here are some old notes on Pennsylvania
States where Trump has more votes already in 2020 than he got in 2016
Wisconsin
2016 - 1,409,000
2020 - 1,436,000
North Carolina
2016 - 2,339,000
2020 = 2,732,000
Georgia
2016 - 2,068,000
2020 - 2,366,000
Michigan
2016 - 2,279,000
2020 -
2012
Philadelphia 98.6% Reporting B. Obama (i) Dem 85.2% 557,024
M. Romney GOP 14.1% 91,840
G. Johnson Lib 0.4% 2,721
J. Stein Grn 0.3% 2,013
2016
Philadelphia
108,748 trump
584,025 clinton
2020 Philly
289K - Biden
101K - Trump
with 48% of estimated votes reported
&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
2020 top Biden precincts
SWATARA TOWNSHIP–6TH PRECINCT 1010
SUSQUEHANNA TWP–9TH WARD 1245
SUSQUEHANNA TWP–8TH WARD 1199
SUSQUEHANNA TWP–7TH WARD 1182
SUSQUEHANNA TWP–3RD WARD 1272
SUSQUEHANNA TWP–2ND WARD 1197
SUSQUEHANNA TWP–1ST WARD 1054
DERRY TOWNSHIP–15TH PRECINCT 1102
LOWER PAXTON TOWNSHIP 15783 13456 420 120
SUSQUEHANA TOWNSHIP 9981 4682 178 61
CITY OF HARRISBURG 15338 2616 208 77
*****
Philly at 56% - 350K to 105K
****
Trump did much much better in Philly this time.
That's probably why they stopped counting.
They probably had some sort of plan that had Biden winning Philly like Obama won Philly and Hillary won Philly.
475K margin for Hillary, 467K margin for Obama
2016 Hillary 584K
2020 Biden 289K partial
2016 Trump 108K
2020 Trump 101K partial
This year, Trump had the same amount of Philly votes as 2016, and Biden had 300K fewer than Hillary. This has been a partial count.
Biden is going to get votes out of Philly, but not that many. 300K outstanding votes?
given Biden 200k? Where are they going to get the rest of the 500K that they need? Especially since it's Philly that gets them wins, and they lose almost everywhere else?
In 2016, Trump won all but 11 counties.
In 2020, Trump is winning all but 7 counties.
Just by looking at the map, Trump crushed it.
But I think you need to drill down to the precinct level to really figure it out. There appear to be places where Trump outperformed. However, this could be a situation where
the best precincts for Biden haven't come in. Cumberland County, Franklin County are both counties where Trump overperformed 2016. By looking at the map.
https://www.ccpa.net/DocumentCenter/View/36907/2020-General-Election-Voting-Totals
Cumberland County PA
88,562 regular ballots
53,172 mail in ballots received
61K Trump
24K Biden
(3K 3rd parties)
The election day ballots are counted, the mail in ballots are not
*
Absentee/Mail-In ballots received by 8:00pm, Tuesday, November 3, 2020 and not
yet canvassed. Ballot canvassing will begin at 9:00am, Wednesday, November 4,
2020.
2016
69 k trump
47 k clinton
If Bidens numbers get to Clintons numbers, that could mean that Biden wins Cumberland County mail ins 23K to 8K, picking up 15K.
I don't think Biden is getting that result.
However, when you look at, like, York County, Trump did about as well. Turnout was up, both candidates got more votes in 2020.
York County 2020
142K Trump
85K Biden
York County 2016
128K Trump
68K Biden
Trump underperformed in York County. Biden picked up 3K in York County.
Biden did much better than Clinton in Dauphin County, weirdly so. I'm thinking VOTER FRAUD of some sort.
2016 Clinton - 64K
2016 Trump - 60K
2020 Biden - 76K
2020 Trump - 64K
Ds up 12K, Trump up 4K, net 8K? I would look closely to see how and where they got those 12K new votes.
Compare precinct by precinct. You have blacks in Harrisburg. I'd compare Harrisburg precinct by Harrisburg precinct.
2016 v 2020. Did some precinct just get 500 new voters?
Looking also at Pennsylvania, from what I see is that in Western and Northern PA, Trump did outperform. 65% became 75% and turnout was up. There were a lot of extra 1,2,3Ks
in the many small counties.
https://www.dauphinc.org/election/Races?key=28&race=PRESIDENTIAL%20ELECTORS 2020 Dauphin County precinct by precinct
https://www.dauphinc.org/electionarchive/PrecinctByRace?key=19&race=PRESIDENTIAL%20ELECTORS 2016 Dauphin County precinct by precinct.
One way to go about this is to check the high numbers in a precinct in 2020 and see what that precinct did in 2016.