Economic consequences of Corona lockdown cause more deaths in India than Corona itself
Example Uttar Pradesh: Per 1000 inhabitants there were 0.16 Covid-19 deaths, compared to 3.41 economically induced deaths".
Desperation over his economic situation drove Ompal S. to his death. The relatives of the 55-year-old sugar cane farmer report that he could not get rid of his harvest because the local sugar factory no longer accepted the raw material due to a lockdown.
The father of five therefore decided to commit suicide - and triggered a wave of protests in his homeland, India's most populous state of Uttar Pradesh, by farmers who felt abandoned in the face of the corona crisis.
The prominent opposition politician Priyanka Gandhi indirectly blamed the government for the death: she accused the authorities of ignoring the problems of the farmers.
The incident shows how much the severe economic downturn that hit India as a result of the Corona crisis is shaking the country even far away from the virus hotspots. Loss of income and rising unemployment are driving millions of people below the poverty line - with serious consequences for food and health care.
The development is highly dangerous from the point of view of economists: they warn that the economic consequences of the corona crisis could lead to more deaths than infection with the sars-CoV-2 virus.
Around three million people infected
Officially, India has so far reported three million cases of infection and 55,000 corona deaths. Economists at the State Bank of India, the country's largest credit institution, point out in a new study that the economic sacrifices are, however, significantly increasing the mortality rate.
They have calculated how many more people die when economic output falls by ten percent compared to normal times. They describe their findings as worrying in their recently published report.
For the state of Maharashtra, where the financial metropolis of Mumbai is located and which experienced a particularly strong Covid 19 outbreak, they currently assume 0.34 Covid 19 deaths per 1000 inhabitants. At the same time there would be 1.28 additional deaths due to the economic slump, the study says.
In poorer states such as Uttar Pradesh, the ratio is even more extreme according to the economists: 0.16 covid-19 deaths would be statistically equivalent to 3.41 economically induced deaths - again per 1000 inhabitants.
Economist Deepa Mani and her colleague Shashwat Alok from the Indian School of Business had already warned the government in May about economic fatalities: They estimated that a five percent decline in economic output would lead to 47,000 to 62,000 additional deaths in India. According to their model, a 30 percent slump would result in 330,000 to 430,000 deaths.
Their calculations are based on the decline in the mortality rate that has been observed in India in recent decades as the economy has grown. In times of economic downturn, however, it is not only economically motivated suicides that drive mortality upwards. Increased deaths from diseases such as tuberculosis and higher child mortality are also directly related to rising poverty.
Mani and Alok are aware of the limitations of their model and the difficulty of comparing it with Covid-19 deaths. They refer among other things to the number of unreported cases in Indian statistics. From the point of view of independent observers, the number of people who have died from the coronavirus could be significantly higher than officially reported.
However, the basic argument of the economists remains unaffected: In an essay they point out that the idea of first saving people from Covid-19 death and in a second step saving the economy does not work. Rather, the government must keep the pandemic and economic development in mind at the same time in order to save as many lives as possible. "We need a data-driven approach to protect both human lives and the economy at the same time," they demanded.
India could soon overtake Brazil
But at present India does not seem to be able to do either: The number of Covid-19 infections has recently increased by around 70,000 per day - the virus is thus spreading faster than anywhere else in the world. A flattening of the curve is currently not in sight.