COVID-19 Update (as of 17 Dec 20)
Sauce: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
World cases: 75,270,788
World deaths: 1,667,596
CFR (Case Fatality Rate): 2.2%
Case Fatality Rate = Confirmed Deaths / Confirmed Infected
Therefore, 97.8% of folks in the World confirmed infected live.
USA total cases: 17,627,070
USA total deaths: 317,929
USA CFR: 1.8%
THerefore, 98.2% of folks in the USA confirmed infected live.
USA deaths last week: 18,194
USA cases last week: 1,544,836
USA Overall IFR (Infection Fatality Rate): 0.24%
USA Current IFR: 0.15%
Infection Fatality Rate = Confirmed Deaths / Theoretically Infected
Theoretically Infected is 7.67 times higher than Confirmed Infected
Sauce: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389
Note: this is the lowest number I have ever seen. Theoretically infected is typically expected to be 10-20 times confirmed infected.
Overall IFR is total confirmed deaths / total theoretically infected
Current IFR is total confrimed weekly deaths over last week / (total confirmed infected over last week * 7.67)
Therefore, over life of pandemic, a person has a 99.76% chance of living if infected by COVID.
Currently, a person has a 99.85% chance of living if infected by COVID
USA Current IFR for COVID = 0.15%
USA Current IFR for the Flu = 0.13%
CDC Annual Flu Burden (sauce): https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.
12k / 9 mil = 0.133%
61k / 45 mil = 0.135%
Average = 0.134%
COVID is a tad more deadly than the normal, seasonal flu. Both have a 99+ percent survival rate.
If COVID true infections are 10 times higher than confirmed infected, current COVID IFR is 0.12% lower than the IRF for the normal, seasonal flu.
Use data as you would use flu data to ascertain if you should take the new COVID vaccine.
Virus or Election?
The more you know.