The Color Revolution Model: An Expose of the Core Mechanics
Purpose:
Color Revolutions are one of the newest models of state destabilization. They allow external actors to plead plausible deniability when accused of illegally interfering in the domestic affairs of a sovereign state, and their mass mobilization of ‘people power’ renders them highly effective in the eyes of the global media. Additionally, the conglomeration of large numbers of civilians protesting the government also increases pressure on that said government and limits its options in effectively dealing with the ongoing destabilization. All Color Revolutions closely follow the same template, and understanding the nature of this applied tactic of destabilization will allow states to craft suitable countermeasures against it.
I Model
Color Revolutions are formed through a complex interaction of many factors, however, they can be subdivided into several primary infrastructural categories:
Ideology
Finance
Social
Training
Information
Media
These factors interact with one another in a specific way in a five-tiered hierarchy:
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The interplay of the above factors creates a Movement (m) that combines with two other variables in order to produce a Color Revolution:
‘The Event’ (e)
Physical Infrastructure (p)
The resultant formula for a Color Revolution (R) is as follows:
m + e + p = R
The following chapters of the exposition will definitely detail what these variables are, as well as explain the interaction between them.
II Description of Variables
This section will detail the specific contributing factors that define each of the variables.
Ideology
Ideology is the central focus of any change within the world, and it is the guiding idea that motivates all of the other factors affecting a Color Revolution. Without ideology, everything that follows is empty and devoid of meaning and purpose. The traditional ideology motivating all Color Revolutions is Liberal Democracy, and it seeks to ‘free’ targeted states from perceived anti-Liberal Democratic (non-Western) governments.
Liberal Democracy, in its current post-modern manifestation, is expansionist and aggressive. It is not content with alternative ideological and value systems and must steamroll over them in its pursuit of global dominance. Besides waging direct war against societies resisting its advance (i.e. Serbia, Libya), Liberal Democratic states (the West) have learned to pursue other methods of defeating targeted states. These methods are less direct that outright war, but no less efficient. The ideological penetration of a society eventually embodies itself in a physical outburst inside the state itself, guided by a segment of the state’s own citizenry. The state (and society as a whole) must combat a part of itself that is ‘rising up’ against the status quo, leading to a conflict of interest and a social civil war. Depending upon the level of provocation that the pro-Liberal Democratic protesters initiate, as well as instances of mismanagement by the state in dealing with this social uprising, the social civil war may eventually turn violent and briefly resemble an actual civil war. This is especially so if the protesters have been armed by forces outside of the country, and if they decide to attack the security services tasked with dispersing the Color Revolution’s physical manifestations.
Ideology is thus the initiator of all Color Revolutions. It presents an opposite form of development for a domestic society, and it motivates sympathetic segments of the population to engage in tangible demonstrations to demand change. It will later be seen that the vast majority of these active protesters may not even be aware that their activities are being orchestrated by a higher power (NGO, foreign government). Rather, most of them, as a result of a heavy-handed information campaign promoting the destabilizing ideology, have truly been led to believe that their actions are spontaneous and ‘natural’, and that they represent the inevitable ‘progress’ that all areas of the world are bound to experience sooner or later. The ideology of the individual over the collective (the social aspect of Liberal-Democracy) empowers each and every protester to feel that they are making a unique and significant impact in bringing about this change.