Model says Trump wins if Dow hits 28,053 — and it just passed that

Now, we know why Trump is cheering on the stock market with greater gusto. There’s an election model, updated for the 2020 contest, that suggests the president will likely be reelected if the Dow Jones gets above 28,052 on Election Day. The Socionomics Institute told us that Trump has an 87% chance of reelection if the market reaches that level. It was at 29,500 when the coronavirus crisis hit, which slammed it back to 18,591 on March 23. It has been hovering just shy of 28,000 this month and passed 28,500 today.

The institute has studied all presidential races in which an incumbent was running for reelection and found that the net change in the market for the three years leading up to the election “has the strongest correlation with incumbents’ margins of victory or defeat.” As for Joe Biden’s chances, a spokesman for the institute told us that he “will be a mild favorite to win if the Dow is below 23,377, and he will be a strong favorite if the market is below 22,208.”

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/model-says-trump-wins-if-dow-hits-28-053-and-it-just-passed-that