https://www.helios-health.com/what-we-do/covid-20
https://archive.is/yt0W5
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The original aim was not to “defeat” the virus once and for all. It was always about ensuring that as few people as possible die from the severe lung disease (Covid-19 SARI) that the virus can cause and that the healthcare system does not become overwhelmed or collapse because of the number of Covid cases. However, this has rarely been talked about for some time now. We asked ourselves how these two aspects were reflected in the first Covid-19 wave in German hospitals. Did we have more or fewer patients due to SARI than in the same period in 2019 (when Covid-19 did not yet exist)? And how many people died from it in comparison to 2019?
The study was conducted by IQM, a non-profit quality initiative in the German healthcare system. 421 hospitals took part in the study, with roughly equal representation of all funding structures i.e. public, university, non-profit/faith-based and private hospitals. The study covers almost 2.8 million hospital cases, i.e. about a quarter of all inpatients during the period in question from March to August 2020. The patients categorized as having Covid-19 in this study not only included those who actually tested positive for Covid, but (also) all those treated with (only) suspected Covid symptoms according to Covid protocols.
For Germany, this study leads to three main findings:
1.In 2020 there were fewer SARI cases than in 2019.
2.In 2020 there were fewer patients in intensive care units and there were also less cases of ventilation than in 2019.
3.The number of suspected Covid cases was 3 times higher than the numberof proven Covid cases. In other words: only a quarter of all those treated with suspected Covid infection were proven to be Covid-positive.
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In Covid-related SARI cases, 22.9 % of patients died in hospital, whereas in cases unrelated to Covid, 12.4 % died.
The high Covid-19-related SARI mortality rate shows how dangerous this disease is, especially for elderly people. However, the data on the number of cases is perplexing, both in terms of comparison with the previous year and also with a view to the fact that three quarters of the treated patients suspected as being Covid-positive in Germany did not definitely have Covid. In retrospect, this could make the actions of politicians and governments appear overly cautious or too fear-driven. I believe such a view would not be entirely fair as it does not take into account the circumstances and uncertainties under which decisions had to be taken in those first few weeks.
However, the fact remains that in Germany, Covid-19 has not led to more clinical SARI cases, nor to more intensive care admissions or ventilation cases. Overall, the German healthcare system was not under more strain than in previous years with a “normal” wave of influenza. It is also true that we did not take any other protective measures than the countries surrounding us, which in turn experienced significantly higher infection and mortality rates.
We can all speculate why this was the case. Was it a more disciplined approach to protective measures? Was the virus itself a weaker version? Was it the fortunate circumstance that, unlike the Spanish and Madrid for example, we did not have any major events in the time when the virus was still spreading undetected? Carnival celebrations in Germany had already happened and Easter came afterwards when a lockdown was in place. Perhaps it was a combination of all of these? There are certain to be studies on this at some point in the future, which will provide clarity.
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