Been a couple years since I looked into it, but in a nutshell, it's all about the oil/gas pipeline(s). 1 possible route causes the pipeline to go through an ally's country and another possible route doesn't. Can't remember the details, obviously, but that was the gist of it back when I still visited halfchan.
Notable if true
Please no Greta posting. I don't want to fap today.
My guess would be no. Because the same-day reporting is based on incomplete data. Each news agency just takes a guess based on ballots counted-up-until-now. That's why you see discrepancies on election night when some channels will report a state has gone to X while another channel doesn't want to make that prediction yet.