T-51:12:39
NORTH CAROLINA: To make sure your Ballot COUNTS, sign & send it in EARLY. When Polls open, go to your Polling Place to see if it was COUNTED. IF NOT, VOTE! Your signed Ballot will not count because your vote has been posted. Don’t let them illegally take your vote away from you!
This also refrains the tweet from being liked or re-tweeted JSYK
NOTABLE
>Transition Integrity Project
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/read-the-transition-integrity-projects-full-report/ar-BB17x0w3
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7013152/Preventing-a-Disrupted-Presidential-Election-and.pdf
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7013152/Preventing-a-Disrupted-Presidential-Election-and.txt
• The concept of “election night,” is no longer accurate and indeed is dangerous. We face a period of contestation stretching from the first day a ballot is cast in mid-September until January
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The winner may not, and we assess likely will not, be known on “election night” as officials
count mail-in ballots. This period of uncertainty provides opportunities for an unscrupulous candidate to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the process and to set up an unprecedented assault on the
outcome. Campaigns, parties, the press and the public must be educated to adjust expectations
starting immediately.
• A determined campaign has opportunity to contest the election into January 2021. We anticipate lawsuits, divergent media narratives, attempts to stop the counting of ballots, and protests
drawing people from both sides. President Trump, the incumbent, will very likely use the executive branch to aid his campaign strategy, including through the Department of Justice. We assess
that there is a chance the president will attempt to convince legislatures and/or governors to take
actions – including illegal actions – to defy the popular vote. Federal laws provide little guidance
for how Congress should resolve irregularities when they convene in a Joint Session on January
6, 2021. Of particular concern is how the military would respond in the context of uncertain election results. Here recent evidence offers some reassurance, but it is inconclusive.
• The administrative transition process itself may be highly disrupted. Participants in our exercises of all backgrounds and ideologies believed that Trump would prioritize personal gain and
self-protection over ensuring an orderly administrative handoff to his successor. Trump may use
pardons to thwart future criminal prosecution, arrange business deals with foreign governments
that benefit him financially, attempt to bribe and silence associates, declassify sensitive documents, and attempt to divert federal funds to his own businesses.
• Plan for a contested election. If there is a crisis, events will unfold quickly, and sleep-deprived
leaders will be asked to make consequential decisions quickly. Thinking through options now will
help to ensure better decisions. Approach this as a political battle, not just a legal battle. In the
event of electoral contestation, sustained political mobilization will likely be crucial for ensuring
transition integrity. Dedicated staff and resources need to be in place at least through the end of
January.
• Focus on readiness in the states, providing political support for a complete and accurate count.
Governors, Secretaries of State, Attorneys General and Legislatures can communicate and reinforce laws and norms and be ready to confront irregularities. Election officials will need political
and public support to see the process through to completion.
• Address the two biggest threats head on: lies about “voter fraud” and escalating violence. Voting fraud is virtually non-existent, but Trump lies about it to create a narrative designed to politically mobilize his base and to create the basis for contesting the results should he lose. The potential for violent conflict is high, particularly since Trump encourages his supporters to take up
arms.
• Anticipate a rocky administrative transition. Transition teams will likely need to do two things
simultaneously: defend against Trump’s reckless actions on his way out of office; and find creative solutions to ensure landing teams are able to access the information and resources they need
to begin to prepare for governing.
During the exercises, Team Biden and Democratic elected officials took the following steps:
• Organizing 1,000 “influencers” to denounce efforts to steal the election.
• Organizing all living presidents to stand with Biden and denounce Trump administration efforts
to subvert the democratic process.
• Recruiting moderate Republican Governors such as Baker (MA) and Hogan (MD) to form an
“Election Protection” Coalition.
• Working with local Democratic elected officials to call on the Adjutant General of the National
Guard, along with representatives from the technology sector, to monitor vote counting.
• Organizing a bipartisan “National Day for Restoration of Democracy” and a “National Day of
Unity,” both including faith leaders.
• Attempting a capital strike and a work stoppage as part of an overall effort to push corporate
leaders to insist that all ballots to be counted.
During TIP’s exercises, these moves had limited ability to stop Team Trump’s push to discredit or contest
the results. The one exception was in the scenario, described in more detail later, where Biden won the
popular vote by a large margin but still lost the electoral college, and the response was aggressive and coordinated. Team Trump was consistently more ruthless than Team Biden – more willing to ignore existing democratic norms, to make use of disinformation, to deploy federal agencies to promote Trump’s personal and electoral interests, and to engage in intimidation campaigns. Team Biden generally felt constrained by a commitment to norms and a desire to tamp down violence and reduce instability.
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Trump is likely to prioritize his personal interests in the transition period.
TIP constructed scenarios intended to illuminate issues in the transition period, but during the exercise,
the active teams spent most of their time contesting the election results. As a result, the insights on the
formal transition are somewhat limited. Nevertheless, a few themes emerged:
• Take the money and run. Participants in the scenario exercises universally believed that selfpreservation for President Trump and his family will be Trump’s first and possibly only priority if
he is forced to concede electoral defeat. Before he leaves office he might maximize the flow of
federal money into Trump businesses (moves played: direct COVID-19 relief package for Trump
hotels; relocate to Mar-a-Lago for the final months of his presidency); negotiate business deals
with foreign countries; and purge documents that might incriminate foreign governments and
business partners (for example, documents related to Jamal Khashoggi’s murder). President
Trump could also launch his next business venture from the White House (speculations include
“MAGA TV,” possibly headed by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner).
Appendix C: Will “Trumpism” Survive a Trump Loss?
While it was not squarely in the scope of TIP’s investigation, almost all of the debriefings included some
discussion about whether “Trumpism” is likely to survive Trump after he leaves office. President Trump
has cultivated and mobilized a significant base; many believe it won’t easily be demobilized after Trump
leaves office (“Trumpiness is built in now,” said one participant). There are immediate implications for an
incoming Administration.
Many observers expect President Trump to try to extend his norm-disrupting influence after he leaves office through an independent media company or partnerships. Participants predict that in the event of a
Biden victory, Trump will attack President Biden early and consistently, blaming all problems in the
country on a combination of the stolen election and the incompetence of the Biden administration; the
message will be clear, consistent, and relentlessly hammered in: “If only the election hadn’t been stolen
from me, everything in the country would be great again.” Such a message could fuel political violence.
QAnon could play a role in electing far-right candidates to Congress, providing an anchor for ex-President Trump’s proposals.
A minority view was that once Trump is a “big loser,” he’ll lose face with the GOP base and Republicans
will move on. If he tries to look like a martyr, these participants suggest, he may come across as merely
pathetic. However, if the pandemic and the economy continue to get worse after the 2020 election, it may
become more likely that Trump (or a Trump-like figure) will again be a serious contender for the presidency in 2024.
How should anti-authoritarian interests respond? A number of participants urged Democrats to embrace a
new playbook. President Obama’s working assumption was that “the fever would break on the back of
electoral defeat,” but this proved to be mistaken; throughout the Obama administration, Republicans refused to compromise or engage in customary negotiations over policy, counting instead on blocking every
possible Democratic initiative and waiting for their chance to regain the presidency. These participants
cautioned that Democrats should not rely on litigation, moral suasion, or merely hoping that Republicans
in Congress or state elected office will “come to their senses.” Instead, they should focus on building
more authentic relationships with the left’s base, including by publicly supporting the peaceful protest
movement that has emerged since late May, rather than continuing to seek conciliation and compromise
with the GOP.
There was near universal agreement that in the event of a Trump loss, the GOP’s strategy will be to create
trouble for the incoming Biden administration, in order to regain ground in 2022 and retake the White
House in 2024. GOP activists (possibly encouraged by Trump himself and by far-right media) may seek
to create ongoing street-level chaos and conflict. Meanwhile, GOP party leaders will likely focus on postcensus redistricting. Senate Republicans are also likely to try to block one or more Biden cabinet or court
nominees as a show of political nerve. If the GOP holds the Senate, even more dramatic blocking actions
will be contemplated, tempting the Biden Administration to continue President Trump’s approach of appointing “acting” appointees, thus institutionalizing the nullification of the “advise and consent” role of
the Senate in executive branch appointments.
Republicans will likely also push hard on judicial nominations, trying to seat as many nominees as possible before President Trump leaves office. This could potentially include a Supreme Court nomination,
which would further undermine the legitimacy of the Court in the eyes of many Democrats and heighten
demands from the left for “court packing.” Conversely, it is also possible that if the GOP holds the Senate, Majority Leader McConnell could refuse to hold any votes on any Biden court nominees, allowing
the vacancies to pile up until a Republican president is again in place to make the appointments.
It's the Plan from Room 7 I'm more worried about.
Game Four: Narrow Biden Win
The final scenario explored a narrow Biden win where he leads with less than 1% of the popular vote the
day after the election, and is predicted to win 278 electoral votes. Fox News is among the major networks
that called the election for Biden, though the Trump campaign does not concede, setting up an intense
competition that concludes with an uneasy and combative but ultimately successful transition.
Turn One:
• The Trump Campaign began the game by encouraging the state legislatures in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan to certify a separate slate of electors in support of President Trump. Despite
opposition from the Biden Campaign and Democrats, both Michigan’s and Pennsylvania’s legislatures agree to send two sets of electors in support of Trump.
• The Trump Campaign engaged in a large and coordinated disinformation campaign primarily focused on the legitimacy of the mail-in ballots. This campaign used the media to amplify “stolen
election” and “voter fraud” narratives, and launched noisy DoJ investigation into voter fraud. Attorney General Barr also took action to stop ballot counting. Trump Campaign surrogates released
false information that Joe Biden had suffered a heart-attack in an attempt to undermine perceptions of Biden’s fitness to hold office. The Biden Campaign quickly dispelled this information,
but Facebook kept posts about the heart-attack up.
• Despite all of these moves during the first week after the election, dice rolls confirmed that the
Biden Campaign maintained a narrow lead.
• The Trump Campaign understood that its most effective strategy was not just to create more
doubt about the validity of votes for Biden, but also to sew more chaos and disruption so that
President Trump could position himself as the only one capable of ensuring law and order. The
Trump Campaign stoked chaos and mayhem by urging local police forces to break up Black
Lives Matter and pro-Biden demonstrations and encouraging Alt Right / Boogaloo supporters to
confront liberal protestors.
Game Three: Clear Trump Win
The third scenario posited a comfortable Electoral College victory for President Trump — 286-252 — but
also a significant popular vote win—52% - 47%–for former Vice President Biden. The game play ended
in a constitutional crisis, with threats of secession, and the potential for either a decline into authoritarianism or a radically revamped set of democratic rules that ensure the popular will prevails (abolishment of
the Electoral College, making DC and Puerto Rico states, and other changes). Key moves and actions include:
Turn One
• The Trump Campaign had two main objectives at the outset of the scenario. The first priority was
to legitimize the Electoral College results by pushing narratives that cast doubt on former Vice
President Biden’s popular vote victory and portraying wide-spread protests of President Trump as
anti-American, undemocratic, and promoting mob rule. The Trump Campaign planted agent provocateurs into the protests throughout the country to ensure these protests turned violent and
helped further the narrative of a violent insurrection against a lawfully elected president.
• The second Trump Campaign priority was to consolidate power to reduce or eliminate the “Deep
State” and broader institutional resistance to President Trump’s agenda for his second term. Specific measures included selective promotions of military personnel with “pro-American views”,
rushing judicial nominations, increasing financial incentives to big business, and working with
states to maximize GOP control through redistricting.
• The GOP Elected Officials team was supportive of Trump’s efforts to crack down on protests.
Establishing “law and order” and defeating the “anarchists” was a unifying call. But they pressed
President Trump to “slow down” on the campaign’s more aggressive and overt efforts to consolidate power, partly out of concern that they would lose the support of moderate Democrats needed
to publicly declare Trump’s victory legitimate.
• The most consequential action of the first turn was the Biden Campaign’s retraction of its election
night concession. It capitalized on the public’s outrage that for the third time in 20 years a candidate lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College. They also capitalized on concern about
widespread voter suppression before and on Election Day. The Biden Campaign began the game by encouraging three states with Democratic governors—North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Michigan—to ask for recounts. As the game developed, governors in two of the three (Wisconsin and
Michigan) sent separate slates of electors to counter those sent by the state legislature.
• The GOP failed to convince moderate Democrats in the House to break ranks with the Democratic resistance and support Trump’s electoral victory, much to the GOP’s surprise. Part of the
strategy here was to attack the Electoral College and to claim that the certified popular votes in
these states were questionable because of voter suppression.
• At the end of the first turn, the country was in the midst of a full-blown constitutional crisis characterized by: 1) Political chaos; 2) Widespread threats of violence, and sporadic actual violence in
the streets; and 4) A hostile, dangerous, highly-partisan, and frequently unconstrained information
and media environment.
The Plan from Room 7.
All addresses of R electees will be passed to Antifa along with campaign addresses and locations of MAGA meets etc.
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7013152/Preventing-a-Disrupted-Presidential-Election-and.pdf
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7013152/Preventing-a-Disrupted-Presidential-Election-and.pdf