Goldman Warns "Real Concerns Are Emerging" About The Dollar As Reserve Currency; Goes "All In" Gold
In his morning critique of goldbugs' resurgent optimism about the future of gold, which has exploded alongside the price of precious metals, which in turn have been tracking the real 10Y rate tick for tick…
… Rabobank's Michael Every argued from the familiar position of one who views the modern monetary system as immutable, and bounded by the confines of the dollar as a reserve currency and financial assets as a bedrock of modern household wealth, of which as Paul Tudor Jones recently calculated there is over $300 trillion worth, compared to just $10 trillion in total gold value.
Indeed, according to Every, the surge in gold is meaningless because "if you buy gold, technically that is going to make you money. And yet that money is still going to be priced in US DOLLARS – and that gives the whole game away."
Like fans of the England football team, gold fans can dream of the distant past when gold was the centre of the global monetary system; but they can keep dreaming if they think those days are ever going to return. Gold may be an appreciating asset, but all the evidence suggests that it won’t be one that is of any direct relevance to day-to-day life, finance, and business. Your currency won’t be tied to it. You won’t get paid in it. You won’t spend in it or save in it (other than to the switch back to US Dollars). You won’t be doing deals in it or importing in it."
Yes but… what if your currency ends up getting tied to it? What if you do get paid in gold? What if you save in gold without any intention of switching back to dollars?
In short, what if the dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency?
Impossible you say… well, we would disagree. After all, in a world where there is over $100 trillion in dollar-denominated debt which can not be defaulted on and thus must be inflated away, the "exorbitant privilege" of the dollar has become a handicap. But don't take our word: here is Jared Bernstein, Obama's former chief economist warning all the way back in 2014 in a NYT op-ed that the US Dollar must lose its reserve status:
There are few truisms about the world economy, but for decades, one has been the role of the United States dollar as the world’s reserve currency. It’s a core principle of American economic policy. After all, who wouldn’t want their currency to be the one that foreign banks and governments want to hold in reserve?
But new research reveals that what was once a privilege is now a burden, undermining job growth, pumping up budget and trade deficits and inflating financial bubbles. To get the American economy on track, the government needs to drop its commitment to maintaining the dollar’s reserve-currency status.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-warns-real-concerns-are-emerging-about-dollar-reserve-currency-goes-all-gold