Trump has a simple path to Electoral College victory WITHOUT any "D" states choosing R electors
As we await Monday's electoral college vote, and no state legislatures have acted to directly appoint electors before the appointed voting day of December 14, it's relevant to consider whether the official Electoral College outcome may swing to Trump even if the Electoral College votes Monday in the "expected" way (Biden 306, Trump 232) and there isn't a single state either switching D to R or submitting a competing R slate of Electors to Congress. The answer appears to be YES!
From the 12th Amendment: "The person having the greatest Number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed". Conventionally, 538 electors are appointed, so the "winning threshold" (50% + 1) is conventionally 270 votes. But if fewer than 538 electors are appointed, then the "winning threshold" becomes a smaller number.
From a paper by Edward Foley, Ohio State University: D. The Consequence of Not Counting Any Electoral Votes from a State? Suppose, because of a cyberattack or otherwise, it is determined pursuant to 3 U.S.C. § 15, that a state has failed to appoint any electors and therefore has not valid electoral votes to count. How is that state to be considered in the calculation of whether any candidate has won a "majority" of electoral votes, as required by the Twelfth Amendment? The amendment states: "the person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of electors appointed." Normally, the number necessary for a majority is 270 because 538 is the total number of electors nationally. But if a state chose not to participate, then presumably its number would be subtracted from the denominator of 538. Is the same true if the state wanted to participate but was prevented from doing so because of a cyberattack? What if the state thought it appointed electors, but there was a dispute about this appointment, with the consequence that Congress refused to count any electoral votes from the state?
https://lawecommons.luc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2719&context=luclj
The "expected" Electoral College vote is Biden 306, Trump 232. If the appointments from some D states are deemed null and void (either by SCOTUS, or by Congress on Jan 6), Biden's number would drop. Since this would be due to invalidation of some appointments - not electors switching votes, or alternative electors being recognized - the winning threshold (50% + 1) also falls to a smaller number. In particular, if Biden falls to 231 Electoral College votes (making it Trump 232, Biden 231) then Trump wins - without the election getting thrown to Congress for a vote by states, Trump would simply have "a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed". Game over.
This difference (306-231) is 75 electoral college votes. Interestingly, although we know there was fraud in many states, and Trump actually won many states awarded to Biden – the states we hear about (PA 20, GA 16, MI 16, AZ 11, WI 10, NV 6) total 79 electoral votes, which is a whisker over this 75 vote threshold!
This path to victory doesn't require the awarding of ANY of Biden's "swing states" to Trump. This is important, since even if the Electoral College votes exactly as expected (Biden 306, Trump 232) without even the appearance of a "competing slate" (some other Electors, not certified by a state's Governor, sending a competing set of votes to Congress), this path remains completely open. And the path is deliciously simple! All it takes is either SCOTUS or Congress to invalidate the Electoral College appointments made by these six states, on the basis that either (1) their appointment was not made in accordance with the directions in state law created by the legislature, as required by the Federal Constitution, or (2) their appointment was so tainted by fraud as to be invalid.
This is not merely that some states may have their votes thrown out, bringing Biden below 270, throwing it to the House under the 12th Amendment. If nullifying Electoral College appointments reduces the "winning threshold" below 270, this approach (nullifying votes, without replacing them with the votes of R electors) only works if Biden is brought below Trump's 232 (just striking 37 votes so Biden falls to 269 wouldn't be enough.) I find it really interesting that the states visibly in question are just enough to pass this 75 electoral college vote threshold.