Fed President: We Should Have A Discussion About Guaranteed Basic Income
Earlier today we briefly touched upon the recent chaos in 10Y yields and Eurodollars, sparked by growing source of much consternation and confusion at the Fed, namely the timing of the next QE taper, which if the 2013 example holds, would lead to a catastrophic market crash. We quoted DB's Jim Reid who wrote that "we’ve only had 7 business days this year and we’ve already had a full 360 degree tapering debate played out by the Fed." It's not just tapering, mind you: the same clueless hacks who brought the global economy beyond the edge of collapse and only the injection of $4 billion in liquidity per day ($120BN/30) is keeping everything from imploding, are just as confused about when to hike rates. Consider the following recent statements:
Bloomberg also picked up on this point and echoed our observations, writing that "Federal Reserve officials are beginning to split over when they may need to start pulling back on their massive monetary stimulus, drawing nervous glances from investors who remember how markets were roiled during the 2013 taper tantrum."
In the past week, four of the Fed’s 18 policy makers have publicly raised the prospect they may discuss reducing bond buying currently running at $120 billion a month by year’s end. In contrast, several others have called the debate premature and Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, the most senior central banker to weigh in, has said he doesn’t expect any changes before 2022.
He may not expect it, but traders are: investors ramped up yields on Treasuries to nearly 1.20%, before two strong auctions helped ease rates which were redlining to the point that stocks started selling off. It also prompted coordinated verbal intervention by two of the Fed's top three officials: Fed vice chair Clarida and governor Lael Brainard spoke on Wednesday and each sought to assure markets that no tapering, and certainly no rate hikes are coming any time soon.
To wit, Brainard pushed back against suggestions the central bank could taper its bond-buying program later this year, arguing the U.S. economy will need that monetary support for “quite some time.”
“The economy is far away from our goals in terms of both employment and inflation, and even under an optimistic outlook, it will take time to achieve substantial further progress,” Brainard said Wednesday in a virtual speech to the Canadian Association for Business Economics. “Given my baseline outlook, I expect that the current pace of purchases will remain appropriate for quite some time.”
Clarida went further - as in beyond the purposefully nebulous "quite some time" - and said that the Fed will not raise interest rates until inflation has been at 2% for a year.
“I went into this quite skeptical about makeup strategies as a practical tool for central banks. And you’ll see that there really is not much of a make-up element in this at all, other than we’re not going to lift off until we get 2% inflation for a year.”
Those two are the doves. What about the hawks?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/atlanta-fed-president-we-should-have-discussion-about-guaranteed-basic-income