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BH303 US Navy P-3 Orion out of Pt. Mugu just west of the Channel Islands
UNTIL28 US Navy E-6B Mercury just getting started out of Travis AFB and nw
several (including me) up last night and outside
Not that big of a group but it does matter
Two Key Economic Dates in December and economic schedule for week of Nov 22
December 12th: Possible Government shutdown. From the WaPo: White House chief of staff ‘can’t guarantee’ U.S. government will avert December shutdown
-Congress and the White House have until Dec. 11 to approve new spending legislation to prevent the federal government from shutting down in the middle of a pandemic and amid a surge in coronavirus cases. Meadows said he was hopeful an agreement would be reached but did not rule out that an impasse. There has already been two government shutdowns during President Trump’s four years in office, one lasting more than a month.
It is possible that there will be a shutdown from December 12th through January 20th. This would eclipse the previous longest government shutdown of 35 days in 2018-2019.
December 26th: End of CARES Act provisions. There are two COVID related unemployment programs that end on December 26th.
The first is the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) Program. This is a special program that provides up to 39 weeks of benefits for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.
-PUA is not payable for any week of unemployment ending after December 31, 2020. Accordingly, in states where the week of unemployment ends on a Saturday, the last week that PUA may be paid is the week ending December 26, 2020. For states where the week of unemployment ends on a Sunday, the last week that PUA is payable is the week ending December 27, 2020.
As of October 31st, in the most recent report (lags weekly claims), there were 8.7 million receiving PUA benefits (there are questions about these numbers).
The second is the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) Program. This program "provides up to 13 additional weeks of benefits to individuals who have exhausted their regular unemployment compensation (UC) entitlement". Just like the PUA, this program ends on December 26th. There are currently 4.4 million people receiving these extended benefits, and this has been increasing sharply. On October 1st, about 1.8 million people were receiving benefits from the PEUC, so this has most than doubled over the last month as people exhaust their regular benefits. This number will probably continue to increase over the next month.
Note that if people get laid off again, as COVID surges, many more people could exhaust their regular benefits.
So there are significant fiscal issues that need to be addressed in December.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/11/two-key-economic-dates-in-december.html
Economic schedule for Week of Nov 22
- Monday, November 16th -
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 13.8, up from 10.5.
- Tuesday, November 17th -
8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for October will be released. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in retail sales.
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October.
The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 72.4%.
10:00 AM: The November NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 85, unchanged from 85. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit
- Wednesday, November 18th -
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for October.
The consensus is for 1.460 million SAAR, up from 1.415 million SAAR.
During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
- Thursday, November 19th -
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is initial claims decreased to 700 thousand from 709 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 24.0, down from 32.3.
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 6.45 million SAAR, down from 6.54 million in September.
11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for November.
- Friday, November 20th -
10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for October 2019