!,,kek)
>>144573 SPAR20 USAF C-40C departed Sultan Abdul Aziz Shah Airport, Kuala Lumpur-Malaysia after arriving yesterday prior to Nancy's departure "to Taipei"
>>144576 Fed’s James Bullard expresses confidence that the economy can achieve a ‘soft landing’ because "they have moar credibility in THIS era" HFS they are so lost
>>144578, >>144579 Listen very closely to what Nancy Pelosi says…. 👂👀 So who is in charge of our government? The Military is in full control, America!
>>144585 Civil Air traffic confirms Pelosi visit is a nuffin burder-as much as they try to hype it..FAIL
>>144586 SAM537 USAF G5 arriving at JBA from Anchorage-Ted Stevens Int'l and Osan AB SoKo departure/SAM729 USAF G5 just landed at JBA from Thule AFB, Greenland
>>144589 64-14837 USAF KC-135 tanker heading back up to altitude after refueling dooty just south of Hong Kong-with SPAR19 USAF C-40C still on ground in Taipei
>>144590 Arizona District 2 results-RW din't make it through but he tried and many don't do anything and respect must be giveno7
>>144597 @GreggPhillips" We built a contingency plan three weeks ago when Pinal sent out 63,000 illegal ballots...."
>>144598 JW: So um… the people overwhelmingly love all the Trump endorsed candidates… except Kari Lake?
>>144602 SPAR19 USAF C-40C went to Osan AB, SoKo Nancy and the Politicians from Taipei depart-it landed just over 2 hours ago and SPAR20 USAF C-40C went to Okinawa, Kadena AB-South Korea’s Yoon on summer holiday as Nancy Pelosi visits Seoul from Taiwan
>>144603 Treasury Slashes Auction Sizes Through October Despite QT, Plans Biggest Cuts To 20Y Bond-yet continues (via the NYFRB) to buy almost $1b every night of Mortgage Backed Securities and over $2T overall daily operations
>>144604 MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey- rates drop because the NYFRB buys almost $1b in Fannie/Freddie every day
>>144605 Hungarian AF HUAF647 Falcon 7X departed Teterboro Airport SW FM Péter Szijjártó after arriving on 0801 and attending the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty conference in New York-SAM709 back to JBA after 3h30m at Robbins AFB
>>144606 SAM686 USAF G5 heading to MacDill AFB (CENTCOM) from JBA depart
>>144607 Russia Orders New Sakhalin-2 Operator to Be Set Up in Far East
>>144608 SLAM45 USAF C-17 Globemaster hooking up with RATS32 USAF KC-135 tanker off SoCal for a refueling exercise
>>144609 Hungarian Prime Minister Orban and Foreign Minister Szijjártó arrive in Dallas aboard HUAF647 Falcon 7x from Teterboro departure-Orban met with 45 yesterday and is scheduled to speak at Texas CPAC that starts tomorrow
>>144610 SNOOP44 USAF RC-135 Rivet Joint west from Lincoln Muni Airport-Do you Spy Bro?
>>144612 Robinhood Faces SEC Probe on Compliance With Short-Selling Rule-but they let the CEO/founder operate it w/o a FINRA license
>>144616 Treasury Curve Inversion Deepens as Yields Jump and Then Plunge.its the NYFRB Operations Stoopid
>>144620 German AF GAF918 A330Foreign Minister Annalena BAERbockstopped off in Montreal after the Nuclear NPT meeting in New York for the continuing saga of hide muh turbine and blame muh Russians
>>144624 SAM656 USAF C-40B inbound to JBA from Anchorage-Ted Stevens Int'l overnight-departed Kailua-Kona Int'l yesterday after arriving on 0801-SAM754 USAF G5 WS from JBA
dhat it fer me
yesterday 'caught up'
if you can bakes it for a freshy I'll catch ya in the morning
ima going
ttyitm
added to last post
night muh fren