California GOP is nearly No. 2 again among registered voters — but news isn’t all good

After an embarrassing two years as California’s third-largest “party,” Republicans are only about 10,000 voters short of moving back into second place, according to voter registration figures released by the secretary of state.

The GOP might want to hold off on the Champagne, however. While Republicans have closed the gap with no party preference voters, that’s probably because tens of thousands of those formerly independent voters have decided to register as Democrats in advance of the November presidential election.

While it’s hard to say exactly why the number of independent voters has dropped for the first time in years, the prospect of a presidential election fought out daily in newspapers, on television and in social media tends to make everyone more partisan, said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data, which provides voter information to political groups.

“There’s just so much going on,” he said. “But it’s a dip that will probably be fleeting.”

Temporary or not, the drop in no party preference voters is clear. While statewide registration rose by 261,000 voters between Feb. 18, the last registration report before the March primary, and the latest July 3 number, there were 152,000 fewer voters registered as nonpartisan. Their share of the electorate dropped from 25.1% to 24%.

But Republicans added just 80,000 new voters, with their percentage ticking up from 23.9% to 24%.

The Democrats were the big winners, registering 330,000 additional voters, more than four times as many as the Republicans. The party now represents 46% of the state’s voters, up from 45% in February.

“Since more than half of California’s new voters now are registering as Democrats, their numbers are going to be rising,” Mitchell said.

Republican registration has been falling in California for decades. From 39% in 1990, the GOP numbers dropped to 35% in 2000, 31% in 2010 and 24% in the latest report. The Democratic share has also dropped in the last 30 years, but not nearly as much — from just short of 50% in 1990 to 46% today.

The real growth in those years was among voters registering without a political party. In June 2018, they passed the Republican Party in numbers and have stayed ahead ever since.

Regardless of what party they choose — or don’t choose — California residents are registering in record numbers. While the 20.9 million voters is a record for the state and nearly 3 million more than in 2016, it’s the registration percentage that’s eye-popping, said Mitchell of Political Data.

Typically, as more people become eligible to vote, the percentage of registered voters drops. But despite California’s growing population, 83.5% of the state’s eligible voters are registered.

“That’s the highest registration percentage since (California) women were given the right to vote” in 1911, Mitchell said.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-GOP-is-nearly-No-2-again-among-15557207.php