RED5
Biden, an old foreign policy hand, has made clear that he will espouse a centrist, Obama-style foreign policy emphasizing diplomacy, alliances and weariness towards employing military force against other states.
That orientation remains distinct from a more left-wing “progressive” foreign policy advocating significant cuts to the U.S. military, its global presence and operations against non-state actors.
However, even amongst center-left foreign policy thinkers, there is a divide (detailed in this article by Thomas Wright) between old guard “restorationists” advocating a general resumption of Obama-era foreign policy, and “reformers” seeking more aggressive alliance building and industrial policy to confront challenges posed by China, climate change and the threat to democracy posed by authoritarian populism….
Biden will seek to resuscitate today’s threadbare State Department, which under Trump suffered from major funding cuts, increasingly politicized leadership, and mass firings and resignations of career foreign service officers. There is also talk of ending the longstanding practice of awarding plum ambassadorships to unqualified political donors—but Biden has declined to commit to that.
The diplomatic revival will also see the U.S. again seek a proactive presence in international institutions like the United Nations and World Health Organization, and rejoin treaties like the Paris Climate Accord—though with reduced impact due to Biden’s likely inability to get climate legislation to pass should Republicans retain the Senate. Nonetheless, U.S. participation will mark a change of course after years of disdain and diminishing participation from Washington in such institutions.
Biden may also seek to revive the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran. However, given the violent events that transpired in 2019-2020 after the U.S. withdrew, it is unclear whether the former status quo can be restored, or whether Biden will take a different approach to Tehran.
Whether a Biden administration will seek to salvage anything from Trump’s outreach to North Korea, which failed to curb Pyongyang’s development of nuclear weapons, also remains to be seen….
Russia, its nuclear arsenal and its ability to muster significant conventional land forces in Europe will also factor into U.S. defense policy, particularly as Moscow is implicated in attempts to manipulate U.S. elections.
Biden will undoubtedly be a harsher critic than Trump of norm-violating acts by Moscow such as blatant assassinations abroad. But given the focus on China, Biden is unlikely to deliberately escalate existing conflicts. Arguably, concern with Russian security threats has attenuated in recent years as economic constraints to Russia’s military modernization become more evident.
One challenge remains that the heavy mechanized land forces most relevant to deterring Russian threats to NATO are very different from the maritime capabilities most relevant to confronting China, which is seen as the bigger long-term priority. On the other hand, Pentagon investments in hypersonic missiles, cyber and electronic warfare, and space capabilities may be relevant to addressing both challenges.
Long article, only pieces.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2020/11/07/how-president-biden-presidency-could-reshape-us-national-security/?sh=1c0a9b8f317b