Ode to C@tvid
For yearly total mortality in the United States:
https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D91F097
Click Agree
Click Request Form Tab (Top Left)
Under Section "4. Select year and month"
Select Additional Years
Scroll to Bottom of Page
Click Send
And you will get something similar to the following:
Total Deaths
2010: 2,468,435
2011: 2,515,458
2012: 2,543,279
2013: 2,596,993
2014: 2,626,418
2015: 2,712,630
2016: 2,744,248
2017: 2,813,503
2017: 2,813,503
2018: 2,839,205
2019: 2,854,838
From this data we can determine yearly increase in mortality:
increase from 2010 to 2011: 47,023
increase from 2011 to 2012: 27,821
increase from 2012 to 2013: 53,714
increase from 2013 to 2014: 29,425
increase from 2014 to 2015: 86,212
increase from 2015 to 2016: 31,618
increase from 2016 to 2017: 69,255
increase from 2017 to 2018: 25,702
increase from 2018 to 2019: 15,633
Now that we have the increase for each year we can discover a pattern:
increase from 2010 to 2011: +47,023 (high)
increase from 2011 to 2012: -27,821 (low)
increase from 2012 to 2013: +53,714 (high)
increase from 2013 to 2014: -29,425 (low)
increase from 2014 to 2015: +86,212 (high)
increase from 2015 to 2016: -31,618 (low)
increase from 2016 to 2017: +69,255 (high)
increase from 2017 to 2018: -25,702 (low)
increase from 2018 to 2019: -15,633 (low)
It looks like mortality began a downward trend in 2018 & 2019.
Now for some study of 2020.
You can get the data for 2019 and 2020 from here:
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6
Click export (Top Right)
Click CSV for Excel (Europe)
Column E in Excel is 'All Cause' (i.e. all causes)
If may help to remove all rows that do not have United States in Column A.
Summing column E data for both years gives us:
Total Deaths in the United States for All Causes
2019: 2,852,609
2020: 3,187,086
Difference: 344,447 (interesting how close this is to the 2020 c@tvid deaths noted below)
Note that there is roughly a 2,000 +- difference in the totals for 2019 from the two sources of data.
But it does give us the following pattern:
increase from 2010 to 2011: +47,023 (high)
increase from 2011 to 2012: -27,821 (low)
increase from 2012 to 2013: +53,714 (high)
increase from 2013 to 2014: -29,425 (low)
increase from 2014 to 2015: +86,212 (high)
increase from 2015 to 2016: -31,618 (low)
increase from 2016 to 2017: +69,255 (high)
increase from 2017 to 2018: -25,702 (low)
increase from 2018 to 2019: -15,633 (low)
increase from 2019 to 2020: +332,248 (stupid high)
In the 2020 data spreadsheet there are two columns regarding c@tvid, columns R & S.
Summing each column give us this:
Deaths for C@tvid (multiple causes of death): 312,228
Deaths for C@tvid (underlying cause of death): 285,472
Scroll up and down these columns and note the similarity in numbers.
Some rows have the same number.
But for most column S is slightly lower. Very slightly.
The descriptions of the the two columns do not justify the similarity in numbers. There 'could' be a deeper understanding to the description that 'may' validate the similarities. But due to some rows having the same number, it seems to imply that an additional maths step is needed.
312,228 - 285,472 = 26,756
I suggest here that 26,756 is the actual c@tvid deaths number.
If so, we should correct the totals for 2020.
First, we add both c@tvid column totals.
312,228 + 285,472 = 597,700
Second, subtract that result from the 2020 totals.
3,187,086 - 597,700 = 2,589,386
Third, we add back what is suggested to be the real c@tvid total.
2,589,386 + 26,756 = 2,616,142 (2020 total corrected mortality)
Here is the pattern with the correction:
Total Deaths
2010: 2,468,435
2011: 2,515,458
2012: 2,543,279
2013: 2,596,993
2014: 2,626,418
2015: 2,712,630
2016: 2,744,248
2017: 2,813,503
2017: 2,813,503
2018: 2,839,205
2019: 2,854,838
2020: 2,616,142 (pre-2014 numbers)
increase from 2010 to 2011: +47,023 (high)
increase from 2011 to 2012: -27,821 (low)
increase from 2012 to 2013: +53,714 (high)
increase from 2013 to 2014: -29,425 (low)
increase from 2014 to 2015: +86,212 (high)
increase from 2015 to 2016: -31,618 (low)
increase from 2016 to 2017: +69,255 (high)
increase from 2017 to 2018: -25,702 (low)
increase from 2018 to 2019: -15,633 (low)
increase from 2019 to 2020: -238,696 (stupid low)
So it appears the the downward trend dramatically continues. Considering that people stayed at home more often in 2020, it would make sense to see such a decline.
-
unable to attache xlsx spreadsheets, see abve instructions to obtain files.