10 days = Q post on Nov. 2
Gundlach: Trump Will Win Next Week, And By 2027 "There Will Be Some Sort Of Revolution"
Wed, 10/28/2020 - 08:14
Back at the start of 2016, when nobody else would even consider such an outcome, DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeff Gundlach shocked the economic, financial and political establishments when during the January Barron's roundtable of that year, he predicted that Donald Trump would become the next US president. He was right.
Fast forward to today when one week before the elections, and in an environment when most polls predict that Biden will crush Trump and where Nate Silver gives Trump just as 13% chance of defeating Trump, Jeffrey Gundlach is predicting another victory for President Donald Trump.
As Financial Advisor magazine reported, during a Tuesday webcast as part of Schwab’s 2020 IMPACT conference, Gundlach said that despite polls, analysis and betting odds that suggest otherwise, Trump is likely to outpace former Democratic vice president Joe Biden in the contest.
"The polls right now say he isn’t going to win, but they said that four years ago," said Gundlach referring to the following chart.
"Mind you, my conviction is way lower than it was four years ago. But back in [that period], when Trump was little more than an asterisk in the betting odds, I predicted he was going to win. This one is much more murky, but in my eyes, it favors a Trump win."
Addressing the elephant in the room, Gundlach said that public political polls are often "designed to create impressions" rather than illustrate reality, said Gundlach, and shouldn’t be trusted (for more on this read our post from 2016 "New Podesta Email Exposes Playbook For Rigging Polls Through "Oversamples"). He also argued that many Trump voters are unwilling to engage with pollsters and the media because they fear retribution for their political beliefs, also known as the "shy voter" phenomenon according to which "Over 10% Of Trump Voters Won't Admit Preferences To Pollsters." Biden also faces an enthusiasm problem, said Gundlach.
Gundlach then went on to crush hopes of a Blue Wave, arguing that Republicans will likely keep the Senate regardless of who wins – mainly because of uncertainty around Biden. "Some people will hedge their bets and split their vote towards retaining the Republican Senate because they view Biden as risky," said Gundlach, who noted that Trump is often portrayed as riskier than Biden. And yet, in the four years of his presidency, there have been no international conflicts, despite some outrageous and bellicose language.
"You might dislike Trump or some of his policies, but risk is not what you’re getting with him, particularly compared to turning the presidency over to another party, and particularly when that party’s candidate isn’t saying what some of his policy positions are."
If Gundlach is wrong, and Biden wins the election and eventually rolls back or eliminates the corporate tax reduction from 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, U.S. equity valuations would increase sharply, said the DoubleLine CEO, but he added that the reduction in after-tax earnings would mean that stock prices would not appreciate. Interest rates, volatility and inflation would also rise, said Gundlach…
…At this point Gundlach went "full Zero Hedge", and predicted that by 2027, economic inequality, strained by fiscal and monetary policy, would come to the point of some sort of revolution, which would put the 2024 presidential election directly in the path of massive social, economic and political change. Which, incidentally, is more or less everything that we have been saying for the past 12 years.
"When I said that I think Trump is going to win in 2016, I also said that if you think 2016 is weird, just wait for 2020,” said Gundlach.
"Well, if you think 2020 is weird, just wait until 2024. You ain’t seen nothing yet."
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/gundlach-trump-will-win-next-week-because-polls-are-designed-create-impressions
@Andy Ngo
6h ago
Footage from inside a Philadelphia business shows looters destroying the place within seconds during the BLM riot.
https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1321332365508153344
Melbourne residents give laughable excuses for breaking lockdown rules, as mind-boggling $20 MILLION in fines issued
28 Oct, 2020 11:58 / Updated 1 hour ago
As Melbourne’s roughly five million residents emerge from the latest strict coronavirus lockdown, reports of baffling excuses given by rulebreakers to police to avoid heavy fines are appearing online.
All told, authorities in Victoria amassed a whopping AUS $20.15 million (US $14.29 million) from roughly 13,900 fines issued during the second lockdown.
Most of the fines issued were for breaches of public health directives: 2,856 Melburnians were caught breaking curfew (8pm until 5am), 1,935 people were caught not wearing masks while some 1,768 drivers were caught trying to break the travel restrictions, among a myriad of other offenses. However, among the thousands of potentially infectious infractions were some truly outlandish tales.
One man was found by police 5km from home sitting in his car at 7:30pm Sunday. He told police he was attempting to escape his housemate’s particularly loud lovemaking session with his girlfriend. Unfortunately, he was slapped with a $1,652 fine for breaching COVID-19 restrictions.
Two men and a woman were fined when they were caught partying in an inflatable dinghy listening to music and drinking alcohol on September 6.
Four sex workers were fined while on a break after police were called over concerns about a high number of men coming and going to a single address.
Meanwhile, one man was caught travelling at 3:40am near Maroondah, a city outside Melbourne, telling police he urgently needed to feed his uncle's horses. Another man was found at a friend's home claiming he was practicing to become a professional DJ.
One man was reportedly fined for not wearing a mask, claiming he had a bad pimple on his chin preventing him from adhering to the strict health guidelines…
https://www.rt.com/news/504764-melbourne-covid19-excuses-lockdown-breaches/