Game theory
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Game Theory in Military Decision: An Anecdote
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Introduction
Game theory is the analysis of strategic interaction among rational decision-makers using mathematical models. This is applied in various fields of research to explain why an person makes a specific decision and how one individual's decisions influence others.
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In this paper, we have used different strategies for U.S Army Vs Japanese army where winning army is assumed to be U.S. Army and Japanese Army Vs. U.S. Army where Japanese army is considered to win the battle. Based on the strategies, different methodologies are adopted to show the how the respective win the title in the battle.
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Plot
The plot revolves around the battle between U.S Army (under the guidance of General Kenney) and Japanese Army. Where General Kenney of allied air force (US) struggled to regain island of new guinea from the hands of Japanese Army. Some information leaked after Japanese action that is Japanese Army will assemble at Rabaul and then sailing over to Lae. So General Kenney and his troops estimated that Japanese Army take 3 days to sail from Rabaul to Lae. General wants to maximize the no. of sailing days by air attack. They had two routes to sail through, Southern direction (clear weather) and the northern direction (worst climatic conditions).So General had a clear idea that one of the routes will be used. So, he proceeded with the following strategies:
i. Mission(place)
ii. Situation and course of action
iii. Analysis of opponent course of action
iv. Comparingofequipments
v. Decision
The northern area was covered by aircrafts and few aircrafts were roaming around southern area just to inform the arrival of the enemy. General’s plan was sending the few attacking aircrafts towards southern direction and other equipped attacking aircrafts towards northern direction. If the Japanese Army chooses the northern direction to sail it guarantees two more days of extension for the Japanese army to reach the shore by attacking them with aircrafts. Else, they happen/choose to sail in southern direction it might take 1-3 more days of extension due to attacking by aircrafts.
By comparing the probability of arriving and with some strategies, the General chose the northern direction because it guarantees two days of extension by attack of aircraft.
Japanese Army, had two choices:
i. Northern direction (poor weather and so less visibility)
ii. Southern direction
In favour of General’s prediction Japanese Army followed northern route and suffered in the attack for two days. And there was a struggle in reaching the shore due to explosion which extended their arrival to shore by two more days. The main motive of this paper is to analyse the usage of game theory in real-time application in various fields in particularly military forces.
Conclusion
Usage of different strategies based on decision making reflects the result of any battle. We can conclude that decision making plays an important role in determining success. However, in our plot General Kenney’s strategy was the turning point for winning of the battle. And these strategies will probably yield success and thus we can continue to employ these strategies in a battle to assist the decision makers. We conclude that game theory provides insights to military planning and strategy.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/912/6/062043/pdf