Anonymous ID: 562498 Sept. 23, 2020, 5:24 p.m. No.10762853   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>2865 >>2886 >>2957 >>3074

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HEALTHCARE WORKERS

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios

Updated Sept. 10, 2020

 

Summary of Recent Changes

Updated September 10, 2020:

 

The Infection Fatality Ratio parameter has been updated to include age-specific estimates

The parameter for Number of Days from Symptom Onset to Seeking Outpatient Care—which was based on influenza care seeking data—has been replaced with the Median Number of Days from Symptom Onset to SARS-CoV-2 Test among SARS-CoV-2 Positive Patients

A new parameter for the likelihood of an infection being reported has been added: The Ratio of Estimated Infections to Reported Case Counts

CDC and the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Responseexternal icon (ASPR) have developed five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios that are designed to help inform decisions by public health officials who use mathematical modeling, and by mathematical modelers throughout the federal government. Models developed using the data provided in the planning scenario tables can help evaluate the potential effects of different community mitigation strategies (e.g., social distancing). The planning scenarios may also be useful to hospital administrators in assessing resource needs and can be used in conjunction with the COVID-19Surge Tool.

 

Each scenario is based on a set of numerical values for biological and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 illness, which is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. These values—called parameter values—can be used in models to estimate the possible effects of COVID-19 in U.S. states and localities. This document was first posted on May 20, 2020, with the understanding that the parameter values in each scenario would be updated and augmented over time, as we learn more about the epidemiology of COVID-19. The September 10 update is based on data received by CDC through August 8, 2020.

 

In this update, age-specific estimates of Infection Fatality Ratios have been updated, one parameter measuring healthcare usage has been replaced with the median number of days from symptom onset to positive SARS-CoV-2 test, and a new parameter has been included: Ratio of Estimated Infections to Reported Case Counts, which is based on recent serological data from a commercial laboratory survey in the U.S.1

 

New data on COVID-19 are available daily, yet information about the biological aspects of SARS-CoV-2 and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 remain limited, and uncertainty remains around nearly all parameter values. For example, current estimates of infection-fatality ratios do not account for time-varying changes in hospital capacity (e.g., in bed capacity, ventilator capacity, or workforce capacity) or for differences in case ascertainment in congregate and community settings or in rates of underlying health conditions that may contribute to a higher frequency of severe illness in those settings. A nursing home, for example, may have a high incidence of infection (due to close contacts among many individuals) and severe disease (due to a high rate of underlying conditions) that does not reflect the frequency or severity of disease in the broader population of older adults. In addition, the practices for testing nursing home residents for SARS-CoV-2 upon identification of a positive resident may be different than testing practices for contacts of confirmed cases in the community. Observed parameter values may also change over time (e.g., the percentage of transmission occurring prior to symptom onset will be influenced by how quickly and effectively both symptomatic people and the contacts of known cases are quarantined).

 

The parameters in the scenarios:

 

Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning.

Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.

Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html