>>10319866
>>10319946
To expand a bit, back in 2013, when bitcoin really began to capture headlines, I did some rough calculations based on the total number of bitcoins that could exist and market capitalization figures.
I came up with a very rough (and certainly flawed) estimate that each whole bitcoin could hold around seven million dollars of purchasing power if it were to account for just 10% of all market capitalization in the United States.
So, from an investment standpoint, if bitcoin does become a currency standard, we are nowhere near what their actual exchange standard represents and the extreme potential that bitcoin value represents serves as a barrier to it ever being used as a currency.
Back when bitcoin was first created and had a small community supporting it - people were offering goods and services for 5, 25, 200 bitcoins - back when each bitcoin was trading for less than a dollar and no one really knew what would be coming of it.
The idea of paying 5 bitcoins for something, today, is absolutely absurd unless it is factory equipment or something.
Thus, if we truly believe it is the currency of the future and will absorb a significant part of currency transactions - the value I can get from a single bitcoin is possibly 1/1000th of what it would be worth as an official currency… so why would I spend it, now?
On the other hand - if no one spends them, then there can't be a price discovery mechanism, as you pointed out.
What I suspect will happen in practice is that as the state currencies inflate into oblivion, corporate monetary transactions will seek out cryptos as a means of securing their finances and operate in place of treasury bonds and futures trading (that is another thing that's about to get absolutely hammered - the futures market, which is occupying the role of what is historically held by bank deposits).
Few of these will be used as a citizen currency standard until after state currencies have almost completely collapsed or reverted back to metal standards. It may also be the case that individual citizens almost never really get involved in the crypto market, directly - with banks or governments serving as an arbitration layer between the crypto market and the average citizen market.