tyb
I'll watch for a few hours
SAM956 USAF C-40B ne from a Birmingham Int'l Airport ground stop
>>82573 pb
ORDER66 USAF E-4B Nightwatch on ground at Lincoln Muni, NE from Dyess departure
Indian AF IFC4W21 C-17 Globemaster on approach for JBA from RAF Brize Norton departure earlier today
I'm here so can do for a bit
Heading Into Jackson Hole With Record Duration Risk
One look at the markets today, with the S&P making a new all time high and Europe enjoying a 10 consecutive day stretch of records - the longest since 1999-y'all know wut habbened after dat-and it is abundantly clear that complacency reigns and nobody has a concern in the world. After all, why worry - the Fed will never again allow even a 5% drop in "markets."
But not everyone is convinced that they should put their entire retirement account in deep out of the money S&P call options. One is Goldman, which last weekend warned that "the ante will be upped when taper begins", leading to an adverse market outcome. Another is Bank of America whose chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian today published a note warning that the duration risk heading into Jackson Hole, where the taper announcement is likely to be made, is at an all time high.
So while there is good news - with forward S&P 500 EPS tracking +27% YTD , and the 10-yr yield dropping 40bps since March’s peak, pushing the ratio of S&P dividend yield vs. the 10-yr yield back up to 0.95x, its highest level since February and back in-line with the post-GFC average - risks loom ahead: for one, earnings growth is sharply moderating in 2H amid inflation and a slowing economy, plus "record equity duration pointing to painful downside if rates move even modestly higher." In fact, as Subramanian admits, "the market today is statistically expensive on almost every measure of the 20 metrics we track, except on growth and relative to bonds."
So back to the Taper: how does BofA quantify the risk from the upcoming Fed slowdown in TSY and RMBS purchases?
As Subramanian notes, more Fed officials are urging tapering, and implied volatility picked up after Friday’s strong jobs report as investors await commentary from the Jackson Hole conference (Aug. 26-28) and FOMC meeting (Sept. 22). In this context, the bank's Fair Value stress test suggests that every 1bp change in real risk-free rate or ERP would translate to a 20-30bp move in the S&P 500.
So unlike other banks who have rushed to hike their S&P forecasts as the market has ground higher, BofA remains a lone bear, and its house view of 1.9% on the 10-yr yield by year-end (up +55bps from today) would translate into a ~15% price drop in the S&P 500. While that may not sound huge, considering the amount of margin leverage and negative gamma in the system, a 15% drop would likely certainly feel like a major crash to most margined market participants.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/heading-jackson-hole-record-duration-risk
14 USAF T-1A Jayhawks (CONGOs) heading west out of the coming storms way -departed NAS Pensacola and heading for Houston
3 USAF C-130 Hercules nw from Eglin AFB as well.
Will see moar of this today and tomorrow.
#512
>>82608, >>82610 The Professor's Record: A collection of reference information for patriots for election integrity.-soc. media and .pdfs
>>82613, >>82614, >>82615, >>82617, >>82618, >>82621, >>82625 Tucker-Erik Prince/Botus/Saigon/Afghanistan-y/t Betsy DeVos Erik Prince > POTUS + Q drops re: Eric Prince and DynCorp/Blackwater switch out
>>82619 War Room Warning: Federal Agencies Have Successfully Infiltrated Mike Lindell’s “Inner-Circle”-rumble link (not displaying correct vid but has linky for article at bottom)
>>82624, >>82638, >>82639 a reminder: Keshel's vid is just an up-close look at voting patterns in Mesa Co and how the 2020 results didn't make sense given previous trends
>>82626 Erik Prince Makes Ominous Prediction About What’s Coming On 9/11-Bannons War Room-mp4
>>82628 Seth Keshel-đź’Ą FINAL LIST OF STATE CHATS đź’Ą-forwarded from America First Audit Channel-soc. media
>>82630, >>82636, >>82548 pb Haiti Earthquake 7.2m-moar on detail on that
>>82631 Seth Keshel-"Defend Florida is compiling evidence of cheating and is taking it to the next step by proposing this to the FL legislature:...."-soc media
>>82632 Rep. Lee Zeldin on State of Governor's Race in New York: Democrats in New York Facing 'Identity Crisis'-townhall.com
>>82633 moar on dat DHS BS from yesterday-soc. media
>>82634 CM telegram:on Griswold and Peters Co. fuckery re: election cameras being turned off
>>82637 telling ya what they are gonna do news: Heading Into Jackson Hole With Record Duration Risk-zh
wut I have so far.
additions or renames needed let me know
Livin' in a bowling alley-hope you all don't get hammered.
>is there a baker?
took from frb so you and I it for nao unless frbs back
If you are gonna be here go ahead.
Gonna eat something and then habs some stuff to do here for a while.
ORDER66 USAF E-4B Nightwatch departed Lincoln Muni, NE after a ground stop-most likely going to Wright-Patterson AFB Dayton
Departed from Dyess earlier today
Soros Liquidates Archegos Stocks After Losing Millions
Back in late March, when a handful of enterprising Prime Brokers decided to quickly liquidate their exposure to the now infamous Archegos, realizing that they have to be the first to do so or suffer billions in losses (as Credit Suisse and Nomura learned the hard way), the banks were furiously dialing some of their best hedge fund clients hoping to find willing buyers as they were liquidating billions in so-called "Archegos stocks." They found one such gullible buyer in Soros Fund Management, the investment firm of the well-known Democratic billionaire currently run by Chief Investment Officer Dawn Fitzpatrick, which we as reported three months ago had purchased $375 million of the shares that PBs were scrambling to offload, with Soros reporting that as of March 31 - one day after the Archegos liquidation began in earnest - it had built up the following stakes:
*ViacomCBS $194.3MM (4.31MM shares)
*Baidu $77MM (353.8K shares)
*Tencent $46.4MM (1.55MM shares)
*Discovery Class C $14.8MM (400K shares)
*Discovery Class A $8.7MM (200K shares)
A look at the prior 13F shows that the fund did not own any of these stocks before the end of the first quarter.
Was there any fundamental, value-driven insight behind this rushed purchase by Soros' minions, which even the PBs advised their clients was the result of a liquidating counterparty? We now know that the answer is no, and instead Soros was buying up the Archegos shares simply in hopes of then dumping its holdings to an even greater fool if and when the price rebounded. We know this because it failed to find such a greater fool as the price of Archegos shares failed to rise in the subsequent three months and according to the latest Soros 13F, the hedge fund has now liquidated all of its Archegos holdings.
As shown in cap#2, the five Archegos stocks which Soros had rushed to buy in Q1 were no longer listed in the hedge fund's 13F as of June 30, meaning that Soros dumped all 194.3 million of ViacomCBS, $77 million of Baidu and $46.4 million of stock in Vipshop shares, while also liquidating its $33.8 million and $23.5 million positions in Tencent Music and Discovery, respectively. So why did Soros dump its holdings? Simple: the fund was betting on a quick rebound once the liquidation selling pressure ended - at which point greater fools would come out and Buy the Fucking Dip - but instead all of the Archegos-linked stocks extended their slide in the second quarter. Vipshop plunged 33% in the three months through June, Tencent Music tumbled about 24%, Discovery dropped about 21% and Baidu fell 6.3%. As a result, Soros incurred millions on losses on what it hoped would be a quick turnaround trade.
Previously, Coros CIO Dawn Fitzpatrick had said she’s willing to jump on dislocations in the market and “not just double down but triple down when the facts and circumstances support that.” But not in this case, when it turned out that Soros was the final fool in that particular liquidation chain. But don't feel too bad for the fund: in its 13F it reported that its total long US equities had risen to just under $ 6 billion, up $600 million in the quarter, even though a sizable chunk of these was in the form of call and put notional equivalent, including some $153 million in SPY puts. As for Hwang, who lost $20 billion as quietly as he had made it - if much more quickly - we reported that the former Tiger Asia boss was just as quietly plotting his return to Total Return swap glory from the sleepy New Jersey suburb on Tenafly, even as Archegos's bankers are scrambling to uncover if Hwang has any outside wealth that they can claw back to offset their losses.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/soros-liquidates-archegos-stocks-after-losing-millions