Part 1 of 2

Summary: China is fucked.

https://twitter.com/paul_furber/status/1307908382930673664

Paul Furber@paul_furber

Brazilanon gives a great summary of China's overall prospects. Capped from this thread here:

https://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/278439963

1:03 AM · Sep 21, 2020

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The halfchan posts:

Anonymous (ID: sV/7ZuVE) 09/20/20(Sun)19:02:35 No.278440787▶>>278441457 >>278492705 >>278493908

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Summary Done on 18-09

HK: Occupied by CCP, full of pro-democracy and independence insurgents. Was PRC’s primary input hose for foreign capital, which is getting cut off because now the charade is up. HK’s decades-long efforts to build a financial hub only worked because it had transparency and autonomy.

Xinjiang: Cultural genocide of Uighurs (Sinicization) in progress with holocaust slave labor, pissing off muslims outside of China. All exports traceable to Xinjiang getting shut down by the USA.

Tibet: Still a breakaway region, now a battlespace for border clashes with India & Bhutan.

Inner Mongolia: New cultural genocide/Sinicization in progress, pissing off Genghis Khan himself.

Taiwan: A public relations disaster for the PRC for its entire existence, now fucking based hedgehog island with closer ties to USA than ever. On the verge of total independence, but the mainland is going to try to stop it before it’s too late.

One Belt One Road (Land): Fucked. Every potential partner is either thinking twice or saying “haha fuck no”. Thailand axed the canal to bypass Malacca Strait, Vietnam canceled investment negotiations. Central asian overland transport would have to pass through thousands of miles of muslim insurgent territory who wouldn’t pass up a chance to interdict Chinese trade to avenge the Xinjiang genocide.

One Belt One Road (Sea): Also fucked. China’s seaborne trade is tenuous at best, PLA Navy can’t really project far from their shores where they have land-based weapon systems as a force multiplier. Weaker navies than the USA could interdict Chinese trade if they really wanted to. Energy imports also come over the sea – more on that further down.

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Anonymous (ID: sV/7ZuVE) 09/20/20(Sun)19:02:52 No.278440823▶>>278441457

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CCP state-owned banks: Fucked. Tied up with a huge domestic debt bubble (~250% of reported GDP for non-financial sector loans) and barely any viable investments left in the country anymore. They’ve already built all the high-ROI infrastructure they possibly can. Now building ghost towns, tofu towers, and bridges to nowhere just to keep people employed and have to keep rolling the debt over or slowly writing it off to deflate the bubble without having double-digit inflation.

Debt-trap diplomacy: On the way out. In a polite international environment, China would benefit the way it did with Sri Lanka, getting useful port leases or other benefits. Now everyone is wary of what happens when China is your loan shark and no one wants their investment.

India: Not fucking around. ‘Nuff said.

Japan: Pulling business out of China at record speed, faster than finding out you’re fucking a chick with herpes.

Huawei: Fucked. Getting cut off from high-end chip supply chains. Barely any market to sell to except the domestic Chinese market. CCP just started mandating corporate use of Huawei instead of iPhone, they’re trying to force domestic demand now.

Flood-chan: Destroying China’s already-limited domestic food supply and arable land, wrecking low-lying towns along the Yangtze, forcing demolition of smaller dams, causing landslides in Sichuan, overwhelming TGD, also fucking cute and hot at the same time (picrel).

Xi Jinping: Faced with all of these issues and an internal power struggle. Barely any cards to play in the domestic situation other than nationalism and totalitarianism.

[Go to part 2]

>>10732489

Part 2 of 2:

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Anonymous (ID: sV/7ZuVE) 09/20/20(Sun)19:03:09 No.278440850▶>>278441457 >>278441902

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TGD: integrity questionable as fuck with years of suspected silt buildup, cracks, foundation shift, etc. Apparently the mass of the reservoir has opened up an underground fault 100km away from the dam and earthquakes are happening regularly now. They’re doing massive weather modification to trigger rains downstream of TGD so that it doesn’t overload the reservoir or cause more problems in the basin further inland, sacrificing the downstream areas in the process (the rain has to fall somewhere, after all).

US Foreign Policy: Still the chad of the high seas with no real competition. Dick-swinging by sailing the Taiwan strait and south china sea all the time. On the verge of recognizing Taiwan’s de facto independence by re-introducing them to the UN. Shutting down Chinese consulates that have been bases for espionage (Houston).

US Economic Warfare: Using the federal reserve to conduct seigniorage on all of the treasuries China holds. If you control the printing press for your home currency, you hold the trump card over anyone who owns your debt. Still an irreplaceable destination market for Chinese production and using that to its advantage, because there aren’t any other giant, rich consumer countries who can buy in the kind of volume the US does.

Demographics: See China’s population pyramid. They are like Japan 20 years ago but worse thanks to one child policy, with a rapidly rising elder dependency ratio and an inevitable population decline beginning ~2030. The young generation might not want for jobs as their elders retire and the labor pool shrinks, but at the same time they will be taxed heavily as they support a huge retiree population.

Chinese business climate: CCP wants to police every private enterprise to ensure political compliance (“party loyalty”). Basically they expect all of the benefits of a free market while exerting more control over it. Laying groundwork for nationalization/command economy.

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Anonymous (ID: sV/7ZuVE) 09/20/20(Sun)19:03:35 No.278440905▶>>278441457 >>278490119

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China’s GDP: A joke. GDP and growth figures have been inflated collectively by local and national officials in the past several years to attract desperately-needed foreign investment. If you think financial accounting can be sketchy in the US or developed world, it’s way worse in China and the developing world in general.

Energy Dependency: Remember around 2005 when the USA peaked at over 10 million barrels per day of foreign oil imports? Guess what, China surpassed that record in 2019.

Food Dependency: Huge and still rising import volumes from USA, Brazil, and Argentina in recent years, particularly feed for hogs. In 2020, flood-chan has been busy ruining crops all along the Yangtze and up north in Heilongjiang, another breadbasket. China only has about 0.2 acres per capita of arable land (compare with the net-exporter USA with ~1.1 acres per capita), and some of the floods are carrying pollution that will make flooded lands unuseable without costly remediation.

Chinese populace: enjoyed unprecedented prosperity and rising standards of living for 40 years, significantly increased freedom of information and movement (relatively speaking), only to suffer covid, lockdowns, and a failing economy all at once. And now their desperate, coercive party-state wants to claw back its citizens’ newfound wealth and freedom (again, think “freedom” relative to the Mao era, it’s nothing like western standards of freedom) for the party-state’s own survival. The leeks are gonna get mad. Unlike NK they have the means and the will to slip outrage material against the government through all the censorship. The CCP bootheel will meet with fiercer, more widespread resistance this time.

>>10732489

>>10732499

Damn! Pics didn't load.

This is why we don't get honest MSM reporting out of China!

The Chinese authorities threaten not to renew the 12-month residency visas and "go after family members as a way to exact punishment and revenge." The Australian article is very interesting but way too long to screencap.

https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1307989032920428545

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-21/matthew-carney-foreign-journalist-china-intimidation-birtles/12678610

Indo-Pacific News@IndoPac_Info·5h

Former #Australian ABC #Beijing bureau chief tells story of fleeing #China

"Your daughter is 14 years old. She's an adult under #Chinese law & as the People's Republic of China is a law-abiding country she'll be charged with a visa crime"

A must readThumbs up

I was 'berated' for negative China coverage — and then officials invited me in for a 'cup of tea'

After my departure from Beijing I was reluctant to report what had happened because I did not want to put ABC staff at risk. But all that changed with the expulsion of Bill Birtles and Mike Smith,…

abc.net.au

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Indo-Pacific News@IndoPac_Info·5h

A man from the Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission called us and told us that our reporting had "violated China's laws and regulations, spread rumours and illegal, harmful information which endangered state security and damaged national pride".

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Indo-Pacific News@IndoPac_Info

One way the Chinese authorities try to force foreign journalists to self-censor their work is by threatening not to renew the 12-month residency visas.

It's also part of the Chinese playbook: to go after family members as a way to exact punishment and revenge.

6:24 AM · Sep 21, 2020