The democratic governor polis calls on bad guy that is trying to steal the Mayflower and Christmas…I mean Winter Holidays
Polis: Colorado at 'critical' coronavirus juncture as officials predict holiday virus wave
Colorado is at a "critical" coronavirus juncture, with hospitalizations surging and state officials urging residents to "remain vigilant" ahead of a predicted fourth, holiday-induced virus wave that could cause the state to exceed ICU capacity as early as December.
Although the state's trend in diagnoses has plateaued over the past several days, its growth in hospitalizations — a rise of 140% over two weeks ago — "cannot continue," Gov. Jared Polis said during a virtual news conference, calling the dramatic uptick in hospitalizations "alarming."
"We've got to do better to avoid overwhelming our hospitals," he cautioned and urged residents to "double down" on preventative basics such as social-distancing, hand-washing and mask-wearing.
While the number of COVID-related hospitalizations — nearly 250 — does not challenge state hospital capacity, if the rate of increase continues "for another two weeks, and another two weeks, we would be back in a situation where the best quality of care" for those requiring hospitalization would be in jeopardy, he said.
The hospitalizations exceed state health officials' projection of nearly 225 by Oct. 12, state epidemiologist Rachel Herlihy said.
New models shown by Herlihy project a fourth wave of disease — the result of holiday gatherings — that could peak in early to mid-December and subside in February or March, if social distancing rates are around 50-55%. Social-distancing rates of 60%, however, could make a substantial difference, resulting in a flatter curve with a less dramatic, later peak in late February or March that begins to subside in May, she said.
The peak of new daily cases, under those models, could hit 40,000 if social distancing drops as low as 30% around the holidays. However, a peak of only 10,000 new daily cases could be seen during the same period if an estimated 60% of the state maintains social-distancing, said Herlihy, adding that the state is at an estimated social-distancing rate of 50-60%.
Last week, the state experienced a nearly 15% decrease in reported cases week over week — the first such decrease since mid-August, Herlihy said.
But that decrease was fueled almost exclusively by the work on Colorado's college campuses to flatten the curve among 18-to-25-year-olds, whose cases have surged in recent weeks.
After colleges including the University of Colorado at Boulder took steps to stop student gatherings, that age group experienced a 45% decrease in disease transmission week over week, state figures show. When that age group is removed from the data, however, the rest of Colorado saw a 1% increase in disease transmission compared with the previous week, Herlihy said.
The state must get back "down to the valley that puts us in a much better place moving intoThanksgiving and the winter holidays,“ Herlihy said.
"We did this before, and we can do it again," Polis said about the state's increased rates of social-distancing and mask-wearing after officials urged for better compliance in previous waves of the virus. "We need to live more like we did in late July, early August. We need to move forward together to set ourselves up for a successful holiday season."
As of last week, the rate of spread of the virus in the state was 1.25 people infected for every positive case, Herlihy said. Polis called that number "not sustainable."
https://gazette.com/news/polis-colorado-at-critical-coronavirus-juncture-as-officials-predict-holiday-virus-wave/article_761d443c-0806-11eb-b810-4bfe2d8bb513.html