I think we suddenly want McCain to live 6 more weeks?
Under the most common reading of the state’s election laws, if McCain leaves the Senate before May 30, the ensuing special election would follow the same schedule as a regular midterm one: Party primaries would be held in August, and then the race would be decided on Nov. 6. But if McCain were to leave after May 30, his appointed successor would most likely get a free ride until 2020. Given the way the current political winds are blowing, both nationally and in Arizona, the two parties’ electoral preferences are clear even if neither will say them aloud for obvious reasons: Republicans would rather defend the seat in 2020; Democrats would prefer to expand the battleground map this fall.
At the risk of going too far down this particular rabbit hole, a Senate special election running parallel to the regularly scheduled one in Arizona has the potential to get particularly messy. Consider the current crop of Republicans running to replace retiring GOP Sen. Jeff Flake, which includes establishment favorite Rep. Martha McSally and two hard-liners in former state Sen. Kelli Ward and disgraced former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.