where is link to this cernovich twat?
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/10/26/no_really_–_dont_pay_attention_to_early_voting_data_144527.html
No, Really – Don't Pay Attention to Early Voting Data
ANALYSIS .By Sean Trende - RCP Staff
But we could also contextualize this by noting that at a similar point in 2016, Democrats had a 13.1-percentage-point lead there in early voting. In other words, Democrats are doing worse than they were at this point four years ago (and much worse than they were in 2012). Actually, with a week to go early voting is looking about the same as it did at the end of 2016 (when Democrats had a 9.8-percentage-point lead at the end), and that wasn’t a great year for them. For that matter, African American voters were 22% of the early electorate in 2016; at this point they are 20.5% of the electorate. That’s probably not what we would expect in a Democratic wave year when Republicans are being encouraged to vote on Election Day and Democrats are supposedly avoiding it.