>>11023436 LB

How do you conclude the missile is flying south? I conclude something entirely different. Here's why:

1. Concur with your findings of camera direction and rough location of launch, those are fact-based and solid.

2. There is minimal and inconclusive evidence in the photo to determine that the bird was heading south. Based solely on the apparent arc of the exhaust plume, which can be interpreted to visually show the missile beginning to take a slight easterly "lean" which would indicate a southward trajectory, the apparent vector of the plume also supports a near-directly northerly loft, which would be the shortest "over-the-pole" direction of travel. It's not literally flying over the north pole but will follow the circle route because it's shortest.

1. The missile shown is also in it's initial launch stage and has traveled vertically around 15,000 feet, but its plume still shows a near vertical trajectory. This is a high-loft shot. High loft trajectories are a signature of a shot at very distant targets. There is simply no target of particular value to the SOUTH of Seattle that is distant enough to require a high loft, and the missile plume would take a SHARPER bend for closer targets. It's still gonna go ballistic, but it's going to get onto its lateral course quickly. With its velocity, it has to do this.

>>11023829

So you're basically saying the exhaust plume looks that way because it's arcing almost straight over the camera, which is a near due south shot.

A shot on the reciprocal bearing also produces the same apparent plume. It's just an optical illusion.

>>11023929

I agree that it's behind the island. How does that change the geometry of the launch? It doesn't. The plume looks the same on the exact opposite bearing - that's the optical illusion.

And the opposite bearing is NORTH.

>>11023997

Two-dimensional thinking. Not gonna cut it.

Do you see your first pic? Lean the line slightly left. Now, lean the line slightly right.

Now, imagine you are due south of the line. If the line bends to the south, that's what it looks like.

And if the line bends to the north, that's ALSO what it looks like.

Now explain why your 2nd picture wouldn't be a more accurate representation of what you should see with a launch to the south, based on the most likely targets. And explain WHY a Trident D-5 would do a high loft for targets that close to it in the south…because that's what it's doing.

It's going north.