>https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/11/october_surprise_this_race_is_over_.html
We now know thanks to October who will win on November 3. The reason we know is found in early voting data.
October voting is no longer the exclusive domain of the Democratic Party. Both parties vote early and in ever-increasing numbers. Which makes the October vote an early “action report” on the election outcome that’s more reality based than the polls or the mainstream media.
Who you vote for is a secret. When, where, and how many voters cast their ballots is not. It’s data. In this case, data in its most meaningful form: the number of early votes by registered Democrats and the number of early votes by registered Republicans.
Convincing the other party’s voters to vote for your candidate is a long shot. Getting your voters to turn out for your candidate is how elections are won. It’s called GOTV, for Get Out The Vote.
GOTV plus voter enthusiasm invariably equals winning results at the polls.
In the final weeks of the campaign, enthusiasm for Donald Trump, demonstrated at multiple daily rallies, has been far beyond what it was four years ago. Will enthusiasm help produce another winning voter turnout for Trump?
Spoiler alert: Data generated by early voting says “yes.”
To understand why history will likely repeat itself, it’s important to look at voter turnout in party strongholds, districts where support is expected to be high. The highest Democratic voting percentages are often in districts with large majorities of African-American voters. The black vote is a key component in the strategy of every Democratic election campaign, especially Joe Biden’s. Accordingly, black turnout provides the best way to measure enthusiasm for the Democratic Party’s candidate and ultimately to project a winner.
Take North Carolina. In 2012, black voter turnout for Barack Obama was understandably high. Black voters made up 27 percent of North Carolina’s total number of voters that year. In 2016, Hillary Clinton’s turnout among blacks in the Tar Heel state dropped to 22 percent. This year, with Biden running, North Carolina’s black turnout for early voting is 19.5 percent.
Then there’s this: the black vote that is coming out is not all coming out for the Democrat.
A poll by the University of New Orleans of likely Louisiana voters reported that 28 percent of blacks preferred Donald Trump. That’s driven largely by black men, among whom Trump's 43 percent edges Biden's 42 percent.
A Rasmussen national survey, reflecting the same trend, shows Trump's approval among likely black voters at 46 percent. Approval does not translate directly into votes, but there is too much action in the form of early turnout behind that number to dismiss it.
In 2016, Trump asked African-Americans what they had to lose by backing him instead of his Hillary Clinton. Apparently, now they know. Under Trump, blacks saw record employment, the creation of economic opportunity zones, increased funding for black colleges, and the lowest incarceration rate for blacks since 1995.
If the most reliable Democratic voting bloc loses its enthusiasm for Biden, his chances in the South and elsewhere disappear.