>>11063089

Tasmanian government investigating how alleged pedophile James Griffin went undetected

Alleged pedophile paediatric nurse James Griffin has been condemned by the Premier who supported the Health Minister's calls for another investigation into how the abuse went undetected for 28 years.

When asked whether a formal inquiry would be forthcoming Premier Peter Gutwein said, "further steps will be considered in due course, following the completion of the review".

Health Minister Sarah Courtney labelled the allegations "absolutely appalling" and said she was disturbed by them.

When Griffin was charged in October 2019 the Tasmanian Health Service stood him down and Ms Courtney said "an investigation was then undertaken".

"We are making sure that this matter is examined fully. I have asked the secretary to make sure that the matters around this both currently and historically are reexamined to ensure that Tasmanians can have confidence," Ms Courtney said.

"There is nothing more important than the safety of our children."

Ms Courtney said she had asked the health secretary to ensure the support offered to staff at the Launceston General Hospital was maximised.

"The secretary and I are committed to ensuring that these matters are taken extremely seriously," Ms Courtney said.

"Any patient or member of staff who has any concerns regarding a staff member's behaviour are encouraged to come forward, and I have been assured all matters will be properly examined and all appropriate support provided."

Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation Tasmania branch secretary Emily Shepherd said the ANMF was unaware of the allegations until after Griffin was deceased.

Ms Shepherd said the investigation was a positive step and was confident the investigation would restore the confidence of ANMF members and the public.

"The information I have from the secretary of health is there will be robust measures taken," Ms Shepherd said.

Labor spokeswoman Rebecca White said, "it is incredibly concerning that this behaviour continued for so long without it being properly investigated and this person being removed from the workplace".

National sexual assault support: 1800 RESPECT, Laurel House (03) 6334 2740 (Launceston), (03) 6431 9711 (Burnie and Devonport), Sexual Assault Support Service (SASS) on 1800 697 877.

https://www.examiner.com.au/story/6971107/investigation-but-no-inquiry-into-child-sex-allegations/

Perth 'sex ring' members 'housed with victims in government care homes'

1/2

Some of the Perth men accused of being part of a paedophile ring which targeted girls using social media met their victims when they were housed together in government care homes.

Macie* is one of about 140 teenage sexual assault victims who police say were groomed by offenders online. But, rather than being targeted over social media, she says she was forced to live with her accused abuser in a child protection home.

"They didn’t actually groom the girls on social media," she said. "They groomed them by living with them in group homes."

Now 17, Macie said she only found out that her accused abuser had a history of sexual assault allegations prior to the two living together when a Department of Communities staff member claimed another child had been raped by him.

"I didn’t really believe [he was an accused sex offender] at the start because I had formed a friendship, a relationship, with him," she said.

"I believed [the Communities staff member] because I know from my experience, no one believed me, like DCP didn't really believe me when what happened to me at 12."

Macie said she was disgusted that the department charged with protecting her knowingly put her at risk, and the police investigation that saw her alleged abuser charged with sexual offences had so far withheld that fact.

"The reason they first knew who we were was because we were in group homes with them, so yeah they might have been texting us as well, but we were also living with them," she said.

"There will be two different group homes and then one rapist would know another rapist at another home, and know a girl, and then they’d all meet up."

WA Police released details of Operation Timing Belt in August, alleging a group of men aged 18-41 used Facebook and Instagram to build relationships with their victims in a bid to "ultimately engage in sexual contact with them".

A total of 18 people, including four reportable offenders, were charged with 214 offences, with police claiming 23 of the 140 victims, aged 13-19, were victims of sexual offending.

The man accused of abusing Macie is now 19 and due to appear before court later this month to face 19 offences, including sexually penetrating a child over 13 and under 16, and indecently dealing with a child over 13 and under 16.

Danielle*, Macie’s current guardian who used to work at the residential care home where the teenagers lived, said staff at the time had brought up concerns about the pair being placed together, but "no one listened".

"I was trying to foster her at the time but I got knocked back," she said.

"I was pretty messed up in the head about it all and couldn’t stop thinking that, had she been with me, this never would have happened.

"The girls didn’t have a choice to be placed in there, and [the accused] also didn’t become sex offenders while they were in there; they were already sex offenders before they were in there and continue to sex offend."

(continued)

>>11099561

2/2

Psychologist hoped 13-year-old girl could 'manage the risk' herself

The Department of Communities knew a teenager had been accused of sexual assault before placing him in a residential care home with Macie, who had suffered sexual abuse and rape before coming into care.

Macie was 13 and her accused abuser was 15 when they were placed in the same residential care home in Perth’s east. Macie said a year later, in 2018, she was sexually abused by him.

A department psychologist expressed "concerns" about housing the two together to the workers at the home in an email on March 24, 2017.

The email, seen by WAtoday, said they hoped Macie, who had been sexually abused since she was three and raped by someone she knew at 12, would be able to "manage the risk" herself.

"My hope (sadly) is that [Macie] finds [the teenage boy] annoying and manages the risk for us," the email read.

"[Macie] and [her accused abuser] have not yet met, but I am concerned about the risk of two sexually interested teens in the home.

"My concern is not of sexual coercion between the two, but more the possibility of a mutually consensual, but illegal, sexual relationship in attempt to feel loved, important and special."

Macie said she was unaware of her accused abuser’s past at the time they were placed together and did in fact have a relationship with him when she was 13, however that relationship was not sexual.

"We dated on and off until about two years ago," she said.

"I didn’t know about his past at the time. I don’t understand why they would put a victim of a lot of sexual abuse in with a sex offender, and even if they didn’t tell me, once they knew I started dating him wouldn’t they get worried and tell me, or move one of us?"

Department of Communities deputy director general Rachael Green said the department was committed to working with police, but was unable to comment on individual matters, and on matters before the court.

"Communities acknowledges the work of WA Police on Operation Timing Belt. It is an extensive and important investigation to identify and challenge the abuse of children and young people," she said.

"Child sexual abuse is shocking and abhorrent in all its forms."

If an individual is concerned about the safety and wellbeing of children and young people, Communities encourages them to contact the Central Intake Team on 1800 273 889 or by email at cpduty@cpfs.wa.gov.au.

''*Names have been changed to protect the identities of those involved.''

https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/perth-sex-ring-members-housed-with-victims-in-government-care-homes-20201012-p564gb.html

Australian Defence Force orders ban on destruction of evidence from Afghanistan war, as inquiry into alleged war crimes nears end

The Australian Defence Force has ordered a halt on the destruction of any records relating to Australia's two-decade-long war in Afghanistan, more than four years after an inquiry commenced into allegations of war crimes by Australian special forces.

The ABC has obtained an internal Defence bulletin sent last week that places an embargo on the shredding of any records relating to ADF operations in Afghanistan between 2001 and 2015.

The bulletin states the embargo is at the direction of the "Afghanistan Inquiry Task Force".

When asked about the nature of the task force, the existence of which has not been disclosed before now, Defence responded:

"The Afghanistan Inquiry Task Force is a small temporary team established within the Australian Defence Force Headquarters. Its primary role is to prepare Defence to receive and respond to the IGADF Afghanistan Inquiry report."

The Inspector-General of the Australian Defence Force (IGADF) has been conducting a wide-ranging but highly secretive inquiry into allegations that Australian special forces committed war crimes — including the murder of civilians — in Afghanistan since early 2016.

The report, compiled by NSW Supreme Court judge and Army Reserve Major General Paul Brereton, is expected to be completed before the end of the year and is widely expected to shine a light on a number of allegedly unlawful killings by Australian SAS troopers and commandos.

Over the last three years, the ABC has reported on a number of incidents in which Australian special forces soldiers allegedly committed war crimes by killing unarmed civilians in Afghanistan.

Some incidents have already been referred to the Australian Federal Police (AFP) for investigation and possible prosecution.

After a Four Corners program aired in March showed the killing of an unarmed Afghan man by an SAS soldier, Defence Minister Linda Reynolds quickly referred the incident to the AFP and the soldier was suspended from duty.

Defence records relating to those incidents would potentially be crucial for any police investigation into alleged war crimes.

Those materials could include helmet-cam vision taken on operations, photographs, patrol reports, inquiry reports, drone vision and post-operation debriefs.

When the ABC asked Defence why it had waited four years since the commencement of the IGADF inquiry before ordering a halt to any disposal of relevant records, it replied that the embargo was standard procedure.

"In accordance with these requirements, key operational records relating to planning and conduct become eligible for destruction after 20 years," a Defence spokesperson said.

"As we approach 20 years since Australia commenced operations in Afghanistan, it is the appropriate time to implement an embargo to ensure these records are preserved.

"As required, Defence will apply an embargo to similar operational activities when they approach record management milestones."

The Australian Federal Police declined to comment, referring the ABC to the Defence Department.

The ABC has also learned that the IGADF inquiry has subpoenaed records from the Australian War Memorial (AWM) as part of its investigation into alleged war crimes.

When asked whether it would comment on the subpoena, the war memorial said: "It is not the Australian War Memorial's place to discuss matters before the Inspector-General of the Australian Defence Force."

Director for the Australian Centre for International Justice, Rawan Arraf, said the timing of the embargo on the destruction of records was concerning.

"It really does raise serious questions about whether the Defence Department has had the proper processes in place; whether it has been complying with its regulations and international guidelines on record keeping and data protection, especially where it's relevant to investigating any potential violations of international humanitarian law or the laws of armed conflict."

Ms Arraf said it was crucial that any material that could be used in potential future trials arising from the inquiry is preserved.

"It's relevant to ensuring that the records of incidents are properly recorded and protected, so that if any of these incidents actually reveal the commission of crimes, the evidence is properly stored and protected to be used in criminal prosecutions, so that it can withstand the rules and procedure of evidence in trials," she said.

"If it hasn't been properly protected, that might impact on future prosecutions, or whether there are any criminal proceedings at all if there is an absence of records, meaning impunity is further entrenched."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-16/adf-issues-embargo-on-destruction-of-afghan-war-evidence/12769318

>>11098507

>>11098719

Trump talks QAnon and Biden talks pandemic at duelling town hall QandAs

'By Matthew Knott and Farrah Tomazin - October 16, 2020

1/2

US President Donald Trump has declined to disavow the nonsensical QAnon conspiracy theory in a combative town hall performance that aired at the same time as a rival event with Democratic nominee Joe Biden in lieu of a presidential debate.

Reflecting their differing styles, Biden's town hall was a more placid affair than Trump's event in which he jousted with NBC moderator Savannah Guthrie.

The FBI has labelled QAnon - an internet-driven conspiracy that alleges a cabal of Satan-worshiping paedophiles is running a global child sex-trafficking ring - a domestic terror threat. It is popular with some Trump supporters, who believe Trump is secretly battling against the cabal.

"I know nothing about QAnon," Trump said at the town hall, aired on NBC on Friday (AEST).

"I know they're very much against paedophilia. They fight it very hard."

Trump also defended recently retweeting a post that baselessly claimed that Biden and former president Barack Obama may have killed SEAL team 6, the elite unite that assassinated Osama bin Laden, to cover up a hoax where a body double was killed instead.

"I'll put it out there. People can decide," Trump said, a statement that stunned Guthrie.

"I don't get that," Guthrie said. "You're the President. You're not like someone's crazy uncle who can just retweet whatever."

Biden and Trump were supposed to be participating in their second presidential debate but it was cancelled after Trump refused to appear virtually following his coronavirus diagnosis.

A final debate is scheduled for next Friday (AEST) in Nashville, Tennessee.

Trump declined to say when he last tested negative for coronavirus before his COVID-19 diagnosis a fortnight ago. He did not say whether he tested negative on the day of his debate with Biden as was required under the rules.

"I don’t know, I don’t even remember," Trump said.

Asked by an audience member whether contracting the virus had changed his view on the importance of wearing a mask, Trump said no, citing a figure that many people who wear masks get COVID-19.

"Wear the mask, I'm fine with it," he said.

Refusing to accept that the US has one of the highest per capita coronavirus death rates in the world, Trump said: "We’re a winner. We have done an amazing job. And it’s rounding the corner. And we have the vaccines coming and we have the therapies coming."

The US currently has the eighth highest per capita coronavirus death rate in the world, and while several vaccines are currently in third-stage trials, none have yet been proven safe and effective or are scheduled to be rolled out to the general public.

Trump did concede that he did owe approximately $US400 million ($565 million), as first reported by the New York Times, but argued that "it’s a tiny percentage of my net worth”.

“When you look at vast properties like I have, and they’re big and they’re beautiful and they’re well-located, when you look at that, the amount of money, $400 million, is a peanut, it’s extremely underlevered,” he said, meaning underleveraged, or having an excessively low debt burden.

(continued)

>>11100067

2/2

Biden faced voters at a town hall event at Philadelphia’s National Constitution Centre, aired on ABC America.

The first 30 minutes covered the issues of coronavirus, the economy, and how a Biden presidency would assist the black community.

The first question came from Nicholas, a Democrat, who asked Biden what he would do to tackle the virus.

Biden said there should be a "national standard" on masks, and slammed Trump for missing the opportunity to safely open schools and businesses.

Asked how he would contain the pandemic without crushing the economy, Biden said businesses and schools should simply be provided with the guidance that they needed to reopen.

"You have social distancing; you have plastic barriers. When you go to the cashier, you have separators between the booths."

Asked whether he supported expanding the size of the Supreme Court, Biden said he had not "been a fan" of court packing in the past, but that he was waiting to see how the confirmation process for Trump's Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett turns out.

He suggested he would reveal his position on the issue before election day on November 3.

On foreign policy, Biden issued a rare compliment to Trump for his recent Middle East peace deal, but lashed the President for "embracing all the thugs in the world" and having no coherent foreign policy plan.

His comments came after audio emerged in which Republican Senator Ben Sasse accused the President of cosying up to dictators.

In a scathing critique to Nebraskan constituents during a telephone town hall, Sasse said the President "kisses dictators’ butts", "ignores that the Uighurs are in literal concentration camps in Xinjiang right now" and "regularly sells out our allies".

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-talks-qanon-and-biden-talks-pandemic-at-duelling-town-hall-qandas-20201016-p565pc.html

China launches strike on Australian cotton

Australian cotton growers could be the latest victims of increasingly bitter trade tensions with China.

Chinese spinning mills have been told to stop buying Australian cotton and the industry could soon face tariffs of up to 40 per cent.

Cotton millers in China are given an import quota each year and have been told they might not receive the allowance if they buy from Australia.

Australia sells about $800 million worth of cotton to China each year and industry groups are disappointed by the deterioration in export conditions.

Cotton Australia and the Cotton Shippers Association are working with the federal government to investigate what is going on.

“The Australian cotton industry will continue having meaningful conversations with stakeholders to fully understand this situation,” they said in a joint statement on Friday.

“We will continue working with the Australian government to respectfully and meaningfully engage with China to find a resolution.”

Trade Minister Simon Birmingham is seeking clarity from Chinese officials.

“Our cotton exporters have worked hard to win contracts and establish themselves as reliable suppliers of high quality cotton in the Chinese market, which is an important input for many Chinese businesses,” he told AAP.

“China should rule out any use of discriminatory actions against Australian cotton producers.

“Impeding the ability of producers to compete on a level playing field could constitute a potential breach of China’s international undertakings, which would be taken very seriously by Australia.”

China has targeted Australian beef, barley and wine in recent months and has reportedly enforced a go-slow on importing coking and thermal coal.

Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton said the government was working closely with the cotton industry to ensure exports could make it to market.

https://7news.com.au/business/finance/china-could-slap-tax-on-australian-cotton-c-1393361

ASIO warns foreign spies are secretly 'cultivating politicians' across Australia

Attempts by foreign spies to secretly cultivate Australian politicians across all levels of government are coming under increasing attention from the country's domestic intelligence agency.

In its annual report, the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) warns "almost every sector of Australian society is a potential target of foreign interference, and the threat manifests itself in different but equally unacceptable ways".

Director-general Mike Burgess has revealed that during the past 12 months ASIO has "stepped up its investigations into attempts to secretly co-opt current and future Australian politicians".

"In all states and territories, at every level of government, intelligence services are seeking to cultivate politicians who will advance the interests of the foreign country," Mr Burgess added.

National security figures fear politicians in local councils are of particular interest to foreign agents because they often rise to more senior positions in state and federal governments.

Despite concerns about foreign actors targeting politicians, Mr Burgess said he would be "uncomfortable" if ASIO was asked to undertake background checks on MPs.

"That is not a position I would want to be in because we have to be independent and apolitical," Mr Burgess told a Senate Committee on Thursday.

"I certainly think it would be uncomfortable if people would want ASIO to do that, for fear of, at some point, you'd say, 'well, ASIO is just stacking the deck with people they prefer'."

ASIO also claims it disrupted a foreign plot this year to "penetrate" Australia's intelligence community but has not specified which country was behind the foiled attempt.

"An Australia-based foreign national was working with a team of foreign intelligence officers, who were trying to recruit multiple Australian security clearance holders," ASIO stated in its annual report.

"The agents wanted sensitive information about the intelligence community's operations, particularly those directed against their home country."

Australia's culturally diverse communities being monitored and harassed

ASIO's director-general has also warned that foreign interference also involves the "monitoring, harassing and intimidating of Australia's culturally diverse communities".

"We have uncovered many cases — involving multiple countries—where Australian community members and their families have been threatened for expressing views at odds with the foreign government's policies or values".

"It is unacceptable that people in Australia are being intimidated simply for advocating democratic reforms or criticising human rights abuses," Mr Burgess said.

"Seen in this context, foreign interference can be nothing less than an attack on Australia's sovereignty, multicultural communities, values and freedoms."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-15/asio-warning-for-local-politicians-over-foreign-spies/12772828

>>11100195

ASIO ANNUAL REPORT 2019-20

1/2

The view from the Director-General’s office is dominated by two buildings–Parliament House and the High Court.

To me, they are concrete reminders that Parliament grants ASIO extraordinary powers, but those powers must always be exercised legally and ethically, with rigorous oversight.

This is something I reflect on every day. When I am approached to apply for a warrant so we can track a potential terrorist, approve an investigation into a suspected spy or consider security advice that might result in a visa cancellation, I ask:

• Are our proposed activities proportionate to the threat?

• Are we using the least intrusive methods possible?

• Are we acting within the letter and the spirit of the law?

In 2019–20 an evolving security environment forced ASIO to use its powers on multiple occasions. Not even a global pandemic could curtail the threats facing Australia. In some cases, it amplified them.

Threat environment

Australia’s threat environment is complex, challenging and changing.

The terrorism threat level remains at PROBABLE, and I see no prospect it will be lowered in the foreseeable future. Sunni Islamic extremism remains ASIO’s greatest concern.

We know that:

• Groups such as Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) continue to call on their supporters to conduct terrorist attacks, with Australia specifically identified as a target.

• Around 80 Australians who travelled to Syria and Iraq to fight for or support Islamic extremist groups are still in the region, and some may bring extremist ideology back to Australia.

• Individuals in Australia continue to be radicalised, and the online amplification of radicalisation messages is reaching ever-younger targets.

• Multiple terrorism offenders are scheduled for release from Australian prisons over the next five years.

At the same time, right-wing extremists are more organised, sophisticated, ideological and active than previous years.

While we have been actively monitoring the threat for some time, this year extreme right-wing individuals comprised around one-third of our counter-terrorism investigative subjects.

Many of these groups and individuals have seized on COVID-19, believing it reinforces the narratives and conspiracies at the core of their ideologies. They see the pandemic as proof of the failure of globalisation, multiculturalism and democracy, and confirmation that societal collapse and a ‘race war’ are inevitable.

Foreign interference

While terrorism is a threat to life, espionage and foreign interference represent threats to our way of life.

There are more foreign spies and their proxies operating in Australia than there were at the height of the Cold War.

Foreign governments are seeking information about Australia’s capabilities, research and technology, and domestic and foreign policy.

This year, for example, ASIO discovered and disrupted a plot to penetrate Australia’s intelligence community.

An Australia-based foreign national was working with a team of foreign intelligence officers, who were trying to recruit multiple Australian security clearance holders. The agents wanted sensitive information about the intelligence community’s operations, particularly those directed against their home country.

While the concept of espionage is well known, ‘foreign interference’ is often misunderstood. Simply praising a foreign country or publicly taking its side is not, of itself, foreign interference.

But when the advocacy is being covertly orchestrated by a foreign government and is contrary to Australia’s national interest, it may well constitute foreign interference.

Almost every sector of Australian society is a potential target of foreign interference, and the threat manifests itself in different but equally unacceptable ways.

In 2019–20, ASIO stepped up its investigations into attempts to secretly co-opt current and future Australian politicians. In all states and territories, at every level of government, intelligence services are seeking to cultivate politicians who will advance the interests of the foreign country.

Foreign interference also manifests in the monitoring, harassing and intimidating of Australia’s culturally diverse communities.

We have uncovered many cases—involving multiple countries—where Australian community members and their families have been threatened for expressing views at odds with the foreign government’s policies or values.

It is unacceptable that people in Australia are being intimidated simply for advocating democratic reforms or criticising human rights abuses. Seen in this context, foreign interference can be nothing less than an attack on Australia’s sovereignty, multicultural communities, values and freedoms.

(continued)

>>11100315

2/2

Performance

This year has been a challenging time for all Australians. ASIO has continued to perform well under difficult circumstances, and my team has shown professionalism and dedication to our mission to deliver outstanding results.

Working with our law enforcement partners, ASIO’s intelligence led to terrorist arrests, convictions and disruptions.

In addition to our actions directly targeting espionage and foreign interference, we continued to provide government and industry with trusted advice to help them protect themselves. We know our efforts have been successful because we have seen foreign intelligence services reassessing the risks of operating in Australia, and in some cases ceasing their activities.

Close readers of this report may notice changes to our staffing and structures. This year, I took the opportunity to clarify the lines of authority and responsibility in our senior workforce.

The number of senior executive officers is now more appropriate for an organisation of ASIO’s size. One consequence of these reforms was a further improvement in the proportion of women in senior roles. For example, women now make up 60 per cent of our Executive Committee.

Transparency

As Director-General, I am committed to ensuring we don’t just do what it is legal, we do what is right.

ASIO recognises we are granted extraordinary powers. We must use these responsibly, and be accountable to Australians and their parliament. This is why new Minister’s Guidelines were issued this year, updating the legal obligations placed on ASIO to make sure our work is lawful, proportionate and ethical.

During the reporting period, we met with the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security (IGIS) on at least a bi-monthly basis, supported by fortnightly meetings with senior staff from the Office of the IGIS. The IGIS possesses powers akin to a standing royal commission and is a key pillar of our rigorous oversight framework.

I intend to be as open as I can be about ASIO’s work. This reflects my personal belief in the power of transparency, a desire to dispel myths about our Organisation, and the importance of explaining the true nature of the threats facing our country.

In 2019–20, ASIO provided nine unclassified submissions to the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security, and appeared before five of its public hearings. ASIO also appeared before a Senate inquiry into press freedom and a public hearing on Australia’s telecommunications access legislation conducted by the Independent National Security Legislation Monitor. In February, I delivered my first Annual Threat Assessment. We also began implementing a strategy to take our Organisation into the spotlight of social media.

This report will provide further context to the work ASIO’s people do every day to protect Australia and Australians from threats to their security. We are your security service. And we make a difference.

Mike Burgess

Director-General of Security

https://www.asio.gov.au/asio-report-parliament.html

https://www.asio.gov.au/sites/default/files/ASIO%20Annual%20Report%202019-20.pdf

'Without peer': Top spy Nick Warner to retire this year

Australia's top spy Nick Warner will retire at the end of the year after a career spanning four decades, as the Morrison government now faces the difficult decision of replacing the director-general of the Office of National Intelligence.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison praised Mr Warner as "without peer" in the intelligence community, saying the government would still look to seek his advice in the future in a less formal capacity.

Mr Warner will stand down as head of ONI when his current term expires in December.

He was the first director-general of ONI, which was created in December 2018 as the chief intelligence assessment and coordination agency.

Mr Warner previously served as director-general of ONI's predecessor, the Office of National Assessments.

He was also the director-general of Australia's overseas intelligence agency, ASIS, as well as the secretary of the Department of Defence.

One of the favourites speculated to replace Mr Warner is cabinet secretary Andrew Shearer, a national security expert and former deputy director-general of ONI.

Mr Shearer also worked as a national security adviser to Tony Abbott and John Howard, and was a senior advisor at Washington think tank, the Centre for Independent and Strategic Studies.

Other potential candidates include current ONI deputy director-general Paul Taloni, the former director of cyber spy agency the Australian Signals Directorate, Paul Grigson, deputy secretary of the Department of Home Affairs and Michelle Chan, Mr Morrison's national security advisor.

Senior government sources confirmed there were a number of candidates and no decision had been made.

Mr Morrison paid tribute to Mr Warner, saying he had known the intelligence chief for many years and he had an "extremely long and distinguished career serving Australia's interests and defending and protecting Australia's interests".

"He's a great Australian, who has done an outstanding job, spanning some four decades in areas of national security, foreign policy and so many other areas," he said.

"His expertise, his experience, his knowledge of these areas is, I would say, without peer and we have been well-served by him in this time, both in this role as the Director-General of the Office of National Intelligence but also as Director-General of the Australian Secret Intelligence Service.

"Nick will still be in a position to be supporting us in any number of other arrangements on a less formal basis going forward into the future."

The ONI was established after the 2017 review into Australia's intelligence agencies recommended its predecessor needed to be expanded to have a direction and supervision role over the nation’s other spy agencies.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/without-peer-top-spy-nick-warner-to-retire-this-year-20201016-p565u0.html

He went down the QAnon rabbit hole for two years. Here's how he got out

Bronte Lord and Richa Naik - October 16, 2020

1/4

One day in June 2019, Jitarth Jadeja went outside to smoke a cigarette. For two years he'd been in the virtual cult of QAnon. But now he'd watched a YouTube video that picked apart the last element of the theory he believed in. Standing there smoking, he would say later, he felt "shattered." He had gone down the QAnon rabbit hole; now, having emerged from it, he had no idea what to do next.

'QAnon only hurts people. It has helped nobody.'

QAnon is a virtual cult that began in late 2017.

The most basic QAnon belief casts President Trump as the hero in a fight against the "deep state" and a sinister cabal of Democratic politicians and celebrities who abuse children. And it features an anonymous government insider called "Q" who purportedly shares secret information about that fight via cryptic online posts.

Travis View is a conspiracy theory researcher who co-hosts the podcast "QAnon Anonymous."

The theory's believers "always fantasize that they are saving children and they're bringing criminals to justice," View says. "But QAnon only hurts people. It has helped nobody."

There aren't solid estimates for the number of QAnon followers worldwide, but it's clear their ranks are growing. A CNN investigation reviewed QAnon-related Facebook pages and groups based only outside the US and found a total of at least 12.8 million interactions between the beginning of the year and the last week of September.

Lisa Kaplan and Cindy Otis lead Alethea Group, a company that tracks disinformation to protect its clients' brands. They followed false claims that Wayfair was complicit in a child exploitation plot as they spread from havens for QAnon to the mainstream in the summer of 2020.

"There's not sort of, one sort of set doctrine or belief system," Otis said. "But a lot of it goes down to what goes viral and what doesn't."

Like many previous conspiracy theory groups, QAnon has become as much about community as its actual theory. The result is a convoluted and ever-changing web of beliefs which branch off from the central worldview. In this case, that includes things like members of the supposed cabal also worshipping Satan, and JFK Jr. having faked his 1999 death in a plane crash to escape the deep state plotters. QAnon has also started assimilating unrelated conspiracy theories, including false ideas about the supposedly dangerous nature of 5G infrastructure and the false, dangerous notion that the Covid-19 pandemic is a ploy to monitor private citizens.

Since there's no leadership or structure to QAnon, its supporters incorporate existing conspiracy theories and develop new ones. QAnon "really does take on a life of its own, which can, in fact make it a more significant threat," Kaplan said.

'A car crash you can't look away from'

Jadeja, the former QAnon believer, is Australian. But he said he's always been interested in American politics. He spent time studying in the US, living in Queens, New York. His nationality is a testament to the fact that QAnon has spread well beyond the United States.

"If you'd look in Australian politics, it's boring by comparison," Jadeja said. "American politics, it's like, it's like a car crash you can't look away from."

During the 2016 US presidential election, Jadeja said, he was drawn to then-candidate Bernie Sanders. He liked what Sanders had to say about inequality and his "anti-establishment sentiment."

But then Trump won. "That kind of really kicked it all off for me," Jadeja said.

(continued)

>>11110804

2/4

It felt to him like the world was shocked by Trump's win. How had seemingly no one seen it coming? And most importantly, who had? "I kind of switched off from all mainstream media," Jadeja said.

That's when he began listening to conspiracy theorist Alex Jones and reading Infowars, which exposed him to QAnon theories for the first time. By December 2017, he identified as a Q follower.

Around this period, Jadeja said he was in the midst of a 15 year struggle to finish his degree. He'd pulled away from friends and become socially isolated. "I just felt completely overwhelmed… I was probably in a deep depression I think when I found Q," he says.

Once Jadeja found QAnon he was quickly sucked in. He would spend time on websites that aggregated posts supposedly from Q, which often first appear on darker corners of the internet like 8kun. Then he'd move on to read the interpretations of those posts from other believers. These interpretations are popular among the QAnon community because posts from "Q" are often so vague that they can be read in any number of ways. The tactic tends to lure in supporters the way fraudulent psychics can — there's little solid information given, so almost anything can be taken as confirmation of a pronouncement by "Q."

"There'd be a lot of Youtube and Reddit mini-celebrities within the community that would be like the anointed decrypter for that point in time," Jadeja noted.

QAnon was all he wanted to talk about. That made life offline increasingly difficult for him, and he pulled away from friends.

"No one believes you. No one wants to talk to you about it. … You get all angsty and crabby and whatnot. [S]uch shouting, irrational, you sound like the homeless guy on the street yelling about Judgment Day," Jadeja said.

One of the few people in his regular life with whom he was able to talk with about his newfound interest with was his father. "We used to talk about it a lot. We used to only talk about it with each other. We show each other things like, did you see that? Did you see that?" Jadeja said.

"I think superficially it did seem like [QAnon] gave me comfort," Jadeja said. "I didn't realize the nefarious kind of impact it was having on me because it was very insidious how it slowly disconnected me from reality."

Finding 'answers'

Experts say that people often seek out conspiracy theories in times of crisis.

"I think we tend to underestimate the extent to which these sorts of narratives are appealing," Alethea Group's Otis said, "especially when we're in a time of great stress and emotions are high."

Otis noted that the 2016 US presidential election was one of those times for many people. Now the coronavirus pandemic means uncertainty and anxiety are once again at a high point.

"It's a very compelling narrative to say all of this is orchestrated," Otis said. "There's a cabal coming after you. They're trying to make your life miserable. You want an answer for why bad things are happening? Here they are."

View, the conspiracy theory researcher, said QAnon preys on vulnerable people who in some cases might be suffering from mental health issues.

"I think it's a mistake to say that QAnon is a conspiracy theory, because this kind of makes it sound like Area 51 or Big Foot," he said. "It's a community of people that radicalizes them into a world view, that just essentially detaches them from reality."

(continued)

>>11110815

3/4

For Jadeja, the impulses he developed while he believed in QAnon are a source of shame. "I would have been so happy to see Hillary Clinton dragged in front of a military tribunal, even though she's a civilian," he said.

"That still bothers me to this day, how willing and happy and joyfully I would have reacted to something that I would normally want no part in… This is how you get good people to do bad things."

In a May 2019 bulletin, the FBI warned that conspiracy theories like QAnon could "very likely" motivate criminal and sometimes violent activity in the US especially because of the reach and volume of conspiratorial content available online.

The platform problem

QAnon theories often start out on fringe internet forums like 8kun and 4chan, according to Alethea Group's Kaplan. But once a claim gains popularity there it can quickly catapult onto mainstream social media networks. "It becomes especially dangerous once these conspiracies go on to platforms like Twitter and Facebook, because it increases the breadth of the reach that these false conspiracies have," she said.

Reddit banned a popular QAnon subreddit in 2018. In July 2020, Twitter said it had removed more than 7,000 QAnon-associated accounts. Last week, Facebook announced it would ban any pages, groups or Instagram accounts representing QAnon. And on Wednesday, YouTube joined the other platforms, saying it would prohibit conspiracy theory content that threatens or harasses an individual or group. It stopped short of banning QAnon and other dangerous theories completely.

But the task of identifying and policing these kinds of accounts is massive. Facebook, for one, has previously made promises to ban certain groups or types of content in the past but enforcement has sometimes been slow or inconsistent.

"This isn't something that there's one solution that will, you know, remove this group from their platform for all eternity," Otis said. "It's going to be an ongoing and dynamic problem."

View believes these actions may be too late. "This is a group who are very highly motivated, and they believe that they are fighting essentially an information war."

Leaving Q

After two years in the world of QAnon, Jadeja said, cracks began to form in his conviction. He believed Wikileaks founder Julian Assange had been instrumental in "exposing" Hillary Clinton and had helped win Trump the election. If Trump was trying to bring down the cabal, Jadeja wondered, how could he let Assange face extradition to the US for charges related to publishing secret military and diplomatic documents? On top of that, Jadeja said, he was noticing more logical inconsistencies in QAnon's theories.

But there was one particular piece of "proof" he was still holding on to.

It went like this: A QAnon follower had supposedly asked Q to tell President Trump to use the phrase "tip top" in a speech. Then Trump did.

To Jadeja, that had been proof that Q existed and had the ear of the president.

But then, as his doubts mounted, he decided to research it further and came across a YouTube video that showed other times Trump had previously said the phrase or something similar. Suddenly "tip top" was no longer irrefutable proof, it was probably just coincidence.

For others, that might have easily been glossed over, a blip easily dismissed in their belief. But for Jadeja, who was nearing a break with QAnon, it was a turning point.

"It was the worst feeling I had in my life," Jadeja said.

That's when he went outside for a smoke.

(continued)

>>11110827

4/4

'It starts with empathy and understanding'

r/Qult_Headquarters is a forum on Reddit "dedicated to documenting, critiquing, and debunking the chan poster known as 'Q' and his devotees." Its 30,000 members pick apart QAnon theories and point out inconsistencies.

It's where Jadeja turned when he stopped believing. He wrote a 659-word post that began with the words "Q fooled me."

He thought the group would ridicule him for believing in the conspiracy theory. "I expected to be torn apart," he said.

Instead, the opposite happened. According to Jadeja, he got over a hundred responses to his post — and nearly all of them were supportive. "These guys put me back together again."

He now thinks one of the toughest challenges in trying to deradicalize a QAnon believer is that they view the opposition as "pure evil."

"This is a big problem, not just because people are being taken in and their families are like being ripped apart," he said. "This is an existential battle between good and evil that these people think they're fighting." He says he used to think the same thing.

Another Reddit community called QAnonCasualties functions as a support group for friends and family members of QAnon believers. It has more than 28,000 members. There are hundreds of stories of loved ones "lost" to QAnon. Friendships ruined. Relationships ended. Families suffering.

Looking back, Jadeja said, he doesn't think there is a single relationship in his life that wasn't affected by his time believing in QAnon. "It's destroyed some of them to this day. It's strained a lot of them to this day."

But there's one thing in particular that he regrets the most: sharing QAnon with his father. CNN reached out to Jadeja's father multiple times for a comment but he did not respond.

Jadeja thinks it's possible more QAnon believers can follow his path out.

"It has to start with empathy and understanding," Jadeja said. That's what the QultHeadquarters community on Reddit gave him.

In View's opinion, confronting QAnon believers with facts isn't the best way to deradicalize them.

He said the best way to help believers is to remind them of their life before Q. Believers need to be encouraged to ask themselves "if this new life that they built for themselves is actually productive, if it's actually building towards something good or if it's just a waste of time and it's filling some kind of emotional void."

Potentially being known as "the QAnon guy" among his friends is the last thing Jadeja wants. But he fears the community will continue to grow. That's why, he said, he decided to share his story — in the hope that other believers might see that there is life after QAnon and reevaluate their choice to support it.

Ultimately, he said, he's glad he went down the QAnon rabbit hole. It taught him a lot about hubris, he believes. And, he said, "It allowed me to really confront, like, the own darkness that's in my own heart."

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/16/tech/qanon-believer-how-he-got-out/index.html

>>11110804

Ex-QAnon believer breaks his silence. How he escaped the viral cult

CNN

Published on 16 Oct 2020

Jitarth Jadeja found QAnon in 2017. The 32-year-old spent two years entrenched in the virtual cult. His biggest regret? Sharing the conspiracy theory with his father. CNN's Donie O'Sullivan reports.

One day in June 2019, Jadeja went outside to smoke a cigarette. For two years he'd been in the virtual cult of QAnon. But now he'd watched a YouTube video that picked apart the last element of the theory he believed in. Standing there smoking, he would say later, he felt "shattered." He had gone down the QAnon rabbit hole; now, having emerged from it, he had no idea what to do next.

The most basic QAnon belief casts President Trump as the hero in a fight against the "deep state" and a sinister cabal of Democratic politicians and celebrities who abuse children. And it features an anonymous government insider called "Q" who purportedly shares secret information about that fight via cryptic online posts.

Travis View is a conspiracy theory researcher who co-hosts the podcast "QAnon Anonymous."

The theory's believers "always fantasize that they are saving children and they're bringing criminals to justice," View says. "But QAnon only hurts people. It has helped nobody."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOkKkH23pi4

Expert on QAnon says the movement’s claims are ‘all bull s—’

What started as niche claims spread by largely pro-Donald Trump, anti-Hillary Clinton people in the United States has now spread to Australia. Here’s what you need to know about the QAnon movement.

Ellen Whinnett - October 17, 2020

1/2

Right now, according to a persistent story circulating on social media, thousands of children stolen from their families are being trafficked through a labyrinth of secret tunnels under Melbourne and Sydney.

For “proof’’ of this lurid claim, videos have been made for people to share, set to stirring music and featuring confronting photos of bound and gagged children, with heroic police and military types coming to the rescue.

The claim is false. There are not thousands of children being trafficked through tunnels under Australia’s two biggest cities. The videos are crude mashups of media reporting of other crimes.

But for a certain group of people, the tunnel kids story is further proof of the far-right movement known as QAnon, which promulgates the bizarre conspiracy theory that the world is being run by a Satanic cabal of paedophiles.

What started as niche claims spread by largely pro-Donald Trump, anti-Hillary Clinton people in the United States back in 2016 has now spread to Australia, where it’s been turbocharged by the anti-government, anti-police sentiment stirred up by Victoria’s COVID-19 lockdown.

“They really had their debut ball at the anti-COVID lockdown rallies in Melbourne, that’s when people were really introduced to them,’’ said Kaz Ross, a global studies lecturer at the University of Tasmania, who has been studying QAnon for years.

“With the pandemic, suddenly, everyone’s involved.’’

QAnon believers come from different walks of life but have many common threads – they are often anti-vaxxers, conservative voters and evangelical Christians.

Current QAnon targets include Bill Gates for his work on developing vaccines, the billionaire George Soros, and now Victoria Police for their enforcement of Victoria’s laws requiring people to wear face masks.

One QAnon promoter, Sarah Shanahan, who runs a musical theatre school in Sydney, has posted clips including one on the false “children in the tunnels’’ story and other untrue claims, including about Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews and highly defamatory claims about Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

“Melbourne lockdown … removal of hundreds of children from underground tunnels. Sydney you’re next … and every state in Australia. News reporters are actors - if you remove your blinkers and see it for what it really is - you will realise the news is just another tv show with actors. They tell you what THEY want you to know not what you should know, how else can they keep everyone where they want them?’’ she posted to Facebook in August.

Ms Shanahan requested questions be sent to her via email, but did not respond to them.

Early QAnon claims persist to this day, including that Mr Trump was secretly fighting a “deep state’’ cabal of child abusers. Posts from a person known as “Q’’ which first appeared on the site 4Chan purported to have secret information confirming this.

“Anons’’ are people who appointed themselves as being able to read secret messages from Q, and the group began promoting fake stories such as “Pizzagate’’ which alleged the Democrats’ presidential candidate Hillary Clinton was running a child abuse ring out of a pizza shop in Washington DC.

The ludicrous claim almost ended in tragedy when a man decided to “self-investigate’’ in late 2016 and fired a gun into the shop.

While it started as a pro-Trump movement, QAnon believers in Australia are broadly opposed to Scott Morrison.

Ironically, Mr Morrison’s associate Tim Stewart, whose wife works as a personal assistant to Mr Morrison’s wife Jenny and who was a bridesmaid at the Morrisons’ wedding, is a QAnon promoter whose Twitter feed @BurnedSpy34 was disabled for what Twitter said was “co-ordinated harmful activity.’’

He started a new Twitter account, @Burned_Spy34 in September, where he has continued to post about deep state, former Australian High Commissioner to the UK Alexander Downer and numerous posts about child sexual abuse. He uses numerals in place of some letters to avoid being blocked by algorithms, including child tr@fficking and p3dophile.

Twitter banned him again late this week, saying the account breached the site’s ban evasion policy.

(continued)

>>11111509

2/2

In recent months social media companies including Twitter, Facebook and Instagram have purged thousands of QAnon accounts, while online retailer Etsy says it will no longer sell QAnon merchandise.

But Dr Ross said the groups were getting around the ban by setting up new accounts and using new hashtags to spread the word, including save the children, white rabbit, rabbit, truth and 17 (the letter Q is 17th in the alphabet).

“They’re undermining the Government, the media, claiming Dan Andrews is lying, WHO is full of rubbish,’’ she said.

Dr Ross said QAnon had been gathering pace in the US since 2017, propped up by anti-vaxxers.

“The anti-vaccine community is massive, it’s well funded in America and persistent in Australia,’’ she said.

She said the “Pastel Q’’ or “Butterfly Q’’ crowd, such as wellness influencers, had now jumped on the QAnon bandwagon, having realised they had an audience eager to hear their anti-vaccine claims.

Dr Ross said not all anti-authority types supported QAnon – anarchists, for example, stayed well away and had not been involved in the anti-lockdown rallies in Melbourne.

But she said the result of the activities of QAnon believers was a divisive political debate, not based in science, which actively sought to undermine government, the media, and science.

“The most corrosive thing is they don’t trust science, they don’t trust scientists, they have a low digital literacy and think doing their own research is watching a few YouTubes,’’ she said.

Dr Ross said the “children in the tunnels’’ false reports showed how “people have been overcome by conspiracy thinking.’’

“People feel like they’re free to make up their own minds. Do your own research is one of their slogans,’’ she said of QAnon.

But Dr Ross said viewing a few clips on YouTube from like-minded conspiracy theorists did not show a high degree of digital literacy, and just reinforced the conspiracy theory.

“It’s all bullshit, obviously,’’ she said of QAnon’s claims.

“They don’t trust. They think they’re being lied to.’’

Anti-vaxxer celebrity chef Pete Evans, recently mused on his Instagram page about having discussions involving “Q”, and mentioned Dr Ross in a post after she criticised him in the media. She was then targeted by his supporters who sought her out online.

Dr Ross said the fact the organisers of several anti-lockdown protest rallies in Melbourne had their social media accounts disabled by police had further agitated some QAnon promoters, who believed they had been silenced.

“The Q thing has been smashed actually,’’ she said.

“It moved to (encrypted app) Telegram and became a leaderless movement.’’

She said people in Australia appeared to be drawn to QAnon in 2020 “because people want to make something out of a pretty shit year.

“What does Q promise? That there’s a plan, and don’t worry, Trump has a plan. Some people genuinely believe God is working through Trump.’’

Dr Ross said the QAnon followers were not dangerous, but had taught people to follow conspiracy theories and “it has had a corrosive influence on social cohesion.’’

https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/news/national/expert-on-qanon-says-the-movements-claims-are-all-bull-s/news-story/05a9455c5b93c613f77a1fe1aec52dd4

Q OF CELEBS - Dangerous QAnon conspiracy theory spread by host of celebs including Roseanne Barr and James Woods

Alahna Kindred - 16 Oct 2020

1/3

THE dangerous, unfounded QAnon conspiracy theory has been spread by numerous celebrities including Roseanne Barr and James Woods.

And last night, US President Donald Trump refused to condemn the QAnon conspiracy theorists.

QAnon is a dangerous right-wing conspiracy theory that the FBI believes is a domestic terror threat.

It is centered on unfounded allegations the president is waging a secret battle against a pedophile ring filled with celebrities and political elites, who have been covertly running the US government for decades.

Last night, Town Hall moderator Savannah Guthrie asked Trump to "disavow" their belief "that Democrats have a satanic pedophile ring and you [Trump] are the savior of that."

She challenged him: "Just say it's crazy and untrue."

The President replied: "I don't know about QAnon.

"What I do hear about it, they are very strongly against pedophilia, they fight it very hard. But I know nothing about it."

QAnon supporters have been linked to series of violent crimes in the US.

Anthony Comello, 24, was accused in March 2019 of killing Francesco Cali, a Gambino mob boss.

Comello, 24, said in court that QAnon had led him to kill Cali.

It led to him being determined to be mentally unfit for trial, according to local reports.

In 2019, the FBI named Michael 'Lewis Arthur' Meyer as an one example of QAnon-related criminality.

Meyer emptied several water barrels that were left for migrants crossing over the Mexico-US border thinking there were left for a sex trafficking ring.

Even though celebrities are often the targets of the allegations, some have come out in support of the baseless theory.

Roseanne Barr

The disgraced comedian has written a number of since-deleted tweets in support of QAnon.

In 2018, the former TV star tweeted praise for Trump, writing that the president had "broken up pedophile rings in high places everywhere".

Barr tweeted: "President Trump has freed so many children held in bondage to pimps all over the world. Hundreds each month.

"He has broken up trafficking rings in high places everywhere. notice that.

"I disagree on some things but give him benefit of doubt 4-now."

The sitcom star later clarified she was praising Trump for naming April "Child Abuse Prevention Month", Buzzfeed previously reported.

Barr's previous tweets also include her asking "who is Q?" and asking for QAnon to text her.

According to the baseless theory, Q, is an anonymous source who is trying to tell the world a secret - or multiple secrets.

(continued)

>>11111966

2/3

James Woods

James Woods has also been said to spread QAnon theories.

In April 2018, the actor tweeted: "I’m holding back my thoughts on #Q. Let’s see where the wind blows."

On October 6, James tweeted an old video of Former First Lady Michelle Obama praising Harvey Weinstein.

The video was from 2013, before the #MeToo movement and before Weinstein's actions were widely known.

It follows the common trope of QAnon supporters of identifying Democrats as "sharing a bed" with sex abusers.

Pete Evans

Celebrity chef Pete Evans shared a video from a press conference about the US President spoke about QAnon supporters on his Instagram with popcorn emojis.

In May, the Australian also put up an Instagram story that mirrors language used by believers of the conspiracy theory, Buzzfeed reported.

The post included a chart with dozens of references to parts of the theory including a prominent "Q".

(continued)

>>11111992

3/3

Curt Schilling

The ex-professional baseball player has written a handful of tweets about QAnon.

In June 2018, the former Boston Red Sox pitcher tweeted a now-deleted YouTube video saying he has been "researching the movement".

He wrote: "I've been asked about the "Q" for a few months now.

"Not really knowing who or what it was in any sort of detail.

"Started researching this movement a few weeks ago and someone sent this to me today. Pretty much impossible to stop watching once you start."

A month later, he tweeted at Media Matters criticising them for calling the QAnon theory "baseless".

A month later, he also tweeted: "@MediaMattersZA I think it's fantastic that your only attack is "baseless" without ever actually pointing to a 'lie'.

"It has to suck to know the Q has reported more accurate news in the past 14 days than your rag in its entire existence!"

Alex Jones

Before the Infowars conspiracy theorist was de-platformed, he tweeted and made video about QAnon.

In a tweet from 2018, Alex wrote: "Despite worrying signs that America is heading to the point of no return, QAnon indicates that Trump may be gearing up to fight back against the globalist coup."

Alex also shared from this Infowars channel called "QAnon decoded".

A search of "QAnon" on his website also brings up a video titled "Q joins Infowars: Live on Air".

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12945354/qanon-james-woods-roseanne-barr/

>>11048335

US election 2020: Voters are tired of Trump’s catastrophic presidency

Troy Bramston - OCTOBER 16, 2020

1/2

Donald Trump can still win the US election. But he would need the greatest comeback in presidential history. The reality is that Trump is on track to lose by a landslide. This has been evident all year. Why? Not because the election is rigged, the political system is corrupt or the media is biased, but because Trump has been a catastrophic president.

It is not surprising that Trump is trailing Joe Biden by an average of nine to 10 points in national polls. Biden is reaching into the early 50s while Trump struggles in the low 40s. Biden’s national lead is far greater than Hillary Clinton ever achieved. It is the biggest lead any challenger has had since 1936. This is an important electoral sign but it is not necessarily predictive. Trump lost the popular vote four years ago.

More worrying for Trump is the battleground states. Trump is well behind in the three midwestern states he won unexpectedly, although narrowly, in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump trails Biden by six to eight points in these states. If the same margin of error four years ago is repeated, Trump will still lose all of them. It is difficult to see a pathway to victory for Trump without winning these states. Moreover, Biden has stable polling leads in Arizona, Florida and North Carolina. Biden also is leading in the average of polls taken in Georgia, Iowa and Ohio.

Trump won all of these states in 2016. If Trump loses Florida, it is probably all over.

The polling is concerning Republicans so much that they fear down-ballot losses. Some Republican Senate and house candidates are distancing themselves from Trump. There is a good chance that Democrats could win control of the Senate. A 50-50 Senate would give Kamala Harris the casting vote as vice-president.

Where candidates campaign is indicative of how they see the contest. Trump is on the defensive, spending time mostly in states he won in 2016. Biden is on the offensive, eyeing Democratic gains in multiple states. This mirrors the advertising spend and allocation of campaign resources.

Trump needs to expand his base to win re-election. But all the data shows him losing voters since 2016. His approval rating is 44 per cent according to Gallup. This is below the first-term average for every president since Harry Truman. Trump has not achieved 50 per cent approval in a Gallup poll this year. A month from their re-election, Barack Obama’s approval was 50 per cent, George W. Bush’s was 49 per cent and Bill Clinton’s was 56 per cent.

Another important measure of the mood of voters is to ask about the direction of the country. Just 31 per cent of voters think the US is on the right track and 62 per cent say it is on the wrong track. This reflects poorly on Trump as the incumbent president. It is often forgotten that voters have already judged Trump’s presidency in the 2018 midterm elections. The result? Republicans lost the House of Representatives.

(continued)

>>11112388

2/2

The most important election issue is COVID-19. Trump’s handling of the pandemic has been disastrous. The US has a higher infection and death rate than any other major developed economy. Trump lied about how deadly the virus was, delayed acting and his eventual response has been flawed. He mocked masks, ignored social distancing, suggested injecting bleach and recommended drugs with dangerous side effects. Trump getting COVID-19 is emblematic of his failures. Most voters believe he would not have tested positive for the virus if he had taken it more seriously.

The key for Democrats was choosing the right candidate to face Trump. The most viable was always Biden. He is experienced, having served as vice-president and senator, and is a moderate on policy. He is not from the Democratic Party’s loony left wing. Biden is a centrist. It is mistaken to think Biden’s support is fuelled only by anti-Trump sentiment.

Even before the Democratic primaries and caucuses this year, Biden was viewed much more favourably than Trump. Biden has made inroads into Trump’s base, especially with men and white non-college graduates, and leads among younger and older voters, women, college graduates and non-white voters. Biden has a broad coalition of support. Enthusiasm for Biden lags that for Trump, but the gap is closing.

There is no doubt that Biden, at age 77, is missing a few beats. But the debate showed he is intellectually, physically and cognitively up to the job of being president. Is everything Trump says lucid, logical and coherent? Of course not. The bottom line is that Biden passes the character test; Trump does not.

Biden’s key pitch to voters is that he will unite, not divide; lead with dignity and integrity; treat people with respect, not derision; be honest, not dishonest; and he will listen rather than lecture. Biden uniquely matches this moment as the perfect anti-Trump. Voters are fatigued by Trump’s intellectually and morally bankrupt presidency. Biden is an experienced, safe, mainstream candidate for president.

Those desperate to keep the MAGA — Make America Great Again — dream alive comfort themselves with talk of “shy Trump voters”. There may be polling errors this year. But pollsters have made improvements in their sampling, including weighting by education and geography. The truth is that Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by what was a normal polling error. It was a close result. Trump drew the wrong lessons from victory.

If Trump does lose, it will become the new “lost cause”. This is the myth that sustained the sons and daughters of Confederate soldiers that their crusade was right and they were not defeated. Trump’s MAGA supporters will burnish this faith. It will never die. Trump will become its chief propagandist. A dynasty of Trump candidates beckons. Or Trump could run again in 2024.

Some commentators said Trump could not win four years ago. This was a monumental error of judgment. Trump appealed to the cultural anxieties and economic insecurities of Americans and capitalised on Clinton’s deep unpopularity. Clinton was always the likely winner according to the polls, but it was by no means certain. Trump always had a chance of victory.

But Trump was lucky in 2016. He essentially won the presidency by a combined 77,744 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He was helped by third-party candidates who siphoned votes from Clinton. There was no electoral college sweep. He lost the popular vote by 2.8 million. This time the election will be a referendum on Trump’s presidency. He needs all the luck he can get.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/us-election-2020-voters-are-tired-of-trumps-catastrophic-presidency/news-story/072651acec9e171b5be8242b087817fd

George Papadopoulos Tweet

Nick Short @PoliticalShort

“FBI began spying on Trump’s 2016 camp w/far less info than the @nypost has published about the Biden family business. If a secondhand report about what a drunken George Papadopoulos might have said about Russia & HRC’s e-mails was good enough, then…”

C-SPAN and Twitter prove the bias of Big Media and Big Tech: Goodwin

https://nypost.com/2020/10/15/c-span-and-twitter-prove-the-bias-of-big-media-and-big-tech-goodwin/

https://twitter.com/PoliticalShort/status/1317180344110583809

—

Replying to @PoliticalShort and @nypost

A little hard to be “drunk” at a meeting when I reported Alexander Downer to US authorities shortly after the meeting for his overt recording and spying. This is coming out with Durham. Massive scandal

https://twitter.com/GeorgePapa19/status/1317196040530001926