dChan - Q Origins Project Archive

Improving Decision Making in the Area of National and International Security- the Future Map Methodology Don Heathfield The Future Map

According to Fuerth, “we have entered the period when the problems we face are themselves networked: Information about them is marked by complex interaction, and organization for dealing with them must become flattened and integrated. The expertise required to track these problems has broadened.”[Fuerth, 2006.] To achieve success, the complexity of the organization’s decision-making system must be, using the words of Yaneer Bar-Yam, “correctly matched to its environment” [Bar-Yam, 2004.] In this complex environment the ability of organizations to shorten the time between the recognition of warning signals and the implementation of decisions is critical. Success depends on how fast the whole organization can see the “big picture” and learn to change its ways of working. Organizations need a rigorous “future preparedness” process that would drive their collective learning about the behavior of the complex systems around them. In practice, they should focus on the following strategies: • Develop, in absence of reliable environmental models, the ability to learn about the behavior of the “target” systems using a “forced learning” method based on trial and error: proactively anticipate changes, comparing as many perspectives as possible, while being ready to question their assumptions and adjust the picture of their future environment as changes occur. • Improve their capacity to meet unanticipated challenges faster and more effectively: quickly share the “big picture” of changes and challenges across the organization, accelerate adaptive learning processes, mobilize commitment, drive and measure their progress towards the new objectives. Both strategies require the creation of the “working picture” of the future that can be shared, debated, and contributed to by many actors across the organization, as well as the dynamic scorecard of the organization’s performance in relation to its future challenges.

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