Ty B
morning
quite the imagery of that last night and just who was he really talking to?
got through some of it but not all-muh BS detector broke about 10min in and he even tried to shake hands with air again when I fast forwarded it to the end.
It wasn't the citizens that is for sure.
>#999 last one till 1k..quite a trip I'd say
morning w
hope all is well for ya
>how apropos is this photo
berry
think they had the Sr. Mil up front and that is who all that was for
Planefag:CONUS Activity
SAM959 USAF C-40B departing Ardmore Airport, OK-looks like some maintenance work going on with this..it is a State Dept AC and arrived on 0817 as VENUS31 from Atlanta Int'l and had been there since before May and had 2 VENUS flights out prior to going to Ardmore-so it is now returning to service
PACBRD1 US Navy INDO-PAC brass G5 east from Teterboro Airport, NJ-arrived on 0831 from Quonset Airport R.I. and was there on 0829 from a JBA depart after arriving from Hickam AFB Oahu depart on 0828
UAE UAF1230 C-17 west from Dulles Int'l overnight
Mexican AF FAM3915 G4 SW from Richmond Int'l stop of 90m
REACH143 and RCH144 USAF C-130 Hercules WN from Quonset ANG station, RI-sequential callsign usually mean 'bidness but this is also ANG so mebby just routine
WING19 US Army C-12V Huron 'Special Ops' heading to Green Bay, WI and another one WING78 US Army Beech BEECH 200 Super King Air Ws from Davison Army Airfield
SPAR878 USAF Learjet 35 east from Peterson-this one 'appeared' yesterday heading SE from Anchorage and went NW the day before-dropping and appearing at roughly same place south of Prince Rupert B.C.
FOX321 USMC Beech 200 Super King Air departed Orlando Int'l after less than 20min on the ground -inbound from MCAS Beaufort
>cause of hands position
yeah I wondering that too-shouldn't they be behind back or at side but ima not military and they looked odd-even Mrs G noticed dhat
But here is another example of that so I don't know-not a one-off. This was when 45 departed WH in 2017 heading to Palm Beach (February 03) to be exact so right after he in.
Planefag:Europe Activity some SPICYness over Denmark but just west of St, Petersburg-green dot earlier
SPICY51 and 52 over Denmark nao and were east earlier wif SPICY51 tracking-that cluster of traces-red dot-just west of St. Petersburg and both got a fill-up from HOBO40 USAF KC-135 tanker while it was on the refueling track just west of Estonia
RSAF RSF1219 A330 departed Brussels after a little less than 6 hours on the ground-inbound from Riyadh depart earlier
RCH404 (not one i'd wanna be on) and RCH225 USAF C-17 Globemaster NW from Ramstein departure-RCH225 departed Riyadh yesterday RCH404 departed McChord on 0831
Cap#2 closeup of SPICYness over Denmark
So the 'pressure is taken "off" the FOMC fer the meeting in 19 days and the fakey jobs numbers were revised downward HEAVILY...the current rate hike odds have skewed back a little to the 25bp side but still 'at 75bp' there is still plenty of time (and fake information) to come to get that back to 25bp solidly
August Employment Report
The headline jobs number in the August employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 107,000, combined. The participation rate increased, pushing up the unemployment rate to 3.7%. And the employment-population ratio increased slightly.
Leisure and hospitality gained 31 thousand jobs in August. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.20 million jobs, and are now down 1.12 million jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 85% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. (that is becasue the 10y rolling average model that they use say this so none of this is empirical-and the revisions down tells you that)' Construction employment increased 16 thousand and is now 84 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing added 22 thousand jobs and is now 67 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. In August, the year-over-year employment change was 5.84 million jobs. Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.
The 25 to 54 participation rate increased in August to 82.8% from 82.4% in July, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.3% from 780.0% the previous month. Both are close to the pre-pandemic levels and indicate almost all of the prime age workers have returned to the labor force.
From the BLS report: "The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.1 million in August. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full- time jobs." (this is moar fun with #s as you'll see below they simply vanish from being counted after UE benefits expire thus falling into the U-6 category) This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.
According to the BLS, there are 1.137 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.067 million the previous month. This is back to pre-pandemic levels. (of course it is and I bet Kangzz Bostic will be revising his to many adjustments GDPNOW forecast upwards again)
Summary:
The headline monthly jobs number was above expectations; however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 107,000, combined. The headline unemployment rate increased to 3.7% due to the increase in the participation rate.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/09/comments-on-august-employment-report.html
I left out the last statement...I guess it could be viewed as "solid" if you habs no idea how they put it together-which this author noes better too yet refrains from stating the obvious
>will be revising his too many adjustments GDPNOW forecast upwards again
Did it yesterday and what a WHOPPER IT WAS-a full % point UP-missed it-and this doesn't reflect today's Jobs#s either so this will be well above 3% come the next reading on Sept 7th which is the day before 'small value' QE returns from the NYFRB
GDPNOW-Latest estimate: 2.6 percent — September 1, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.6 percent on September 1, up from 1.6 percent on August 26. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.0 percent and -5.4 percent, respectively, to 3.1 percent and -3.5 percent, respectively.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, September 7.
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
CME FEDWatch shows 60% fer 75bp and 40% fer 25BP-50bp is sort the no mans land.
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
The jockeying for the next FY fundage begins wif....
White House to Seek $11.7 Billion in Additional Ukraine Aid
The White House will ask Congress to provide additional aid for Ukraine in the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1, as officials warn that earlier monies are running out with the effort to combat Russia’s invasion now past its six-month mark.
The administration is seeking $11.7 billion in security and economic assistance for Ukraine in the first quarter of fiscal 2023, a senior administration official said Friday, along with $2 billion aimed at helping to prevent domestic energy costs from going up as Russian President Vladimir Putin squeezes supplies.
The administration also detailed its other spending priorities for the coming fiscal year, including additional funding to combat the Covid-19 pandemic. The White House will request $22.4 billion for testing, to speed up the research and development of next generation vaccines, and to prepare for future variants. The request comes as the US plans a September Covid booster push with shots that are reformulated to deal with omicron variants.
Officials also are also seeking $4.5 billion to fight the monkeypox outbreak. The Ukraine-related funds are urgently needed, the official told reporters Friday in a call detailing the Office of Management and Budget’s priorities. President Joe Biden in May signed legislation in May providing $40 billion in aid to Ukraine. But those funds were only intended to last through September.
“To date, roughly three-quarters of the direct military and budgetary support that Congress previously provided for Ukraine has been disbursed or committed, with even more expected by the end of the fiscal year,” OMB said in a release.
The funding request for the first quarter of fiscal year 2023 will seek $7.2 billion for the Defense Department. Of those funds, $4.5 billion will be for equipment for Ukraine and to replenish the Pentagon’s stocks, with $2.7 billion for other military, intelligence, and defense support.
The White House is seeking $4.5 billion for the State Department and USAID to continue support for Ukraine’s government.
The $2 billion energy-related request includes $1.5 billion to for uranium to fuel US nuclear reactors with the aim of offsetting any decrease in Russian energy supplies, and $500 million to modernize the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, according to the OMB.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/white-house-to-seek-11-7-billion-in-additional-ukraine-aid-1.1814006
SAM959 USAF C-40B returned to JBA-and will be placed back into service nao
WING78 Us Army C-12V Huron went to Bragg while FOX321 USMC Beech Super King Air went to MCAS Cherry Point-this is where the C-560s were in and outta heavily in 2018- up to early 2020: AZAZ09O9, AZAZ0909, GRZLY, and some Priority Air Transport (PATs) as well
WING19 US Army C-12V Huron 'Special Ops' ES from Green Bay ground stop
SPAR898 USAF Learjet 35 went to Mid-America Airport (next to Scott AFB) IL
UAE UAF1230 C-17 Globey went to Amarillo, TX from Dules Int'l depart
REACH143 and RCH144 USAF C-130 Hercules on approach at Eppley Field, Omaha from Quonset ANG Station R.I.
11-9355 USAF E-11A BACN GLEX continues to be based out of Riyadh-was at Al Dhafra-Dhabi before and on the circle track over northern Iraq as the aerial Wi-Fi-for all the different comms platforms for the legacy and newer ACs-this is usually or has been BKLWFXX in the past
BACN-Battlefield Airborne Communications Node
Bombardier E-11A is the military variant of the civil Bombardier BD-700 Global Express for use as overhead communications-relay platform in southwest Asia. The BD-700 was selected due to its high service ceiling, up to 51,000 ft and up to 12 hours flight duration. Initially aircraft was designated as RC-700 under the reconnaissance classification but later was re-designated as the E-11A under the special electronics installations category. The E-11A is a U.S. Air Force aircraft that provides unparalleled communications capabilities to forces on the ground and aircraft in the air. Commonly known as Battlefield Airborne Communications Node, or BACN, this aircraft extends the range of communications channels and enables better communication among units. This element is essential where the terrain may disrupt communications channels and it enables ground forces to know what is around them when something is not in their line of sight.
https://worldofaviation.net/bombardier-e-11a-bacn/
Cap#2 is the inside electronics equipment explained above
This is one of the newer ones as the OG ones had bigger protrusions from the airframe-cap #3
Turkish AF TUAF35:5 C-130 west from Tblisi, Georgia it appears for the second time this week
RSAF RSF1219 A330 could be going to Jeddah or back to Riyadh-continues on from it's Brussels departure earlier
seen't doze
ty fer heads up
it's fryday too
kek
New York Federal Reserve Securities Lending Facility prior to the start of the return of NOT QE..but QE-$46.782B, September 2nd, 2022
Let's have a look at the Securities Lending Facility for today just prior to the "NOT QE but really QE" small value 'exercise' >>147575 lb that begins next week: the total amount for today was $46.782B accepted at full value (PAR) vs. $46.880B submitted for a total of $98m not accepted
Remember the participants are getting FULL value (PAR) for something that..in the largest amount for today of $6.885B the 10 year Note was auctioned off just on August 15th and the second largest amount of the day was the 3 year Note $4.769B and same date of issue-so what you have is a total of 26% ($11.654B) of that entire amount lent(i.e. created out of thin-air)for just one day and applied to the 3 and 10 year note(s).
The action in the 3 year is moar evident over the 5 day chart as they are actively manipulating both of them into a range to suit the narrative of any given day-it is moar obvious to see in the three year-with today being reeeeally obvious-Cap #3
Keep is mind that the total amount of the 10 year auction for that date was $35B so a grand total of 19.67% of that total issuance was "lent" to the NYFRB counter-parties for ONE trading day (it settles on Sept 6th since the markets are closed on the 5th)...MAGIC!!
The same dynamic applies to the 3 year but a lower %- $42B total and 11.23% created out of thin air and 'lent' to those counter-parties..the same process has been repeated day, after day, after day bin ever increasing total amounts and has recently stayed in teh $40-48B level after dropping below $40B while the YEN shit was going on before..it's moar recent devaluation and rebound-that it has now eclipsed >>147646 lb btw'''
Largest amount today-10 year Note 'auctioned' on August 15th 2022-$6.885B
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2022/R_20220810_2.pdf
2nd largest amount today-3 year Note and same issue date as 10 year-$4.769B
https://treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2022/R_20220809_2.pdf
These are all the Primary Dealers-cap #2 and since HSBC (who was never taken off that list with the recently removed Cease and Desist action from 2012) has nuffin to be 'critisized for' any longer becasue without ANY reason given they decided to remove that just prior to the NOT return of QE next week: >>147684, >>147685 Federal Reserve Board announces termination of enforcement action with HSBC Holdings plc-no reason given-let us not ferget the Comey was placed on the BoD at HSBC AFTER this was implemented/announced
why doesn't this surprise me?
guess I missed that during the normal looksey-ty fer sharing that.
wow
Mr. 'Password' hisself
back later
I wish!
couldn't eben do that back in the day if I tried
Not that it was something I would mind you-sorta between the stoners and punk crowd
certainly not that at all
it was fun to watch someone create future back problems d'oh
kek
ttyl
Planefag:CONUS update-ELVIS33 USAF C-17 Globemaster returning to Memphis Int'l after being at Elmendorf (Anchorage, AK) since 0830 >>147493 pb dis the one with the 4 yr deltas and someone mebby 'coming back'-some snowden (2) deltas on Tuesday, United Arab Emirates AF UAF1230 C-17 back at Dulles Int'l from it's Amarillo, TX ground stop of about 2h45m, VENUS95 USAF C-32A departed Majors Airport after extensive stay for upgrades and will be put back into service-that's two high-level ACs today that are back at JBA after major service/upgrades SAM959 >>147749 and dis one VENUS95 (Tail#09-0015), FOX321 USMC Beech 200 Super King Air went back to origin of MCAS Beaufort earlier today