I was doing some digging on October surprises and figured I would take a look at the Access Hollywood tapes that were used to smear Candidate Trump in 2016. The tapes came out as an October surprise and I was thinking that it was probably released at the most opportune time to damage a campaign. I figured it would be interesting to look back and see when those tapes came out and see how it compared to this 2020 cycle and see where things stood. There's a very detailed wiki page on the access hollywood tapes that describes every bit of how the tape was released and how NBC wrote a draft story on Oct 4th 2016 that got leaked to the Washington Post and everybody sat on it for a while but then it got published finally on Oct 7th 2016 at 4PM. I did't expect this when I started this mini-dig but that timeline translated to 2020 puts the calculated ideal moment for an October surprise at 4PM tonight… or 1.5 hours from now.
Datefagging is terrible and I am not promising or predicting anything. What I would like to point out is that we have not seen any October surprises yet - despite the panic in DC. I think things have changed a little bit too in terms of people's attention span and the speed of the news cycle. The ideal moment may be a bit later in the countdown to compensate for more aggressive reporting so I wouldn't hold out for any given moment or anything like that. However, I think we're on the precipice. There's major booms on the horizon. Both campaigns will be firing everything they've got. Biden camp will undoubtedly land some blows but rest assured anons. The Trump campaigns October surprise hasn't landed yet and you know it' going to be a MOAB.