Trump’s Four-Tiered Pathway Back into White House with Electoral College Victory Widens
President Donald Trump’s pathway back into the White House is widening, as allies of the president see after a long and brutal summer of the president climbing back into contention in enough battleground states to seal the deal and win a second term. This comprehensive look at the battlefield as it stands now comes as the two candidates are set to face off in Cleveland, Ohio, for their first of three debates this general election season ahead of the November 3 general election.
To win the White House back, Trump would need to secure at least 270 electoral votes by cobbling together a coalition of states—much like he did in 2016—to get him across the finish line.
Trump allies break down the electoral college into four tiers. Tier one, or the red states, includes the following states: Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska, Wyoming, Utah, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas, and Arizona.
Winning all those tier one states would secure the president 191 electoral votes. In all but three of them, his victory is all but assured. In Texas, Arizona, and Georgia, however, the Democrats are competing and attempting to flip them, but signs in each of those three states of a Trump resurgence have emerged as of late. Most recent polling in Georgia suggests the president has recovered there and is not at risk of losing to Democrat candidate former Vice President Joe Biden, as is the case in Texas. Arizona is a bit tighter, but the most recent ABC News-Washington Post poll had Trump up by 1 percent inside the poll’s margin of error.
Tier two, Trump allies believe, is a pair of states worth another 24 electoral votes combined: Iowa and Ohio. Recent polling in both places, save a couple outliers, has Trump up over Biden in each. Putting tiers one and two together would give Trump 215 electoral votes.
The third tier is another pair of states the president won in 2016, worth a combined 44 more electoral votes: North Carolina and Florida. The president has in the most recent ABC-WaPo poll in Florida taken a 4 percent lead over Biden in the Sunshine State, and in North Carolina has been consistently leading in most polls. Combining tiers one through three would get Trump much closer to 270 and a second term as it would put him at 259 electoral votes in total.
From there, tier four offers Trump any number of pathways across the finish line and back into the White House. A win in Pennsylvania, which has 20 electoral votes, would get him there. So would a win in Michigan, which has 16 electoral votes. Trump could also cobble together a combination of Wisconsin, which has ten electoral votes, plus Maine’s Second Congressional District, which has one electoral vote. He could do the same with Minnesota, which also has ten electoral votes, plus Wisconsin or Maine’s Second District to get over 270. Other states in the fourth tier include Nevada with six electoral votes, New Hampshire with four electoral votes, New Mexico with five electoral votes, Colorado with nine electoral votes, and Virginia with 13 electoral votes.
CONFIDENCE BUILDS IN TRUMPWORLD
The Trump team—both official campaign staff and outside allies—believe in this pathway to victory and think the president is in much better shape than the establishment media would give him credit for as of now.
“In all the battlegrounds President Trump needs to win, he’s either leading or within the margin of error,” senior adviser to the Trump campaign Jason Miller said in an early September radio appearance on Breitbart News Saturday on SiriusXM 125 the Patriot Channel. “So I think that’s an important distinction. Don’t worry about the fake polls you see out there, the sample 25 percent Republicans that make you think there aren’t any Republicans left in the country anymore.President Trump is in a great position.”
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/09/29/trumps-four-tiered-pathway-back-into-white-house-with-electoral-college-victory-widens/