Anonymous ID: a0adbf Oct. 28, 2020, 6:34 a.m. No.11321906   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>1934 >>2034

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/522957-dont-believe-the-polls-trump-is-winning-bigly

We predict that President Trump is going to win the 2020 presidential election — and win big.

 

While the majority of the polls suggest that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is leading, or at best that it’s close, those polls suffer from at least three problems.

 

First, the tone of the questions. There is significant evidence from behavioral psychology that suggests that the way a question is framed predetermines the range of potential answers. In fact, Gallup has found that respondents can answer very differently to questions with the same topic even in the same survey based on the language that’s used. And the use of metaphors can even dwarf the importance of preexisting differences between Republicans and Democrats.

 

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One of the reasons respondents do that is because of a tendency to give socially desirable answers, which was the case especially during the 2016 election. Most people don’t like confrontation, so the easiest, albeit not necessarily the best, solution is to avoid it. Right now, saying that you’re voting for Trump/Pence is often not the socially desirable answer. In fact, a recent poll by the Cato Institute suggests that nearly two-thirds of Americans say that the political climate is sufficiently harsh that they don’t want to give their genuine opinion about politics.

 

Second, the sample of respondents. Who responds depends on many factors, including the medium (e.g., landline versus cellphone), the location, the sample size and demographic factors. Moreover, the pool of respondents is not necessarily the same as the pool of likely voters. Even though election polls all contain a margin of error, that margin of error is unreliable if the underlying sample does not reflect the population. Researchers have also identified self-screening as the major contributing factor to the polling failures during the 2016 election cycle.

 

For example, distrust of pollsters also leads to lower response rates for Trump supporters. Rasmussen finds that 17 percent of likely U.S. voters who “strongly approve” of the job Trump is doing say they are less likely to let others know how they intend to vote in the upcoming election. By comparison, only 8 percent of those who “strongly disapprove” of the president’s performance say the same.

 

While proper sampling methodology matters more than the size, having a representative sample with enough people still helps considerably. Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group notes how their work to create minimum samples sizes of 1,000 voters, added to their work to doggedly pursue the “quiet Trump voter,” led to Trafalgar being one of the most successful battleground polling firms in the country in 2016. Cahaly explains that “we don’t do a state with less than a thousand. You see these polls, 400, 500, 600 people for a state. I don’t buy that. Your margin of error is far too high.”

 

Third, the content of the current news cycle. What’s going on in a particular moment in time can influence voter attitudes, particularly in swing states. For example, the recent revelation of Hunter Biden’s hidden emails on his laptop, coupled with the link to his father, has come at an opportune time for the president. Moreover, if the economic recovery continues, the good news may continue putting wind in Trump’s sails.

 

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Admittedly, no poll is perfect. That’s why RealClearPolitics takes a step forward by “averaging out” these errors across polls. But “averaging out” only works when errors are made in both directions. Here, many polls make errors primarily in one direction, so the average will still reflect some of the biases that exist.

 

Gallup conducted a recent survey finding that 56 percent of respondents report that they are better off than they were four years ago, which is striking given that we are in the midst of a pandemic with a recovering labor market and deepening political polarization.

 

We delved a little deeper into the data from Gallup, coupled with voter registration data, for eight swing states. We find that states with a higher proportion of people who report that they are thriving have a lower polling average for Biden and a higher one for Trump. What’s even more telling is that there’s a big gap between the percentage of people who say they’re thriving and the percentage who say they’re voting for Biden. For example, that gap is 5.3 percentage points in Pennsylvania.

 

 

We don’t pretend to have all the answers, but we do have some of the right questions. How are people actually feeling? Surveys are great when respondents know what they’re answering and when the sample is representative, but surveys can be misleading otherwise.

Anonymous ID: a0adbf Oct. 28, 2020, 6:44 a.m. No.11322011   🗄️.is 🔗kun

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/breaking-exclusive-hunter-biden-pictures-half-naked-exposed-certain-minor-joe-biden-lying/ BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: Hunter Biden Pictures of Himself Disrobed and Exposed With Certain Minor — Joe Biden Is Lying

By Joe Hoft

Published October 28, 2020 at 8:00am

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Disclaimer: We spoke with our attorney on the explosive nature of this post and delayed it’s publication. There are more photos of the certain minor in question but we decided not to include them in this report due to legal concerns.

 

Text messages, videos and pictures were recently discovered on Hunter Biden’s laptop that put Hunter and the Biden family in very compromising situations.

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Perhaps the most disturbing revelations in the many files on the Hunter Biden laptop is the family’s actions surrounding Hunter’s inappropriate and possibly criminal behavior with a certain minor.

Former VP Joe Biden claimed the controversy with Hunter Biden’s laptop was created by Russia. Evidence shows this is not the case.

 

TRENDING: BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: Hunter Biden's "RUSSIAN BLACKMAIL PHOTOS" Uncovered - Hunter with Russians in Hollywood

 

Interviewer: “Questions and controversy continue today about Hunter Biden, your son-“

 

Biden: “There is no controversy about my son. That’s a hell of a lie. That’s a flat lie because the president has nothing to run on… it’s classic Trump.” pic.twitter.com/MQQGvddrHO

 

— Andrew Solender (@AndrewSolender) October 24, 2020

 

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Biden does not want you to believe your own eyes. Of course, Joe Biden is the one who is lying.

 

On Monday we shared five texts related to the Biden family’s cover up of Hunter’s actions with a minor. The text messages involved Hunter Biden and his immediate family and a friend. The text messages confirmed Joe Biden was looped in on Hunter’s illegal activity with a certain minor and attempted to cover it up.

 

Below are those texts.

 

Hunter Biden sent the following text to a family friend where he shares that someone is accusing him of being sexually inappropriate around her daughter. This is why Hunter claims he is not allowed to be alone with that person:

 

 

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In another text message from Hunter to a family friend, Hunter shares that his mother, Jill Biden, propagates the claims that Hunter is sexually inappropriate around the children and VP Joe Biden is aware as well:

 

 

In a third text message sent to Hunter Biden from his Uncle Jim Biden, former Vice President Joe Biden’s brother, Uncle Jim shares that both he and former VP Joe Biden are upset with accusations of impropriety but they don’t believe them. Jim and Joe Biden want to discuss with Hunter so they can all get their stories straight:

 

 

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In an email to colleague and fellow board member on Burisma, the now felon Devon Archer, Hunter explains how he is not allowed to be around a certain person without his father, Joe Biden, being there:

 

 

And a fifth text message shows Hunter explaining to a certain person that her mom told former VP Joe Biden that she would call the police if Hunter tried to see that person:

 

 

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These texts paint a horrible picture of what is going on behind closed doors in the Biden family.

 

More importantly they reveal how the Biden family looked the other way and defended Hunter when they found out he may have been acting criminally with a certain minor.

 

Today we have uncovered pictures that back up the texts above.

As we reported above, Joe Biden told a reporter just two days ago that the controversy with his son Hunter “was a hell of a lie!”

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We now have proof that Hunter was exposing himself for naked selfies with a certain minor in the same room!

 

This first picture (that has been heavily redacted) shows Hunter taking a photo of himself again fully exposed with a certain minor in the room on the bed.

 

 

This second picture shows Hunter in bed. The certain minor is next to him the bed in the photo.

 

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The Biden household has many secrets. Some secrets involved Hunter and a minor. Why was this hidden from the public or from the police?

Was this because it would tarnish Joe’s political image? Most importantly, is the child safe now?

This is not Russian disinformation.

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It’s coming from the Biden nuclear family.

There are no records that any of this was brought to the attention of the police by the Biden family.